Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 021719
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1119 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED TO DELAY TIMING OF HIGHER POPS BY A FEW HOURS. STILL NOT
SEEING THE PRECIP OVER SW CO MOVE INTO OUR AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE
FAIRLY STEADY INCREASE IN PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AND
OTHER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE WRN CWA THIS
EVENING. WILL CONSIDER EXPANDING THE FLOOD WATCH BASED ON TRENDS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY...QUIET WEATHER HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY
THIS MORNING.  TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD WITH 60S OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE UNDER A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND MODELS DEVELOP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUANS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  ALL WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...NORTH INTO
THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OF
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN SCAR.  A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BURN SCAR AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES ALONG
WITH LIGHTNING.

THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOST HIGH-RES
MODELS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.  THAT BEING SAID...MOST HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS...NAMELY THE ARW AND THE
NSSL WRF...WHICH DO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE LOW POPS IN THIS AREA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.  THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.  THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO WILL REMAIN FELT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...MONSOON EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIER FOR A COUPLE DAYS...THEN
MONSOON RETURNING BY WEEKS END...

ON MONDAY...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE...CARRYING MONSOON MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REGION. WATER CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HIGH WITH
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AIDED BY LIFT FROM THE DISTURBANCE.
SO...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRIMARY THREATS
OF LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.

TUESDAY IS NOT CURRENTLY LOOKING AS MOIST AS IT ONCE DID.  MODELS
ARE INDICATING...NOW...THAT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL ALREADY
BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY...BUT MUCH LESS SO
THAN ON MONDAY. STILL THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THIS DAY...BUT STARTING TO TREND TOWARD MORE OF A GUSTY WIND
THREAT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE MOSTLY DRY AND WARM DAYS...AS DRY
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION...AND THE MONSOON GETS
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH.  MOSTLY ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THESE DAYS WITH PRIMARILY A LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WIND THREAT. A LITTLE TRICKY THURSDAY EVENING...THOUGH...AS SOME
MODEL RUNS ARE CLIPPING THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH AN MCS MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRANSITION BACK INTO
THE MONSOON.  MODELS INDICATE AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AND TRACK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL PULL ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE NORTH INTO
COLORADO. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO SHOW UP ON FRIDAY...BUT REALLY
BLANKETS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RETURN OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
RETURN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH TS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCT TO NMRS TS OVER THE CONTDVD WILL
BUILD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. KALS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD SEE MVFR
OR BRIEF IFR DEVELOP AFTER 21-22Z AND PERSISTING AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF PRECIP COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED LOW CIGS MON MORNING OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

AT KCOS AND KPUB...TIMING OF STORMS WILL BE LATER AND LESS
LIKELY...AS THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP REMAINS OVER THE MTS.
HOWEVER...ISOLD STORMS COULD AFFECT THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH
EARLY EVE. SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO AN ERLY DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ067-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE


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