Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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437
FXUS65 KPUB 231726
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1026 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

...Record highs will be challenged today...

Upper high over the western U.S. will bring unseasonably warm
temperatures to the region with forecast high temperatures
challenging the record highs for this date, and in some cases coming
close to the Thanksgiving holiday records as well.  Will still be
dealing with light winds and some bouts of high level wave clouds at
times, which could help hold temperatures down a degree or two.
Going forecast is predicting new records will be set in PUB and COS
with ALS coming within a degree of its old record. Otherwise,
forecast is dry with some typical (of late) breezy northwest winds
expected across the mountains and upper Arkansas river valley in the
afternoon.

Record high temperatures for the date and for the Thanksgiving
holiday are:
Pueblo:  73 set in 1925 (for Thanksgiving holiday 76 in 1910)
Colorado springs:  69 in 1925 (for Thanksgiving holiday 70 in 2011)
Alamosa:  64 in 1954 (for Thanksgiving holiday 61 in 2006)

(Note: Thanksgiving does not always fall on Nov 23rd thus records
for the day and for the Holiday differ.)

Tonight, upper ridge flattens ahead of the next incoming system. Lee
trough will deepen overnight in response to increasing winds aloft,
and mountain top winds will become windy towards morning with gusts
to between 40 and 50 mph above timberline towards 12z. This in
combination with periodic high cloudiness should keep temperatures
tonight rather mild for the eastern slopes and I-25 corridor where
enhanced westerly drainage winds set in overnight.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

Friday-Friday night...Moderate to strong westerly flow aloft across
the region early Friday morning becomes more northwest Friday
afternoon and moderates into Friday night, as shortwave energy
translating across the Northern Rockies digs across the Upper
Midwest. There remains some differences in the models of timing and
location of this passing wave, which leads to a challenging forecast
for high temperatures across the eastern plains. At any rate, will
breezy to windy conditions over and near the higher terrain early
Friday morning, with quickly warming temperatures into the 60s and
lower 70s expected across the plains through the late morning before
the systems associated cold front brings in a cooler airmass within
developing upslope flow through the afternoon. Warmest temps look
to be across the southern I-25 corridor, with highs mainly in the
40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Will likely see elevated fire
danger across the eastern plains early Friday, though depending on
the timing of the front, may not see critical fire weather
conditions for a long enough time and will not go out with any fire
weather highlights at this time. At this time, current progged
location of this system remains too far north to bring much more
than a few showers to the central mountains through the day Friday,
with decreasing winds and cooler temperatures expected through early
Saturday morning.

Saturday-Sunday...Upper level ridging builds back across the Rockies
with dry conditions expected through the weekend. Temperatures on
Saturday will be cooler than Friday, though still expected to be
above seasonal levels, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s across
the plains and mainly 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Sunday
looks to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Saturday, most notable
across the lower elevations.

Monday-Wednesday...Increasing west to southwest flow aloft remains
in the offing into early next week, as models dig an upper trough
across the Great Basin and through the Rockies. The latest models
continue to differ on strength, timing and location, with the GFS
weaker, more progressive and further north than the latest EC
solution, though the EC is more progressive than its previous runs.
Certainly looks to be windy and warm out ahead of the system on
Monday, which will lead to increased fire danger once again across
the lower elevations. The GFS solution brings a quick shot of
precipitation to mainly the higher terrain of the ContDvd, where as
the EC solution brings a better chance of precipitation areawide.
Time will tell, as always. Cooler temperatures will be in the offing
behind the system later Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1025 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions expected all taf sites the next 24 hours with
occasional periods of high level cloudiness continuing. Winds
will remain light and diurnally driven with speeds under 15 kts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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