Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 262314
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
414 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 414 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

...Snow for the Divide...Fire Danger for the Plains...

Next Pacific weather system is dropping south along the northwest
coast today and will be making a turn eastward toward Colorado later
tonight and Monday.  This system will bring widespread snow and wind
back to the Continental Divide by Monday afternoon, with scattered
snow showers until then.  It will also bring another bout of gusty
winds and high fire danger back to the plains Monday afternoon.
While relative humidities may not be as low as with some recent
events, the combination of gusty winds and dry fuels will compensate
making the fire danger enough to warrant a Fire Weather Watch for
the plains from noon to 6 pm Monday.  One will be issued here
shortly. Meanwhile, the Winter Storm Watch that was in effect for
the Continental Divide will be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning
from noon Monday until midnight Tuesday night.  Looks like generally
10-20 inches of wind-driven snow along the Divide during this
period. Travel will turn treacherous through the mountain passes
once again.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 414 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

Not many meteorological adjustments required from previous
meteorological reasoning with main concerns during the longer
term being elevated pop potential/QPF/snow amounts from Monday
night into Tuesday night, temperatures, gusty winds at times as
well as elevated fire weather concerns at times(especially early
Monday evening and then again by next weekend).

Recent longer range computer simulations, PV analysis and forecast
model soundings indicate that forecast district will be impacted
by storm system into Tuesday night, therefore will continue
existing fire weather highlights into early Monday evening and
Winter weather highlights into Tuesday evening, where portions of
the Continental Divide may experience an additional 12 or more
inches of snow from sunset Monday into Tuesday evening in
combination with gusty winds.

In addition, the highest potential of precipitation over eastern
sections of the forecast district during the longer term is still
expected from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday as moist low-level
flow interacts with upper level energy.

Then a return to drier conditions in combination with moderating
temperatures are anticipated from later this week into this
weekend as an upper ridging to zonal upper pattern develops over
and near southern Colorado during this time-frame.

It still appears that the highest potential for elevated fire
weather concerns during the longer term should be noted into early
Monday evening and then again by next weekend, primarily over
eastern locations. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.

The highest potential for gusty winds over the forecast
district during the longer term should be experienced from
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning and then again from
later Tuesday into Wednesday morning and once again by next
weekend.

Finally near to below seasonal late February/early March temperatures
are anticipated over the majority of the forecast district from
Monday night into Thursday with near to above seasonal
temperatures returning to many sections of southern Colorado from
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 414 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

Isolated snow showers will be possible along the Continental
Divide through this evening, resulting in spotty MVFR, IFR or LIFR
conditions. Snowfall will start to ramp up along the Divide after
midnight and become widespread by Monday afternoon, resulting in
widespread IFR to LIFR flight conditions across the Divide.
Scattered snows showers could reach the eastern mountain ranges late
tonight and Monday resulting in areas of MVFR, IFR or LIFR
conditions but not nearly as widespread as along the Divide.

For the KCOS, KPUB and KALS TAF sites, VFR is expected next 24
hours. Snow showers are expected to remain confined to the higher
terrain.  Main concern will be gusty westerly surface winds
developing at all 3 sites late tomorrow morning through the
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for COZ226>237.

Winter Storm Warning from noon Monday to midnight MST Tuesday
night for COZ058-060-061-066-068.

&&

$$



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