Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281312
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
712 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING WHICH
WAS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THE
HIGHLIGHT WAS A BUST SINCE ONLY A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS DROPPED
DOWN TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW...AND A HARD FREEZE WAS NOT
REALIZED. THIS WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...THEN REISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR A SMALLER PORTION OF THE PLAINS AGAIN FOR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...A COOLER DAY ON TAP...

CURRENTLY...W-NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE STATE...WHILE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WAS HINDERING THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESS. MANY AREAS ACROSS THE E PLAINS HAVE
DIPPED INTO THE 30S AS OF 330 AM...BUT ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
DIPPING BELOW FREEZING BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DESERT SW AND 4 CORNERS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...PROMISING DRY
CONDITIONS. THE FREEZE WARNING MAY BE A BUST BY ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME. DUE TO A COOL START...MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES ARE
FORECAST...SO PORTIONS OF THE E PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE UNDER THE
GUN FOR A FREEZE. THE PROBABLE AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...AND FROM THE I25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD. DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY NEW HIGHLIGHT ISSUANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT/WED MORN UNTIL
THE ONGOING FREEZE WARNING EXPIRES. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER CO BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR THURSDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK IN ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH DIMINISH SOME FOR THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN CO ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROF ENTERING THE WEST COAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE TROF. NORMALLY WITH CURED FINE FUELS THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS
WOULD START TO RAISE CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO STARTS TO ADVECT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND IN SPITE OF SOME
WARMING ON FRIDAY...RHS DO NOT GET LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY RED
FLAG CONCERNS. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT BOTH GFS AND EC
SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW.

UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN US LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
UT/NW CO ON SATURDAY. MAIN AFFECT THIS WILL HAVE ON SOUTHERN CO IS
TO INCREASE THE WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THESE LOOK MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE CONTDVD REGION. THERE IS ALSO A DRY LINE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW APPEARS THAT
MOISTURE RETURN DOESN`T OCCUR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO YIELD MORE THAN A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT FOR NOW HUMIDITY VALUES STILL DO NOT
APPEAR LOW ENOUGH EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY WINDY.

TRAILING ENERGY DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...CARVING
OUT THE TROF AGAIN ACROSS UT/CO FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH GFS
QUICKER TO CARVE OUT A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE EC KEEPS WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO/NRN NM. CONSEQUENTLY...GFS IS FASTER TO BRING A FRONT
INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. EC IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND HOLDS OFF ON
THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUES AS THE UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND
LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ085-086-
089-093-095>098.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE



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