Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 120508
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1108 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak wave will bring light snow over the Sawatch Mountains
   of Lake and Chaffee County during the overnight tonight.

 - Wintry starts to make return starting Wednesday, with
   precipitation increasing throughout the day.

 - Potential high impact storm system to impact the area
   Thursday through Saturday, with widespread precipitation for
   the region.

 - Downtick in active weather for the end of the weekend, with
   precipitation lessening in coverage.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Updated forecast to expire Red Flag Warning over parts of the
region. /Hodanish

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Let`s be honest, you`re all not here for the short term forecast...
but here we are. When sunset occurs the RH values will increase and
the gap flow winds will decrease which will cease any fire weather
conditions. The surface low will continue to move to the east
keeping some 10 to 15 mph winds over the plains through the
overnight, which will aid in keeping low temperatures overnight
fairly warm. So, expect low near 40s over the far eastern plains, in
the low 30s closer to the mountains, the 20s to 30s over the upper
and middle Arkansas River Valley, and the teens to 20s over the San
Luis Valley.

During the overnight a weak wave will propagate over Colorado
bringing some lighter snow amounts over the Sawatch Mountains in Lake
and Chaffee Counties, but those snow chances diminish shortly after
sunrise.

Tomorrow will be warm and dry, but the wind speeds will not be
strong enough for meteorological critical fire weather conditions.
High temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s over the plains and
the 50s over the mountain valleys and Teller County. Towards the end
of the short term forecast period PoPs start to increase over the
Continental Divide.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Tuesday Night - Wednesday: Midweek will bring the first day of
active and busy weather to south central and southeastern Colorado.
A broad trough will dig southward and pass over the region
throughout the day. As it does so, forcing will increase in
response, especially along the mountains, and moisture will start to
increase with the system. With the rise in forcing and moisture,
precipitation will expand in coverage from west to east throughout
the day, especially along the mountains. Precipitation over the
mountains and valleys will remain all snow given the colder
temperatures in the higher elevations, with any precipitation at
lower elevations (I-25 corridor and eastward) being mostly rain,
though a period of rain/snow mix is possible early and late in day,
when temperatures across these areas is cooler. Speaking of
temperatures, a warm day is expected for much of the area, though
cold front passage during the day will limit overall heating
potential. With all the said, much of the region will still warm to
around seasonal values.

Thursday - Saturday: For the later part of the week and start of the
weekend, active weather continues for much of south central and
southeastern Colorado. As the aforementioned broad trough continues
to push eastward, another wave on the western periphery of it will
dig southward and develop into a cut-off low, becoming the primary
synoptic influence over the region for a few days. Overall, forcing
will remain heightened and given that, precipitation chances will
remain high. This storm system will bring rain and snow to the
region, with snow expected for the mountains and valleys, and rain,
rain/snow mix, and snow expected for the lower elevations. While
this system has potential to bring impactful snowfall to the area,
and model guidance supports that, there are a few factors that will
limit overall snow accumulation, particularly for the lower
elevations. Several days of above average temperatures preceding the
event, the "warmer" nature of the system (and the colder core
remaining to the southwest), and some of the heavier precipitation
falling during the daytime will impact ultimate snow accumulations.
With that all in mind, snow depth from model guidance is a much more
realistic indicator for snow accumulation for this storm, and given
that, the most impactful snow is expected to remain along and
closely around the mountains, and the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa
areas at this time. Regardless though, any snow that falls from this
system will be heavy and wet, especially for the lower elevations
areas. Looking at temperatures, a cool and mild few days are in
store for south central and southeastern Colorado. With the
unsettled pattern over the region, much of the region will cool to
below average values for mid March, though no major cold is
anticipated given the "warmer" nature of the pattern.

Sunday: For the end of the weekend, a downtick in active weather is
expected. Flow will become more northerly as a the aforementioned
cut-off low starts to shear itself out, and a short wave just to the
east of the area zooms southward. Given this pattern setup, most
major forcing will decrease across region. With that said though,
the wave, and an associated cold front with it, may provide enough
forcing/support to help blossom additional showers during the day
Sunday. Temperatures during the end of the week will remain
relatively cool and below seasonal values for mid March, given the
overall unsettled pattern in place still.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. winds will be relatively light
and mostly diurnally driven. Winds may bet a bit modestly gusty
at KALS during tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday
for COZ058-060-061.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday
for COZ059-062>064-066-068.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon for COZ064>068.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday
afternoon for COZ072>075-079-080.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through late
Thursday night for COZ076-081-082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH


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