Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 230946
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
346 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Shallow cold front was dropping southward through the plains this
morning, bringing a shift to north winds and slightly higher
dewpoints to most areas along and east of I-25. Front looks like it
will become stationary near the NM border by mid-morning, before
lifting slowly back northward through the afternoon and evening as
surface pressure begins to fall in response to next upper wave
dropping south along the west coast. Models suggest some modest low
level moisture and instability may pool along and north of the
boundary by late afternoon, with perhaps some isolated tsra
developing along the palmer divide and near the ks border as weak
moisture convergence may be enough to generate convection. 0-6km
shear will be sufficient for a strong to severe storms if convection
can develop, although best chances for severe will likely stay just
north and east of the area where deeper instability lies. Central
mountains could also see a brief tsra or two as well, though again
coverage/intensity will be sparse/weak. Max temps will continue to
drift downward a few degf, with most noticeable cooling over the
eastern plains behind the front. Overnight, any convection will end
quickly in the evening as strongest forcing continues to stay just
north and east of the region. By early Tue morning, cold front will
slosh back southward through the plains, with perhaps enough low
level moisture for some stratus along the KS border toward sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

...Best chance of rain on Thursday...

Extended portion of the forecast still looks pretty tame, and models
are in good agreement through the end of the week and into the
weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day of the period, with highs likely
topping out in the mid to upper 80s for the Plains...and 60s to low
70s for the higher elevations. Could be a bit breezy in the
afternoon as SW winds in the 30-35 kt range mix down to the surface.
Best chance for storms late in the afternoon will be mainly over NE
CO...so have maintained nil POPs for most of the area. Risk for
severe storms could sneak into Kiowa County by late afternoon or
early eve...so could see a slight risk of SVR once again near the
KS border. SW flow pattern continues on Wed with continued warm
conditions and low threat of convection. Best chance for any precip
will be over the Pikes Pk region and Upper Arkansas Valley.

Thursday morning, the upper low to our west will finally start
moving into our area...reaching the 4 Corners area by mid day.
This will bring an increased threat of showers and storms...first to
the central and SW mountains early in the day...and then to the I-25
corridor and Plains by afternoon, as the upper low moves eastward
into KS by Thu evening. Upslope flow, especially on the backside of
the upper circulation, will put the best chance of precip over the
eastern mountains and southern Front Range. Could potentially see
some localized heavy rainfall from this system so will have to keep
an eye out for that. Severe potential looks low over the area with
generally low CAPE...but the latest NAM does bring a ribbon of
higher CAPE into extreme eastern CO in the afternoon, so will
have to see how much low-level moisture can make its way into the
Plains. Latest guidance pushes the trough eastward fairly quickly on
Friday, so should see fewer showers and storms on Friday but still
on the cool side of climatology for afternoon temps. The pattern
reloads for the weekend as quasi-zonal flow transitions to SW flow
ahead of the next trough developing over the PacNW. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Expect VFR conditions to continue at all three terminals the next 24
hours. Isolated tsra will be possible this afternoon near the Palmer
Divide, but storms should remain north of KCOS through the evening.
South winds will become gusty at all three terminals from early this
afternoon into the evening.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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