Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 011740
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT NOTING EARLY MORNING ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SAGUACHE COUNTY AS WELL AS LOCALIZED
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

IN ADDITION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY AUGUST
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE ALSO NOTED OVER MOST LOCATIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT EARLY THIS MORNING.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN 1/2 TO WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CWFA FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCATIONS JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR TO THE KANSAS
BORDER ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE LOW GRADE TO NIL POPS FROM
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1 INCH AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS AND
LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED RECENT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY(WHEN COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS)...PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS AS MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

FOR SAT AND SUN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WL DECREASE AND BE UNDER
0.9 INCH.  ON SAT THE UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR UT AND WL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVR CO FOR SUN.  BOTH DAYS THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MSTR
OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRY THESE
DAYS. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE.

MON AN UPR TROF ROTATES NORTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR
RIDGE OVR NV AND UT...WITH THE UPR RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING INTO WRN TX
AND ERN NM. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STREAM OF MSTR TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACRS WRN CO. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS. THE SERN
PLAINS SHOULD STILL BE DRY. THE UPR TROF THEN MOVES ACRS MT AND WY
ON TUE...PUSHING THE UPR RIDGE CENTER FARTHER SOUTH. THE BEST MSTR
WL STILL BE OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...BUT SOME MAY PUSH EAST
OVR THE PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
PCPN.

TUE NIGHT THE TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND SENDS A FRONT IN
SERN CO.  THERE MAY BE SOME PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW ON WED THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...WITH CONTINUED SCT TO LIKELY POPS OVR THE HIGH COUNTRY.  ON
THU A BROAD UPR TROF IS FORECAST OVR THE GREAT BASIN...WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW CONTINUING OVR THE SERN CO PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD PCPN WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THU.  BOTH WED AND THU WE COULD SEE THE RETURN OF HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVR THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT MIDDAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP VCTS IN ALL
TAFS UNTIL EARLY EVENING...WITH STORMS LINGERING LONGEST AT KALS
WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEEPER. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR
UNDER SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
AFTER 06Z AS TSRA AND DEEPER MOISTURE SINK SOUTH INTO NM. FOR
SAT...LESS THREAT OF TSRA AT TAF SITES AS MOST ACTIVITY WILL STAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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