Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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071
FXUS65 KPUB 140549
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1049 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

...SOME SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS TOMORROW...

CURRENTLY...

DRYLINE BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE MTNS AND MOVING ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AT 2 PM. RH VALUES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE OBS. TEMPS
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE INCREASED INTO THE L/M70S WHILE TO THE
EAST TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

MTN OBS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION...ARE ALSO GUSTY WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING UP OVER THE SE PLAINS AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE OK PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY...SFC WINDS
OVER  THE PLAINS WILL TAKE ON A GENERAL NNW COMPONENT AND WEAKEN.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EAST PLAINS
LATER THIS EVENING...AND LIKEWISE I DO NOT EXPECT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TONIGHT OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. TEMPS TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH 30S IN THE BANANA BELT REGIONS. TEENS AND
20S WILL OCCUR IN THE MTNS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION.

TOMORROW...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE NW. SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE C MTNS...ESPECIALLY N OF
COTTONWOOD PASS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2-4" RANGE WITH BEST ACCUMS ON THE NW FACING
SLOPES.

IT WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS
IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE C MTNS...LA
GARITAS AND N SANGRES AND THE TOP OF PIKES PEAK. UPPER ARK RVR
VALLEY WILL ALSO BE GUSTY.

MOST OF PLAINS E OF I-25 SHOULD BE QUITE NICE WITH NOT TOO MUCH WIND
AND MILD TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
BE IN THE 40S ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...AND 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PLAINS. A 60 OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST E OF THE
MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE FROM CANON CITY S TO THE NM BORDER. VALLEYS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S...WITH 20S AND 30S MTNS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH MON...KEEPING THE ROCKY
MT REGION UNDER BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IN THE UPPER FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BRING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW TO
BASICALLY THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX
FOR MONUMENT HILL SUNDAY EVE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD...WITH MAX TEMPS ON MON CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ONSHORE EARLY
TUE...THEN CROSSES THE WESTERN US THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GATHERS STRENGTH OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL KEEP
COLORADO DRY AND WARM THROUGH WED...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER 70S BY WED AFTN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE 4
CORNERS THU MORNING AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE PAC NW
ACROSS ID AND MT. GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING BUT DISAGREE
ON PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...AS THE EC HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED TROF
CROSSING FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OF
TWO SEPARATE UPPER WAVES THAT CROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS...WITH INTERMITTENT
ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS THE WAY TO LEAN AT THIS
TIME. THU LOOKS EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AND DRY OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE
STATE...AND THAT AREA WILL FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
THU AFTN. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER FLIGHT AREA...INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN A NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND TO NEAR 60 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH TO AROUND
MONARCH PASS SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THIS
OCCURS.

ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...VFR
EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION STAYING WELL
UP IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. COULD BE SOME
GUSTY...SHIFTING WINDS AT TIMES AT TERMINAL SITES...MAINLY AT
KCOS AND KPUB. ALSO...SOME LLWS POTENTIAL FOR ALL 3 TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...PROBABILITY AND TIMING TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT IN ANY OF
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



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