Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 111004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
404 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

...Less Active Today...

Patch low to mid level cloudiness was noted over the the plains this
morning while variable high level cloudiness was over the high
country. Radar indicated dry conditions over the region, although a
few light showers were likely occuring across the continental
divide. Temperatures were mild across the plains and  valleys,
although mtn tops were quite cool with readings approaching
freezing, especially across the central mtns.


Soundings show the plains will be quite stable for most, if not all,
of the day. Best chance of precip during the daylight hours will be
over the mountains, especially across the San Juans and southern
Sangre  de Cristo mtns. By late afternoon, a few storms will be
possible along the I-25 corridor. Storms are not expected to be
severe, but some gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Very
local heavy rain will be possible with any of the storms today as
quite a bit of moisture is still available.

Max temps will be mild today with readings in the upper 70s to
around 80 on the plains and 60s and 70s in the valleys.


Best chance of precip, possibly lasting well into the night, will be
across the southern tier as a disturbance moves across northern New
Mexico. likewise, best chance of precip tonight will be along the
immediate CO/NM border. Over the remainder of the region it will be
predominantly dry, especially across the plains east of the I-25
corridor. Min temps tonight are forecast to be a tad bit cooler than
this mornings forecasted lows. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Saturday and Sunday...Ongoing weather pattern is expected to persist
over the weekend, as an upper ridge remains parked to the south of
Colorado. This will keep unsettled northwest flow aloft in place
over the state. Look for a daily chance of convection, as showers
and thunderstorms are expected to initiate each day over the higher
terrain, then push east across the plains during the evening. A
stronger disturbance aloft on Sunday will likely enhance storm
activity across the eastern plains during the late aftn and evening.
Expect high temps warming into the 70s to around 80F for the high
valleys, and upper 70s to mid 80s for the plains.

Flash flooding continues to be a main concern as the ground has
become saturated from repeated showers and storms. Burn scars will
remain problematic areas.

Monday through Thursday...The upper ridge axis slides to the east
across Colorado on Monday, reaching the US Central Plains by
Tuesday. This will open the monsoon moisture tap for the Four
Corners and western Colorado, while helping to finally dry out the
eastern half of the state. Convection will be much more tied to the
higher terrain, and spotty across the eastern plains. Expect a
gradual warming trend, with max temps climbing into the mid 70s to
lower 80s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to around 90F for the
plains. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Expect predominantly VFR conditions at KCOS and KPUB next 24 hours.
Cant rule out a passing TSRA late this afternoon or evening but any
thunder should be relatively brief. Some locally heavy rain will be
possible along with the gusty winds and some small hail. In addition,
some patchy low/mid lvl clouds cant be ruled out this morning, but
probability is too low to mention in TAF at this time.

KALS may see a better chance of some rain/low clouds from late this
afternoon and especially tonight as a disturbance moves across the
CO/NM border tonight. Guidance is indicating IFR conditions at KALS
a good part of tonight.  Most, if not all, of the daylight hours
should see VFR conditions.




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