Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT


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