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000
FXUS65 KPUB 142336
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
536 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER ALL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...INCLUDING SAN LUIS VALLEY.
ALSO...BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

BETTER COVERAGE OF TSRA TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY VERSUS 24 HRS AGO. WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALSO SAGGED
SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...WHICH HAS AIDED IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH
MOST STORMS...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS OVER NRN EL PASO/TELLER COUNTIES
HAVE PICKED UP ONE TO TWO TENTHS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...THOUGH RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH MORE OUTFLOW WIND THAN RAIN MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH SURFACE LOW STAYING PUT IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MODELS NOW SUGGEST
FRONT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. AS
A RESULT...DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. WELL DEFINED UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY...PRODUCING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THAN WE`VE SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED
CAPE...THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS RATHER LOW. THREAT
OF AT LEAST SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN OVER LOCAL BURN SCARS WILL BE
PRESENT WED AFTERNOON...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE SCALE
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING...AS POOL
OF 50F DEWPOINTS WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR AWAY IN NERN COLORADO.
MAX TEMPS WED SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASE...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL END UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...PRODUCING 20-40
PERCENT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISOLATED
POPS FOR THE PLAINS AND SLV WED EVE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LATE NIGHT CONVECTION FOR THE EAST...THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE PLAINS THU AFTN AND EVE. MODELS ARE INDICATING AT THIS
TIME THAT THE DRYLINE WILL STAY EAST OF THE KS/CO BORDER WITH THE
BEST CAPE AND SHEAR IN KS...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE AT THIS TIME. THU WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH MAX
TEMPS AROUND 90 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 F
FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS.

FRIDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS CA AND NV EARLY
FRI...PRODUCING DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND PUSHING
MOISTURE OUT OF THE CWA. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUN WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY...THINGS GET INTERESTING FOR THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE 4 CORNERS AROUND MIDDAY ON
SAT...SO INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT AND CONTINUING HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS COULD MEAN CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA SAT
AFTN/EARLY EVE. THE ONSET OF ANY SORT OF PCPN SEEMS TO START SAT
AFTN OVER THE CONTDVD...THEN AS THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL GET THE CHANCE TO SEE SOME CONVECTION.
SINCE THIS TROUGH IS SITUATED MORE TO THE NORTH...IT IS MORE OF A
GLANCING BLOW AND PINPOINTING PCPN AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS IS A BIT
TOUGH AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE CHANGED THE OUTLOOK
FOR SUN AND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WHAT ONCE LOOKED
LIKE BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FOR A COOLER BUT DRY SCENARIO HAS SHIFTED A
BIT...AND THE EC PICKED UP ON THIS FIRST. THE GFS IS NOW INDICATING
A SHIFT TOWARDS WHAT THE EC WAS SHOWING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
TO THE EAST LATE SAT...A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES DEVELOPS...WITH WHAT COULD BE A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW THEN ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKY MT REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE STATE IN A STATE OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE NW FLOW FINALLY
SETTLES IN FOR TUE. LOOK FOR A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DROP IN MAX TEMP OVER
THE WEEKEND AS COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PALMER DIVIDE...AND A FEW HIGH BASED TSRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND
JUST NORTH OF KCOS...SO WILL HOLD ON TO A VCTS MENTION UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB AND KALS...WON`T MENTION VCTS...BUT BOTH
TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW UNTIL 00Z-02Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AT KCOS AND KPUB BY EARLY WED
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE MOST AREAS WED
AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN