Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 222047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL HAVE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
CO PLAINS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28


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