Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281009
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
409 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH CURRENT DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SE PLAINS DECREASING AS
EMBEDDED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST.

TODAY...WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN VORT MAX CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NSSL WRF...HRRR AND RAP WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE PICKED UP ON FURTHER NORTH MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE
KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTS WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE
MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS TODAY BEING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. WITH COOLING ALOFT...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
30S AT THE PEAKS...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AOA 12K FT TODAY.

TONIGHT...SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE AND SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND STORMS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH AT OR BELOW NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

FRIDAY THE UPR TROF WL BE EAST OF THE STATE AND AN UPR RIDGE WL BE
BUILDING OVR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MSTR AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY OVR THE HYR
TRRN. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.  SAT AN UPR TROF OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BRING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVR THE STATE. MSTR OVR THE AREA INCREASES A LITTLE...ALTHOUGH
THE NAM SHOWS MORE MSTR AND BETTER PCPN CHANCES THAN THE GFS.  FOR
NOW WL STICK WITH JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS OVR THE HYR TRRN...BUT
IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THERE COULD BE BETTER PCPN COVERAGE
WHICH ALSO SPREADS OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD BE
AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.  SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVES ACRS
CO AND THE NAM HAS SOME PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIER.  SUN...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SERN CO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST UPR
FORCING SUN IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME ISOLD
PCPN MAY DEVELOP OVR THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SOME MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY...WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE MON OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS. THE AIR MASS
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY ON MON SO WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.  LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE CONTINUES ON TUE AND SOME ISOLD CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVR
THE HYR TRRN.  ON WED THE UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY AS AN UPR TROF
MOVES INTO THE PACNW AND THE UPR TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE
CA COAST.  MSTR STILL LOOKS LIMITED OVR THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY
JUST SEE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RESULT IN AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY MORNING  WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF ALS AND COS BY 16Z. STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...THOUGH WITH MAIN PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH...WITH KEEP VCTS AT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME
WITH BEST CHANCES OF A STORM AFFECTING THE TERMINAL AT COS. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW



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