Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 140607
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1207 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF WINTER WX ADVISORIES AT MIDNIGHT. STILL
HAVE SOME ADVISORIES GOING TIL 3 AM FOR THE SANGRES...WETS AND LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

UPDATED TO CANCEL WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PIKES PEAK...TELLER
COUNTY AND NRN EL PASO COUNTY AND NORTHWEST FREMONT COUNTY...AND
TO CANCEL THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SRN EL PASO COUNTY. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME SNOW IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. ALSO UPDATED THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO ADD A LITTLE MORE
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

...SPRING STORM TO HIT HEAVIEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

VIGOROUS SPRING STORM SYSTEM IS DROPPING ACROSS UTAH TOWARD 4
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG 100 KNOT JET ON BACKSIDE
STILL DIGGING SYSTEM SOUTHWARD A BIT...BUT STARTING TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...TO BRING THE STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
LEADING EDGE OF GOOD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM IS JUST CROSSING THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR PER RADARS.  SOME
LIGHTNING EMBEDDED WITH STRIKES NOTED NORTHEAST OF BLANCA A LITTLE
EARLIER.  COULD BE QUICK BURST OF 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES...MIXED WITH GRAUPEL...ICE PELLETS...RAIN...ETC...AS THIS WAVE
OF CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS IN THE NEXT HOUR.  PROBABLY A LULL BEHIND
THAT...WITH MORE ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW A LITTLE BIT LATER AS THINGS GET
MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER DEEPENING NORTHEAST FLOW.
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS TO REMAIN INTACT AS BRUNT OF STORM HAS YET TO
MOVE THROUGH.

WESTERN MOUNTAIN ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED SO
FAR...JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...NOWHERE NEAR WARNING LEVELS.
EASTERN MOUNTAIN WARNINGS FOR THIS EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD IN
GENERAL ALTHOUGH HIGH END OF FORECAST SNOWFALL RANGES MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH. BUT...STILL...SHOULD SEE THINGS CRANK UP AND GET
MORE ORGANIZED ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS NORTHEAST FLOW
STRENGTHENS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...A TOUGHER CALL. WET SNOW
ABOVE ABOUT 5-6K TODAY...BUT NOT STICKING A WHOLE LOT DUE TO WARM
AIR/GROUND TEMPS. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR THE SNOW TO START STICKING. ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT...GENERALLY 1
TO 4 BELOW 6000 FEET. THE WARNING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...FOR 5
TO 10...MIGHT EVENTUALLY WORK OUT...BUT PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE 5
IN MOST CASES THAN THE 10. THE ADVISORY FOR FREMONT COUNTY FOR 3
TO 6 SHOULD GENERALLY WORK OUT. THE ONE FOR LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES...FOR 3 TO 6...WE WILL SEE. ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL OUT THERE
ON THE PLAINS. IN THIS CASE...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SAY IT SHOULD
HAPPEN. OF ALL AREAS...THEY COULD REALLY USE THE PRECIP...SO LETS
HOPE THIS ONE WORKS OUT. ANYWAY...THINK THAT MOST EVERYONE WILL
SEE A LEAST SOME PRECIP BEFORE ALL IS OVER...EVEN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN AREAS...SO A BENEFICIAL SPRING
STORM.

SHOULD SEE DECREASING TRENDS IN SNOWFALL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.  H7 TEMPS WILL GO DOWN TO
TRUE WINTER LEVELS IN THE MINUS TEENS BY MORNING.  ENOUGH COOLING
THAT WE COULD HAVE SOME ICY AND EVEN SNOW COVERED ROADS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING SO COULD BE A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE TO START
OFF THE WORK WEEK IN MANY AREAS. LW

.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

...MORE SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TYPICAL SPRING-IN-THE-ROCKIES PATTERN EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK INTO
LATE APRIL...AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS INTERRUPT SOME WARM SUNNY
DAYS.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EXPECT A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY ON TUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S OVER THE
PLAINS...AND TEENS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPS THEN REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SEE RESIDUAL
SNOW MELT OFF RAPIDLY.

NEXT SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WRN CO WED MORNING. PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC IN BRINGING THIS STORM ACROSS AS AN
OPEN WAVE TROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU. OVERALL...IT LOOKS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...AND MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL
COME FROM UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE MOST OF THE QPF FALL AS SNOW...WITH FAVORABLE
TIMING WED NIGHT AND H7 TEMPS FALLING TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 12 C BY
EARLY THU. QPF LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME...LOOKING AT 3-6 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
POSSIBLY A FOOT OR MORE FOR THE HIGHER MT ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRES. THERE ARE STILL A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A
DEEPER STORM SYSTEM THAN THE ONE DEPICTED BY THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS...SO WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT-AND-SEE APPROACH. SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER FEEL BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS THE HIGHER RES MODEL DATA
STARTS COMING IN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE ERN RANGES THU AFTERNOON...AND
THEN WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORT BREAK ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. A CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA WILL THEM MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE
DESERT SW...AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SERN CO BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...SO MOST OF THE
PRECIP WOULD FALL AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD TS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER COLORADO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF
THE STATE BY 21Z MONDAY. EXPECT THAT SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH AND
END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND FROM WEST
TO EAST IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. STARK


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ088-094-099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ072>075-079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...STARK



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