Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271043
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME PATCHY
VFR TO MVFR STRATUS AND -SHRA THIS MORNING ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  THESE COULD AFFECT THE KCOS AND
KPUB TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
AT BOTH TAF SITES.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF INTO
THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR TO EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. KALS
WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THOSE WHICH FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
03Z FOR THE TERMINALS THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SOUTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
MON. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR COZ076>078-081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



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