Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 040527
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

NORTHWEST FLOW...COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ARE CREATING 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR...ENOUGH TO GET
STORMS ROTATING...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  SPC
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPES RUNNING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE PLAINS...1000 OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO PLENTY OF
CAPE OUT THERE.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS THE PLAINS INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR
MORE. WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING
AND LIGHTNING ARE OTHER CONCERNS.

PRIMARY THREATS FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL
INCLUDE LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING...HAIL UP TO A HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH.

WE WILL DO IT AGAIN FOR TOMORROW.  MORE HEATING...MORE CAPE AND
SIMILAR SHEAR WILL LIKELY OUTPUT SIMILAR RESULTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS ON SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCE OVER AZ
ROUNDS THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME THAT UPPER TROF IN
CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. SFC LEE TROFFING WILL HELP
DECREASE SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ALOFT AS MONSOON PLUME OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD.  WITH FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH...SUSPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS DAY.  WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL DECREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEARS TO AROUND 25 KTS
OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.  DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT CAPES...SO STORM STRENGTH SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WEAKER THIS DAY.  BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
A THREAT WHICH COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR BURN SCARS...URBAN
AREAS...AND THOSE WITH SATURATED SOILS.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.  STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS
DAY...WITH NAM12 A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...HENCE WETTER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO ON MONDAY...WHILE GFS BRINGS IN THE COLD FRONT A
LITTLE QUICKER STRONGER AND THUS KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MORE
CAPPED FOR MONDAY.  WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AS EASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD NET DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 40
KTS OR SO.  HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW...BUT IF
NAM12 IS CORRECT...THEN PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS COULD GET IN ON THE ACTION.

UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST TUES AND WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
THE SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM THE MONSOON OVER CO THROUGH THESE DAYS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY MAINTAIN SOME 50 DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR/LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. DEEP LAYERS SHEARS WILL
BE DECREASING AGAIN...BUT PROBABLY STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LESS SHEAR AND LOWER DEW
POINTS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH EVEN
FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THESE DAYS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS IN BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SO
SHOULD SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND RETURN. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DIMINISHING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22Z-00Z...THEN SPORADIC
MVFR CONDITIONS AS DIURNAL CONVECTION FORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE


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