Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211806
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1206 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/HI MTNS SNOWS THIS EVENING BUT IT SHOULD BE
A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT...

CURRENTLY....

LOTS OF CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...WHILE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN CLOUDS WERE INCREASING IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS AT 3 AM WERE QUITE COOL WITH 30S
AND 40S PLAINS AND VALLEYS...AND 20S AND 30S MTNS.

THIS MORNING...

FOG...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MID
MORNING...WITH FOG AND DRZL DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING. IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST. OVER THE HIGHER TRRN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO 18Z OVER THE
FCST AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON...

PRECIP WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE MTNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. PRECIP SHOULD REACH
THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
TO FALL OVER THE C MTN AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER
COORD WITH GJT AND BOU...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX HILITE FOR 4-8"
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE C MTNS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD REACH IN THE 55-60F RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SIMILAR TO YDAY...SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST LOCATION
WITH HIGHS IN THE M60S.

TONIGHT...

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ANY PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN FOR THE PLAINS. IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE 0.25-0.50" OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. EL PASO COUNTY MAY ALSO
SEE SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF IT SHOULD BE NORTH
IN NWS BOU`S CWA. QUITE A BIT OF THE PLAINS MAY NOT SEE MUCH
ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT...MOSTLY BELOW 0.10". IT IS NOT OUT THE
QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE PLAINS MAY NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD FALL OVER THE C
MTN/VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING...DECREASING LATER TONIGHT.

DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS WITH
THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER COLORADO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH IT COMING TO AN END BY MID DAY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY AIR
FILLING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. MODELS ARE
GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE...HOWEVER LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BECOME. FOR
NOW THINK THE MAIN THREATS OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WILL BE DIME
SIZE HAIL AND LIGHTNING. SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS...WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10 KFT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE DRYLINE TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
EJECTING ACROSS COLORADO. MODELS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING A DRYLINE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE STRONGER INSTABILITY
OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT. STRONG SHEAR AND THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL REMAIN HOW FAR EAST OR WEST
THE DRYLINE SETS UP. THERE COULD ALSO BE A LIMITED STRONG TO
SEVERE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS AND MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT TROUGHING AND DISTURBANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES ARE STILL UNCLEAR...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY MAY
BE THE WETTEST DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN QUESTION.

ONE THING TO REMEMBER...THE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVERS/STREAMS
ARE RUNNING HIGH. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AND RIVER FLOODING. IF SHOWERS
CAN BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH ANY TIME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
FLOOD RISK WILL BE HIGH...TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT COS AND PUB WITH MOIST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A WEATHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS. WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE PARTING SYSTEM
SHOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...THOUGH WILL KEEP VCTSSH IN TAF FAR NOW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT
FRIDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW



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