Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 311732
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MORNING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP LATER TODAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS LATER
TODAY/THIS EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT TERM PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT.  ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE DAILY OROGRAPHIC CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY TO
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INITIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
ATTEMPTING TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  SOME OF THE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ON
THE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE AS PROJECTED LOCALIZED
CAPES...LIS AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...-6C AND
35 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

IN ADDITION...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY(WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY) WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY PROJECTED TO RUN SOME
10F TO 13F WARMER EASTERN SECTIONS AND 1F TO 6F WARMER
ELSEWHERE...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RUN SOME 1F TO
6F WARMER THAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NOTED THIS MORNING OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MON...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR CO BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACRS NRN COIN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THERE WL
LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVR AND NR THE
MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACRS ERN CO...SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY MOVE ACRS THE SERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS ON MON ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON TUE THE UPR RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE AREA AS AN UPR TROF
MOVES INTO THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES.  THE WX OVR THE FORECAST AREA
GENERALLY LOOKS DRY...WITH EVEN WARMER HIGH TEMPS. TUE NIGHT A FRONT
DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS AS AN UPR TROF MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES. ON WED AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED
OVR THE PAC NW WITH WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA AND
A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS MAINLY NRN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. WED GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH JUST SOME ISOLD OR SCT PCPN
OVR THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE CENTRAL MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER IN THE EVENING HOURS...THE GFS HAS A BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND PCPN
DEVELOPING.

FOR THU THE MODELS SHOW AN UPR LOW OVR CA...WITH GENERALLY DRY SW
FLOW ALOFT OVR CO AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN. HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON FRI THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR CA
AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING
OVR CO...ALLOWING FOR BETTER PCPN CHANCES.  THE MODELS VARY ON WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE TROF ON SAT WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT OVR SRN CA
AND THE ECMWF SHOWING IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

EXPECT PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TO REMAIN VFR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TSRA COVERAGE WILL EXPAND SOMEWHAT TODAY VERSUS
SATURDAY...AND WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES
STARTING 20Z-21Z...AS STORMS WHICH INITIALLY FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DRIFT TOWARD LOWER ELEVATIONS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. TSRA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
ENDING 04Z-06Z.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON MONDAY...WITH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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