Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 132133
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
333 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation expands in coverage overnight, with heavy snow
  along the mountains, and mixed precipitation for the lower
  elevations.

- Wintry weather continues Thursday for most, with heavy snow
  continuing along the mountains, and with more mixed
  precipitation for the lower elevations.

- Accumulating snow will likely continue for both the higher
  and lower terrain, along and west of the I-25 corridor,
  Thursday night through Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Tonight: Messy weather is still expected to expand across south
central and southeastern Colorado throughout the Wednesday overnight
hours. The broad trough currently sitting over the area will
continue to push eastward as it ejects an embedded shortwave to the
northeast. This feature will continue to bring heightened ascent to
the region, especially across the eastern mountains (Ramparts,
Sangre de Cristo, and Wet Mountains), where low level flow will
start to become northeasterly behind the exiting shortwave. In
addition to that, this short wave will shove a cold front southward
late Wednesday evening, with winds briefly becoming north-
northeasterly to northeasterly behind the front, reinforcing
upsloping along the eastern mountains. Along with the forcing, flow
with this pattern will bring moisture rich air to the area, and slam
it into the mountains, particularly the eastern mountains. With both
the rising moisture and forcing, precipitation will expand in
coverage and intensity across the area, especially along the eastern
mountains. For the mountains and valleys, all snow is expected given
the colder overnight temperatures. With the favorable forcing over
the mountains, especially the eastern mountains and the uptick in
moisture, many of the mountains will experience high snowfall rates
of 1-2.5in/hr, with around 1 to 2 feet falling overnight. For the
lower elevations, a messy precipitation evolution is expected. With
increasing moisture, and the warmer nature of the system,
temperatures will be slow to fall overnight. Given this,
precipitation for much of the lower elevations will start as rain
and as the snow level drops slowly throughout the night,
precipitation will transition to snow for areas generally around and
above 6000 ft. For areas generally around and below that, much of
the lower Arkansas River Basin and eastern plains, rain and a
rain/snow mix is expected, with the mixed precipitation closer to
the terrain areas. As for temperatures, a relatively cold night is
expected. As previously mentioned, a cold front will drop southward
during this period. While this will push cooler air into the area,
cloud cover will limit maximum cooling. Given this, the plains will
fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s, the valleys dropping into the
20s, and the mountains sinking into the 10s.

Tomorrow: Thursday continues the active weather day, with widespread
precipitation, some impactful, continuing over south central and
southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, the aforementioned short wave
will continue to eject to the northeast, while a shortwave on the
western periphery of the broader trough digs southward and wraps up
into a cutoff-low. Broad ascent will continue with this pattern, and
northeasterly low-level flow will also continue, and actually
increase as it begins pulling into the developing cutoff-low. Along
with that, moisture will remain high across the area, as rich
moisture advects around the backside of the exiting shortwave. While
snow will continue across the mountains and valleys given the
forcing and moisture, the heaviest and most impactful snow will
continue along the eastern mountains given strengthening and
persistent northeasterly flow into those features. Snowfall rates of
1-2.5in/hr are anticipated to continue, and an additional 1 to 2
feet are expected along the eastern mountains throughout the day
Thursday. For the I-25 corridor and plains, a messy precipitation
evolution continues. Winds will start to become more northerly
during this period, and will enhance precipitation along higher
elevation areas, particularly along the Palmer Divide, where around
8-12 inches of heavy and wet snow are anticipated throughout the day
Thursday. For lower elevations, snow levels will hover around 5300
ft during the day, and given this, areas along the lower Arkansas
Rive Basin and the eastern plains, will experience another period of
rain and rain/snow mix, with the mixed precipitation again closer to
the terrain. Looking at temperatures, a cool and mild day is
anticipated. Cooler air behind the front will be in place, and thick
cloud cover will limit heating throughout the day. With that, the
plains and mountains will warm into the low 30s to mid 40s, and the
mountains will reach into the mid 10s to low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

The upper level low is expected to remain situated to the southwest
of the region at the start of the period, with no real movement of
its placement through the end of the work week. This will allow a
continued stream of southerly flow to usher in additional short wave
energy overhead during this time frame. Meanwhile any northerly
component to the low to mid levels will become more easterly once
again Thursday evening, with no real change to this setup expected
until closer to the mid day Friday time frame. While snow may taper
off across the central mountains Thursday evening, expect these deep
easterlies and persistent isentropic ascent well into the mountains
to support continued accumulating snow for most higher and lower
elevations along and west of the I-25 corridor Thursday night into
Friday morning/midday. Under this setup, would not be surprised to
see the continued higher snowfall rate of 1-2 inches per hour. This
setup/focus does continue into the afternoon, but most guidance in
fair agreement with this sagging south to the southern mountains and
far southern plains. Likewise, highest impacts from any remaining
snow development shift further south during the day into the
afternoon, especially across the far southern I-25 corridor.

By Friday evening into early Saturday morning, the upper low will
remain in place and even likely retrograde some during that time.
This along with some drying will keep any additional snows over the
Continental Divide, and mainly the southwest mountains. At this
time, did not make any adjustments to the end time of the current
winter headlines in place across the southwest mountains. Current
trends are suggesting another uptick in snow development during the
day Saturday though, especially as this low tries to inch closer
once again. This will be something to keep a close eye on, however,
confidence is low on the evolution of this system into the weekend.
Meanwhile during this time, snow may occasionally develop across the
southeast mountains, while most lower elevation locations remain
dry. Temperatures during this time frame are anticipated to be below
normal for most locations. Much of the weather next week will be
tied to this upper level low, which looks to meander across the
region through the forecast period. Should see a general drying and
warming trend next week, however, confidence is low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Scattered rain showers are expected to persist into early this
evening across all of the terminals, with COS having the highest
chances for precip during this time. Once again, during this time,
the relative mild conditions will keep any precipitation type as all
rain. Given the instability in place, would not be surprised to see
a few lightning strikes through early evening as well. Precipitation
coverage is expected to increase through the evening hours at both
COS and PUB. Do expect a transition to a rain snow mix and then all
snow for COS this evening into the overnight hours, while rain looks
to be the main precipitation type at PUB. Moderate to heavy snow
intensity is appearing highly likely later this evening into the
overnight hours, with visibility very easily falling below one mile
under the heavier snow. Despite the differences in precipitation
type at COS and PUB, will see developing MVFR ceilings this evening
fall to IFR later tonight into Thursday morning.

By Thursday morning, will see snow at both COS and PUB, with snow
also shifting across ALS. Snow will then be possible at all
terminals through the afternoon hours on Thursday, with some periods
of a rain snow mix possible across PUB. Similar higher intensity
snow with reduced visibility will also remain possible, especially
across COS. Some slight increase in ceilings is possible, but don`t
expect them to improve beyond low end MVFR. Steadier easterly winds
are expected across ALS, while continued east northeast winds/gusts
continue at COS and PUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT Thursday for COZ058-060-
061.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for COZ059-062-
063.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for COZ064-066-
068.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM MDT Friday for
COZ064>068.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to noon MDT Friday
for COZ069>071.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ072>075-079-
080-087-088.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for COZ076-081-082.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for COZ077-078-084.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT
Friday for COZ083-086.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Friday
for COZ085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ


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