Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 301259
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
659 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Updated for cancellation of winter storm warning for Crowley,
Otero and western Las Animas counties. Also updated morning winds
across the southeast plains. Adjusted morning POPs across the
southeast plains based on current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 509 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Primary near-short range meteorological concerns include amount of
impact(mainly snow and winds/visibilities...etc.) departing system
has on primarily the southeastern Colorado plains into today as well
as temperatures.

Another active meteorological morning for southeastern Colorado as
recent real-time data...PV analysis...computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that vigorous closed upper low
centered over northwestern Oklahoma at 12Z this morning moves into
east-central Kansas by 00Z Monday before shifting into Iowa by 12Z
Monday.

This system will continue to produce a combination of snow(heavy at
times) and healthy north to northwesterly surface winds in the 30
mph 40 mph range(with higher wind gusts at times), especially over
the far southeastern plains into this morning, therefore have
maintained existing Winter Storm Warnings for the majority of this
sector until 19Z today.

In addition, a Freeze Warning remains in effect for the I-25
corridor and adjacent areas until 9 AM this morning due to current
and/or expected freezing temperatures over many of these locations.
Also, another freeze warning may be needed for early Monday morning,
although recent data suggests temperatures may be slightly too warm
over many locations to issue at this time.  WFO Pueblo will monitor
closely.

Elsewhere across the forecast district, anticipate that drier
conditions in combination with moderating temperatures(with amount
of warming depending on depth of snow pack) will be experienced
during the next 24 hours(although temperatures will run well below
late April/early May climatological averages).

Finally...the gusty north to northwest surface winds of
today(primarily over eastern sections) will taper off tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 509 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

A weak weather disturbance will be moving through the area on Mon,
with its main effect being some showers over some of the mountains
areas.  The central mtns will likely see the best chances for
showers but it is not expected to amount to much.  High temps on Mon
will be several degrees below average acrs the southeast plains, and
should be close to normal in the high valley locations.

The first half of Tue is expected to be mainly dry, but in the
afternoon a new weather system will move over the area.  The GFS
spreads pcpn acrs all the mtn areas and along the I-25 corridor in
the afternoon and then in the evening hours, increases pcpn ovr the
southeast mtns and all of the plains.  The NAM is a little slower
and mainly shows some pcpn in the late afternoon hours over the
central mtns and acrs the Pikes Peak area and Palmer Divide, and
then during the evening and overnight hours it spreads increased
pcpn chances over the southeast mtns and plains. Temps will remain
below average acrs the southeast plains on Tue and around average in
the high valleys.  The GFS is a little colder with this system than
the ECMWF and thus the snow level is a little uncertain at this
time, but looks like it will probably be above 6000 or 7000 feet. It
is expected to remain unsettled thru Wed with showers continuing
over the eastern mtns and maybe some of the plains.  Temps on Wed
will generally be colder than on Tue and will be below average acrs
all of southern CO.

An upper level ridge begins building over the area Wed night and Thu
and remains the dominant feature for Fri and into early Sat, with
dry weather and warmer temps.  Highs Thu are expected to mainly be
around average and then should warm to above average for Fri.

On Sat an upper level trof moves over the west coast and ahead of
this system, increasing southwest flow is expected to bring an
increase in mstr to the area, with the possibility of showers ovr
the mtns. Temps on Sat will likely be several degrees above
average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 509 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Large winter storm system continues on its slow northeast
progression this morning. However, this storm system continues to
impact a large portion of primarily the far southeastern Colorado
plains with snow, blowing snow, low ceiling and low visibilities.
The impacts of this storm will decrease by later today into
tonight as the storm system moves into Iowa by Monday morning.

Expect generally VFR conditions at the KCOS, KPUB and KALS TAF sites
during the next 24 hours with the primary meteorological concern
being gusty northwesterly to northerly winds in excess of 40 mph at
times today(at KCOS and KPUB) with winds then decreasing from late
this afternoon into tonight.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ083>088.

Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ094.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM MDT this afternoon for
COZ095>099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



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