Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 031129
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
429 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AND A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO MIX DOWN THE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AT THIS TIME WITH THE COLDEST AIR...
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY MODERATING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY...AS JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL ONGOING ACROSS THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST
WINDS (GUSTING TO OVER 50KTS AT WOLF CREEK PASS OVERNIGHT) WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS IN
TACT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...MAY NEED TO END BLIZZARD WARNING ACROSS THE
SAN JUAN MTS AND REPLACE WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING...THOUGH WITH
CPW STILL GUSTING TO OVER 40 KTS...WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH THE LATEST HI RES MODELS HAVE LEADING EDGE OF COOL AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 9AM-10AM WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS
THE HIGH 50 CORRIDOR BY NOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. FRONT TO BE MARKED INITIALLY WITH
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH STRATUS SLOWLY FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SENDS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTS...UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH CONTINUES  TO SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE UVV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH
PROFILES...MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AND ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLUFFY LIGHT
SNOWFALL STACKING UP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS ALL JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER ENDING SNOWFALL WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW
MAY OCCUR IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME PERIOD. INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
WED MORNING...AND SLOWED THE END OF SNOWFALL DOWN BY A FEW HOURS
IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL (3-6 INCHES) EAST OF I-25 BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE LESSER AMOUNTS...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW.
SNOW SHOULD END ALL AREAS BY EARLY WED EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS. MAX TEMPS WED LOOK VERY COLD...WITH
TEENS AND 20S MOST AREAS. MINS WED NIGHT LOOK FAIRLY COLD AS WELL
DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER...THOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT BECOMES LIGHT
WESTERLY AND FAIRLY PRONOUNCED 700 MB WARMING DEVELOPS BY 12Z
THU...WHICH MAY KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW 0F MOST
LOCATIONS.

ON THU...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST WHILE WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
DOUBT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO MUCH MORE THAN INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS. SURFACE GRADIENT LOOKS RATHER FLAT THU AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WINDIEST/WARMEST SPOTS LIKELY NEAR THE KS BORDER
ACROSS BACA COUNTY WHERE HIGHS MAY TOUCH 40F.

UPPER RIDGE THEN REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST FROM FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE BUILDING SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
MODERATE NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. MAY SEE A FEW RATHER
DIFFUSE WAVES DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
WEAK...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF ALL BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
ZONES. WARM-UP WILL CONTINUE AT A MODERATE PACE...WITH MAXES
CLIMBING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AT COS AND PUB TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BECOME BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS COS BETWEEN 16Z-17Z AND PUB BETWEEN
17-18Z. MVFR STRATUS TO SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE. COULD SEE LIGHT
DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING AT COS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT COS AND PUB THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ059-
064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-
060-061-066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW


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