Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250531
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1131 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Updated to reflect current pcpn trends. Updated the fire wx grids
for the rest of tonight and Thursday using the latest NAM run.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

...More Evening Showers and Storms...

Upper monsoonal disturbance will drift east across the area into the
evening, resulting in more showers and thunderstorms.  So far today,
cooler temperatures have resulted in lower storm intensities.
However, storms are now starting to show a little more strength.
Primary concerns this evening will be similar to past days including
lightning, wind gusts to around 40 mph, heavy rain and possibly some
small hail.  Also, if a storm happens to track over a burn scar
area, particularly the Hayden Pass burn scar or the Waldo, there
could be flash flooding.

Not much change for tomorrow.  Another disturbance will move across
with another round of showers and storms.  Threats will be similar
to recent days.  Temperatures will be similar to today`s, continuing
cooler than average for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Not many adjustments required from previous meteorological
reasoning with active conditions continuing into the weekend
with improving conditions then developing next week.

Longer term meteorological issues continue to include
temperatures...pops/qpf/storm intensities and high elevation
snow potential at times.

Recent longer term PV analysis...computer simulations and
forecast model soundings continue to indicate that generally
moist zonal to southwesterly upper flow should be noted into the
weekend with upper ridging still expected to develop over the
forecast district by next week.

Similar to the previous several days, the combination of upper
disturbances interacting with available atmospheric moisture is
expected to allow continued periods of showers and thunderstorms
into the weekend(the strongest of which will be capable of
producing heavy rain/localized flash flooding...small hail and
gusty winds at times). WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.
Also...some higher terrain snow(focused over the higher mountain
peaks) also depicted in grids.

Then an return to warmer and drier conditions(although isolated to
low-grade scattered pops still needed at times...generally favoring
higher terrain locations) anticipated from Monday into next Wednesday
as upper ridging develops over the area.

Near to below seasonal late August temperatures are projected
from Friday into the weekend with near to above seasonal late August
temperatures then returning to the forecast district from Monday
into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Current MOS guidance is suggesting KCOS and KPUB could see a few
low clouds or some fog early Thu morning. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected at the terminal forecast sites. There will be a
chance for showers/tstms at KCOS in the afternoon hours and into
the night. KPUB should see a chance for pcpn mainly after 23z on
THU, while KALS could see pcpn in the late afternoon and into the
evening. At this time, it looks like both KCOS and KPUB could see
low stratus and/or fog after 06z Fri.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...28



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