Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201159
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
459 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 459 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

...High Fire Danger East Slopes Today and Snow Showers Central
Mountains Tonight...

Weak upper disturbance approaching from the Pacific Northwest will
spread mild temperatures, wind, low humidity and high clouds across
the area today. Tonight, that same disturbance will bring snow
showers to the central mountains.

Several points along the east slopes of the mountains are already
near Red Flag conditions at this time.  Both the Fremont County
Airport near Canon City and the Spanish Peaks Airfield near
Walsenburg are currently reporting wind gusts to 24 mph with
relative humidities of 16 percent.  Each site is just 1 off the Red
Flag mark on both counts.  These conditions will only worsen and
increase as the upper disturbance nears and mixing gets underway
today.  There will be considerable amounts of high level wave
cloudiness moving across the region today which can sometimes offset
the mixing enough to curtail the fire danger.  However, humidities
are already low enough in this case that I don`t think the clouds
will be enough of a deterrent today. So, after collaboration with
the BOU and ABQ forecast offices, will go ahead and pull the trigger
on a Red Flag Warning for my eastern slope areas below 9,000 feet
today from 10 am to 5 pm. Outdoor burning or any other activities
that could start a wildfire should be postponed today in and near
those areas.

Tonight, the upper disturbance will continue to move south through
Colorado.  Moisture will thicken enough over the higher terrain of
the central mountains for snow showers to develop during the evening
and particularly past midnight.  North of Cottonwood Pass, 2 to 4
inches of snow will be possible above 10,000 feet by morning with up
to an inch of snow below 10,000 feet.  South of the Pass, local
accumulations up to an inch will be possible above 10,000 feet by
morning.  Elsewhere, mainly breezy and dry weather is expected.
There could possibly be a spotty shower or two over the Palmer
Divide region toward morning but the odds look pretty low at this
point.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 459 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

Primary meteorological issues during the longer term include
light precipitation potential favoring the central mountains and
select eastern locations Tuesday morning, above seasonal
temperatures, winds and spotty fire weather concerns at times.

Initially, passing upper disturbance will allow ongoing light
snow to continue over portions of the central mountains into
Tuesday morning. In addition, light precipitation will also be
possible over select northern and eastern portions Tuesday
morning with the passing disturbance.

Then, basically dry and unseasonably warm conditions are
anticipated over the majority of the forecast district from
later Tuesday into the weekend as latest forecast model
soundings, PV/precipitable water analysis and computer
simulations still depict strong upper ridging initially centered
along a southern California to Idaho axis at 00Z Wednesday to
slowly shift to a northern old Mexico to central Colorado
axis by this weekend.

Outside of a cooling northerly surge moving across eastern
sections Tuesday morning, expect varying degrees of eastern
Colorado surface lee-side troughing from Wednesday into the
weekend. In addition, the highest potential for more widespread
gusty winds during the longer term should be realized into Tuesday
morning and then again by next Monday and Monday night(which is
just outside my official forecast window). Also, spotty fire
weather concerns will be possible at times over portions of the
forecast district due to the unseasonably warm conditions in
combination with locally gusty winds at times.

For sensible weather from later Tuesday into Thanksgiving
weekend, the combination of the recently mentioned weather
features will allow unseasonably warm late November maximum and
minimum temperatures(some 10F to 25F degrees above climatological
averages) to be noted over the forecast district, with warmest
conditions anticipated Thanksgiving Day and Friday and possibly
into the weekend.

Overall, from Wednesday into the weekend, the average of maximum
and minimum temperatures will be more typical of either early
October or early May instead of late November, something to be
thankful for indeed, especially for all of the Thanksgiving
travelers traversing southern Colorado from later this week into
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 459 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

An upper level disturbance will approach the flight area from the
northwest today and move into the flight area tonight.  The
disturbance will bring considerable high level wave cloudiness to
the region.  Tonight, the moisture will lower and thicken enough to
produce snow showers along the Continental Divide as far south as
Monarch Pass but mainly north of Cottonwood Pass.  Conditions will
be VFR along the Divide through today.  Tonight, areas of MVFR to
LIFR flight conditions can be expected to develop over the
Continental Divide north of Cottonwood Pass with local MVFR to LIFR
conditions extending south to Monarch Pass.  Elsewhere, the winds
will be the main concern through tonight.  Gusts to 50 mph will be
possible in and near the mountains with gusts to 30 mph possible
elsewhere. VFR expected next 24 hours for the KCOS, KPUB and KALS
terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
afternoon for COZ221-222-225-229-230.

&&

$$


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