Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191118
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
418 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

...DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.  NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...JUST DRY FALL WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
JUST A LITTLE SHY OF SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME WIND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 15-30 MPH.
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE PASSES.  THESE WINDS WILL BRING
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT.  FOR MOST FOLKS...JUST HIGH THIN CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL TEND TO BE A LITTLE THICKER AT
TIMES...AS LEE WAVE CLOUDINESS CYCLES THROUGH THE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT...INDICATING THAT THE CONTDVD SHOULD RECEIVE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THURSDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE STATE ON THU...BRINGING
ISOLATED SNOW TO MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR
MOST AREAS AND AROUND 50F ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS AZ AND THE 4 CORNERS ON FRI...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO DIVE TOO FAR SOUTH TO PRODUCE ANY REAL EFFECTS FOR THE
CWA...SAVE FOR ISOLATED SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND AVAILABLE PACIFIC MOISTURE BEGINS ON SAT...FEEDING
DIRECTLY INTO THE CONTDVD AND MORE SPECIFICALLY THE CENTRAL MTS. A
BROAD UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OUT OF CANADA SAT NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CO SUNDAY MORN...AND SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BEST WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL PCPN FOR THE E PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE A HIGHER TERRAIN EVENT THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO TUES. AS FOR TEMPS...SAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S...THEN COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ON SUN DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. MON AND
TUE ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FLIGHT AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED LEE WAVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES.  TOO
DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR CIGS OR PRECIPITATION. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-30 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PASSES. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...INCLUDING
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW


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