Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 210545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS CO TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE OVR
PIKES PEAK...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WL BE DRY.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE AS WELL.

ON FRI THE SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AN UPR
LOW CIGS INTO SWRN AZ.  THIS WL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA WITH
GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE
AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

...SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
...THANKSGIVING FORECAST STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NRN MEXICO...AND
WILL BE MUCH TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT OUR AREA IN A SIGNIFICANT WAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. MAIN
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP US RELATIVELY MILD FRI
NITE...AND SET US UP FOR A PRETTY NICE SATURDAY AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP BEHIND THE PARTING TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM. COULD SEE TEMPS GET TO 60 DEGREES OR HIGHER OVER THE PLAINS
FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE...WILL START TO SEE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE CONTDVD. THIS WILL TAKE SHAPE AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING IN NW FLOW BEHIND A DEEPER TROUGH THAT WILL BUILD
EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A CONTINUATION OF THE STRONGLY
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING A LOT OF THUS FAR THIS
FALL. FIRST WAVE WILL HIT SAT NIGHT...THEN A SECOND LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP. WILL PROBABLY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
SNOW OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE WITH THIS EVENT...BUT THE BULK OF THE
SNOW WILL FALL AFTER SATURDAY...AND SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES. SO...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT
ANTICIPATE THAT WINTER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO FOR THE DIVIDE.

OVER THE PLAINS...IT STAYS MAINLY DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THIS COULD BRING
A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE PLAINS. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED
LOW POPS FOR THE ERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MOST LIKELY SPOTS
FOR ANY ACCUMS LOOK TO BE OVER THE PALMER DVD-PIKES PEAK
REGION...AND ALSO ALONG THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO. BUT
ANY ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
BACK TO THE 40S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 30S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AT LEAST BRIEFLY OVER THE CONTDVD ON TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH OUT EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AND RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY BECOME
APPARENT. THE GFS BUILDS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH
WOULD GIVE US SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF BRING A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WX AND THE SHOT OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. ECMF GENERALLY HAS THE BETTER H5 TRACK RECORD SO AM
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER SOLUTION. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO MATCH UP WITH THE EC SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST EC AND GEM HAVE BOTH BACKED OFF A BIT ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
ENDS UP. IT IS JUST A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODEL WILL
RULE OUT...BUT FOR NOW BORDERLINE POPS...ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR THE PLAINS. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THURSDAY
IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH


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