Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240545
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1145 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Updated for expiration of Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

...Intense Storm to Move through Southern Colorado Tonight and
Friday...

Still a slight chance for strong to sever storms over the far
southeast corner early this evening.  Watching that.  Also, Red Flag
Warning continues plains through the afternoon.

Blizzard expected for northern El Paso County late tonight into
Friday morning with a period of heavy, blowing snow and near zero
visibilities.  Winter Storm conditions for Teller County for the
same period with a little bit less wind due to terrain blockage but
still good amounts of snow.  Snow and Blowing Snow Advisories
elsewhere in the mountains and also along the southern I-25 corridor
across Huerfano and Las Animas Counties for fairly light snow
accumulations but some periods of blowing snow and poor visibilities
for a spell late tonight and early Friday.  High Valleys, including
the San Luis Valley, could also see a little bet of wet snow
overnight but accumulations should be pretty light. Elsewhere across
the plains, below about 6000 feet, mostly just a good rain but also
some brief wet snow possible late tonight and early Friday.
Everything shifts east pretty quickly during the afternoon, with
rain possibly mixed with wet snow at times, lingering into the mid
afternoon hours over the far eastern plains.

Other major weather happening late tonight and tomorrow will be the
wind across the plains.  Very strong sustained winds and gusts
expected to develop in the wake of a strong cold front moving south
late tonight and Friday.  Widespread 40 mph winds gusting over 65
mph possible just about everywhere over the east.  Be prepared.

All weather hazards should be winding down by the time Friday
evening rolls around. That`s it for the discussion today. Too many
other products to worry about.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Models in decent agreement with an active weather pattern through
the extended period. There is some disagreement in the finer
details of storm tracks, but wet weather will be expected across
Southern Colorado.

Friday night through Saturday...the large upper level system over
the region will continue to move east into the Missouri Valley
with high pressure over Utah spreading into Colorado. Gusty winds
will subside Friday evening as the gradient eases across the
Plains. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s
across the Plains, so protective measures may be needed for
plants. High pressure aloft will transit the region on Saturday
and move into the Central Plains by the afternoon. Highs will warm
into the 60s over the lower elevation. The next upper level storm
system will begin to move into the Continental Divide by late
afternoon and persist through Saturday night. Snow will be
confined to elevations above 9 kft through Sunday morning.

Sunday...a quick moving shortwave trough is forecast to move
across Colorado on Sunday. A cold front will arrive early in the
day with northerly winds developing across the Plains. Models in
good agreement with an band of precipitation dropping south off
the Palmer Divide and down the I-25 corridor during the morning
and early afternoon. At this time, snow looks to remain confined
to elevations above 7 kft, with rain expected in the lower
elevations. This quick moving system will transition east into the
Central Plains by Sunday night with dry conditions by Monday
morning as the next upper ridge moves out of Utah.

Monday...the next upper ridge will move across Colorado on Monday
with dry conditions expected to prevail. Afternoon highs will rise
into the lower 60s across the Plains.

Tuesday through Thursday...the next upper level storm system is
forecast to dig down the west coast into the Desert Southwest mid
week. Prolonged moist southerly flow along with several embedded
disturbances will lead to periods of higher elevation snowfall and
lower elevation rain through this time frame. The GFS and
ensembles are taking this upper system along the U.S.-Mexican
border while the ECMWF is quite a bit further north. Precipitation
chances will highly depend on how this upper system tracks across
the region.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Strong cold front continues to push south across the eastern
plains with strong northerly winds of 30-40kts gusting to 60kts
expected at COS and PUB for the rest of the night through mid
morning Friday, before diminishing through the afternoon. Echoes
starting to fill in across El Paso County and will see MVFR and
local IFR conditions in rain and mixed snow showers at COS through
the morning hours with precipitation diminishing through the late
morning. Could see slushy accumulations of around 1 inch at the
terminal, with rain/snow line between 6000-7000ft. Could see rain
showers at PUB through the early morning hours, with precipitation
chances diminishing through the mid to late morning hours. MVFR
and IFR conditions in snow showers remain possible a ALS through
the early morning hours, with up to an inch of slushy accumulations
possible at the terminal. VFR conditions and generally light
northerly winds expected at all terminals by 00Z Sat.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 5 PM MDT Friday for COZ087-088-
093>099.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MDT Friday for COZ085-086-089.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Friday for COZ079-080-085-
087-088-094.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ058-060-066-
068.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Friday for COZ072>075.

Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Friday for COZ081-082.

Blizzard Warning until noon MDT Friday for COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW



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