Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 182118
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
318 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic showery development, mainly across the higher
  terrain, and general warming trend expected this work week.

- Returning precipitation chances and cooler weather expected
  late this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Currently... A very quiet day over the region as very few clouds
were noted on sat pix imgy (the snow, however, over the higher
terrain, looks quite pretty in the cloud phase distinction imgy).
The clouds that were noted were over the San Juans and over the La
Veta pass region. Temperatures over the region at 2 pm were
generally in the 50s over the plains and 40s over the larger
valleys. Mtns were generally in the 10s and 20s.

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Not too much to write about in the weather department for the next
couple of days. Region is in a col point with large scale weather
systems and flow over the region throughout the column is quite
light. Tonight we will see clear skies and cool temperatures, and
expect mins by tomorrow to be in the U20 to L30 across the plains,
with temps around 20F in the SLV and tens and 20s in 30s. For
tomorrow, mostly clear skies will continue over the plains with some
more clouds expected over the mtns, and we may even see a shower or
two over the CONTDVD region. Temps will be warming tomorrow, with
readings running about 5 to 10F warmer than todays max temps. Winds
will continue to be light and diurnally driven.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

By Tuesday night, the upper low to the southwest will begin its
slow track east across the region. With a fair amount of dry
air in place and lacking real forcing/focus at this time, don`t
anticipate any increase in weather during that time with any
remaining showers from earlier in the day expected to quickly
diminish Tuesday evening. This low will then continue to shift
through northern New Mexico on Wednesday, with the overall setup
not really supporting any real big increases in precip
development. Additionally, the dry air in place will be a big
limiting factor on this day, keeping most locations on the dry
side. Will see another day of afternoon showery development
across the higher terrain though, with precip/snow expected to
remain light. Additionally, the far southeast plains could be
another area where a few showers and even a thunderstorm or two
could occur. Surface dewpoints try and inch up on Wednesday, but
once again, the deeper moisture will be lacking on this day.
So, at this time, have opted to maintain the slight to low
chance pop wording across the far southeast plains Wednesday
afternoon into early evening.

The near normal to slightly above normal temps on Wednesday
will see additional rises on Thursday, as the upper low finally
shifts to the east of the area and we see a return to deeper
westerly flow. Expect this general west to northwest flow for
the remainder of the week into the weekend. Some slight cooling
is likely during this time along with additional precip chances,
mainly for the higher terrain though. Next period of interest
to keep an eye on will be late this weekend into early next
week, when the pattern is expected to become more amplified
across the region. Despite lower confidence with any exact
details given the time range, precip chances do look to increase
across much of the area during this time, along with the return
of cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light and
diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...HODANISH


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