Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271742
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATED TO EXPIRE FROST ADVISORY WITH TEMPS WARNING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING A
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF
EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY DIGGING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST
COAST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTING LOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
WITH SOME LIGHT ECHOES ALSO DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO
AT THIS TIME.  SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING STRATUS ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHTS PASSING FRONT.

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH...AND WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S...COULD
STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF FROST...AND WILL LEAVE CURRENT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 8 AM.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS THE PAC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CONTDVD...AS
MOISTURE AND UVV SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM. COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TODAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LOW NEAR SRN NV EARLY THU MORNING WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS FRI MORNING...THEN TRACK INTO NERN CO OVERNIGHT
FRI INTO EARLY SAT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
TRACK...WITH PERHAPS ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD WOBBLE NOTED IN FCSTS
FROM THE PAST 36 HRS OR SO. AS SYSTEM APPROACHES...SHOULD SEE
PRECIP INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS THU...WITH
SNOW LEVELS STARING OUT FAIRLY HIGH (10K FEET) AS 700 MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM PLUS 2C OVER THE SW MTS TO AROUND MINUS 2C OVER TELLER
COUNTY/PIKES PEAK. SURFACE CAPES OF 2OO-400 J/KG PLUS STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW TSRA TO FORM THU
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY THU EVENING...VERY
STRONG UPWARD MOTION OVERSPREADS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH VIGOROUS MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DYNAMIC LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. 700 MB
TEMPS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COOL TO OC TO MINUS 2C THU
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD DRAG THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO 8-9K FEET BY THU
MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES.
FATHER EAST...STRONG WARM ADVECTION PUSHES 700 MB TEMPS SLOWLY
UPWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9K FEET...THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 7K FEET
(INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON PASS)...ESPECIALLY AS HEAVY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE ON
FRI AS LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NE ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS BY FRI EVENING AS HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE AN INCH OR MORE OF
PRECIP IN THE THU-FRI PERIOD...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMS OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE 10K FEET WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET...WITH PIKES PEAK
ESPECIALLY HARD HIT.

STILL APPEARS WE`LL HAVE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SAT EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW
ROUGHLY AGREE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN SUN...WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NRN AZ BY SUN EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS THEN HAD THE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NM...WHILE 00Z/27 RUNS NOW HAVE THE SYSTEM WALLOWING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN INTO TUE...WITH SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES ROTATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUE...AND WITH 700 MB TEMPS A FEW DEGC COOLER THAN
THU/FRI SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS COULD BE LOWER OVER MANY MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO WON`T HIT THIS SCENARIO TOO HARD YET...BUT
BEARS WATCHING. NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION ULTIMATELY
VERIFIES...BOTTOM LINE IS SUN-TUE PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL
AND LIKELY WET...BEFORE SLOW DRYING/WARMING TREND BEGINS WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITE. THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE AT KCOS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT KPUB AND KALS.
LATER THIS EVENING...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KCOS AS WINDS TAKE ON AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...AND I EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT KCOS INTO
TOMORROW AS DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PIKES PEAK(KCOS)
REGION. LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT KALS AND KPUB TOMORROW
LATE MORNING.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH



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