Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171748
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1048 AM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 AM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

Updated fcst to expire high wind warning which was in effect for
the Pikes Peak region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

..Windy this morning along I-25 over El Paso County...

Currently...satellite imagery indicates northwest flow spread across
the region with a weak disturbance entering into the Northern
Plains.  Areas around the Air Force Academy are quite gusty this
morning, with gusts around 60 to 80 mph.  This may cause travel
concerns this morning along I-25, before dissipating later this
morning.  Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen into the 20s to lower
30s for lows.

Today...westerly flow aloft will transition through this afternoon
with dry conditions expected through this afternoon.  Conditions
across the high country will continue to be gusty.  Mixing out
across the Plains will keep temperatures mild for this afternoon.
Highs will reach into the 50s to lower 60s for highs.

Tonight...models are indicating the potential for a high wind event
later tonight into Sunday morning.  Expect dry conditions to remain
in place across the region through tonight.  As far as cross
sectional analysis, have looked at the layers critical for high
winds.  Looks like a mountain top inversion develops late tonight,
with wave breaking and downslope potential becoming higher by
morning.  Went ahead and issues a high wind watch for the northern
portions of Teller and El Paso Counties, generally along and west of
I-25, and also for areas over the higher terrain including the Wet
Mountain Valley, and along and west of the I-25 corridor for later
tonight, lasting into Sunday morning.  This will need to be
monitored closely.  Overnight lows will be tricky and depend on
winds.  Locations along the eastern lee slopes will likely remain in
the 40s, while areas out east fall into the 20s.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

An active pattern is expected during this period as significant
mid level troughieness continues over the western CONUS. The
first concern will be a continued high wind threat early in the
period (Sunday morning) as a favorable mtn wave pattern sets up
along mtn/plains interface. The second concern will be RED FLAG
conditions developing over the plains Sunday afternoon as strong
winds and temperatures nearing 80F combine with humidity values as
low as 10%. The third concern will be a amplifying trough
developing over the 4 corners region early next week that will
likely bring snow to most areas, with the heaviest snow occuring
over the mtns, especially over the southwest mtns. Late in the
period another trough coming off the Pacific will likely bring
more active weather to the region, although guidance products show
some disagreement in its` evolution.

As per the short term forecast discussion above, a favorable mtn
wave setup will be established over the east slopes of the
southern mtns Sunday morning, and a high wind watch is in effect
for this region. The damaging wind potential will occur during the
morning hours with the winds decreasing by late morning. Winds of
60 to 70 mph will be possible on the east slopes early in the
morning, with winds gusting to 85 mph higher up.

As the morning progresses, the winds over the plains will increase
and temperatures will rise well into the 70s. This will allow for
critical fire weather conditions to develop over the plains by
late morning and last into early to mid afternoon. Guidance shows
winds decreasing after mid afternoon as the pressure gradient
lessens over the plains. A fire weather watch has been issued for
all of the plains starting late Sunday morning and lasting into
the afternoon.

By Sunday night, the deepening trough over the west will continue
to move east and moisture and wind will increase over the western
slope. This trough is not moving too fast so an extended period of
snow...heavy at times...will occur over the contdvd region, with
the southwest mtns being favored from Sunday night through
Tuesday. For now have issued winter weather hilites for the sw
mtns, but these hilites will have to be extended for most of the
other higher terrain in later forecasts.

For Monday, weather on the plains will be a bit cooler but still
unseasonably warm, especially early in the day. Near critical fire
weather conditions will once again be possible at lower
elevations. The cold front will move across the plains monday
evening.

As for the plains, overall pattern does not favor a heavy precip
event, although there will be a chance of some snow over the lower
elevations, with the best chance Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Much colder temps will move in Monday night into Tuesday
across the lower elevations.

Late in the week, another trough will affect the region. All
guidance shows this feature, but the amplitude of the trough
varies amongst the guidance. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1043 AM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with dry
conditions. However winds will increase across the region again
tonight with winds spreading into the adjacent plains again during
the overnight hours. This will lead to the potential for Low level
wind shear at COS overnight from roughly 06z through 16z. Winds
will increase from the southwest at all three taf sites tomorrow
afternoon with gusts in the 25-35 kt range. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for COZ222-226>237.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
COZ072>075-078>082-084-085-087-088.

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
for COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT



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