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000
FXUS65 KPUB 131712
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO MENTION WINDS EXCEEDING SVR CRITERIA FOR
MOST OF THE PLAINS.

LATEST OBS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK FOREST FIRE SHOW MONUMENT
HILL MIXING OUT QUICKLY...DWPT 27 WITH RH 12%. THIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLVL MSTR OVER N EL PASO COUNTY IS VERY SHALLOW...AND WILL
LIKELY MIX OUT WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP QUICKLY ONCE IT MIXES OUT.

THE LATEST BURN SCAR PERIMETER IS AVAILABLE FOR THE BLACK FOREST
FIRE...IT IS LOCATED ON THE NWS PUEBLO FIRE DECISION SUPPORT PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

WEAK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED WEST TOWARD I-25 THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S/LOW 50S AS WINDS TAKE
ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. FARTHER WEST...VERY POOR RH RECOVERY
MOST MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED
IN THE TEENS/20S. UNFORTUNATELY...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY
LATE MORNING AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS REDEVELOP...AND EXPECT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SUB 15 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO HIT RED FLAG THRESHOLDS MOST
AREAS...THOUGH ARK VALLEY FROM CANON CITY TO PUEBLO MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOW TO COMPLETELY MIX.  SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK WAVE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NM WILL SPARK A FEW MORE TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH 50-70F SURFACE T/TD SPREAD
AND SUBSEQUENT INVERTED V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY WIND/LIGHTNING
AND LITTLE/NO RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CHANGE
LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW 100F READINGS AGAIN OVER THE
LOWER ARK VALLEY. TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE
ON A MORE WLY COMPONENT AS UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY...THUS
EXPECT RATHER POOR RH RECOVERY AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR SHIFTS BACK
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WRN KS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BUT AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER A
MONSOONAL TYPE FLOW PATTERN...WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE DEGREE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY THINKING THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A DECENT BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODEST WHICH MAY HELP PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP QPF AMOUNTS LOW...WITH LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS EVEN LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINT FIELDS SLOSH BACK AND
FORTH BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND MAY LEAD TO INCREASED OR
DECREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS FOR THE
PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS CANADA BY MONDAY
WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SEND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DIFFER ON HOW LONG THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST. THE ECMWF IS VERY QUICK TO BRING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH ONLY ABOUT A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO EVOLVE THE UPPER PATTERN WITH AT
LEAST 24 HOURS OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS
ACROSS ALL THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST DRY FLOW TO
THE AREA AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

MAIN CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
AT KCOS AND KPUB LATER TODAY. PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW FOR KPUB
WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS AT KCOS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH