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000
FXUS65 KPUB 170522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TODAY ALLOWED FOR EARLY
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE STORMS MOVED ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND ARE SPREADING EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME. AS THE STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING
EAST...THEN WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 40 AT KLHX...MID 40S AT KLAA...AND AROUND 60 AT KSPD (LIKELY
DUE TO THE RAIN THAT FELL THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING)...BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING ON THE PLAINS.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH MODELS INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS TO THE WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE AS EARLY
AS IT DID TODAY WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHOULD SEE A BIT
MORE SUN AND HAVE BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STARK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MONDAY NIGHT...NAM FORECAST MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO KANSAS BORDER EARLY ON...THEN WANING ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY MID-EVENING. WILDCARD IS
THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WHICH
SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...A
GUSH OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS OUR PLAINS. OUR
FORECAST HAS SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT
LOWERING TO ISOLATED BY SUNRISE..BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...IT SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY...WILL FEATURE FAIRLY HIGH DEW POINTS FOR OUR EASTERN CWA...UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR
WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000
J/KG...A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RETURN. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNING BEGIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE EACH DAY...AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH INTO
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LOWERING BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTER ABOUT 20Z ON MON THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB. IF ONE MOVES OVER THE
TERMINAL SITE...IT COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ISOLD TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
OF KALS...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING AT THIS TIME
AND WL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STARK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28