Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 132233
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
333 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

A weather disturbance will move southeastward from WY into CO this
evening and then continue moving southward through CO through midday
Thu.  This system will bring more clouds and chances for pcpn
tonight over the mountains, high valleys and I-25 corridor.  Thu
morning there should also be chances for pcpn acrs the southeast
plains.  A second disturbance to the north and east of the area,
will bring another northerly surge thru the area Thu afternoon.
This is expected to result in lingering chances for light pcpn,
mostly over the eastern mtns, and portions of the southeast plains
especially south of highway 50.

Tonight, the central CO mtns will see chances for snow first and
then the snow will spread south and east over all the mtns and high
valleys and portions of the I-25 corridor by Thu morning.  The
higher eastern mtn areas will probably end up seeing up to 6 or 7
inches of snow accumulation by Thu evening, with maybe 4-5 inches
over the central mtns, and the southwest mtns should see less. In
general, the lower elevations along the I-25 corridor and the high
valleys should see an inch or two of snow, but the upper Arkansas
River valley could see a little more. Temps will be cooler on Wed,
with highs in the 30s over northern El Paso county and western Las
Animas county, and in the lower to mid 40s over the rest of the
southeast plains.  The high valleys will mostly see highs in the
30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

Somewhat active meteorological conditions anticipated at times
during the longer term with primary focus on amount of impact
that system provides the forecast district from Saturday night
into Sunday.

Main meteorological concerns during the longer term include
temperatures, gusty winds at times and the potential for
elevated pops from Saturday night into Sunday.

Recent computer simulations, PV/Precipitable Water analysis and
forecast model soundings indicate that showers will be ending
by sunset Thursday as system pushes south of the forecast
district. Then, warmer and drier conditions are expected Friday
and Saturday as dry zonal to southwesterly upper flow returns to
southern Colorado.

Next round of cooler temperatures and increased precipitation
threat should be realized from Saturday night into Sunday as next
upper system impacts the region. At this time, differing amount of
impact depicted by recent ECMWF and GFS solutions with the ECMWF
solution more aggressive with precipitation than the GFS solution
and have trended increased pops during this time-frame.

A return to drier and warmer conditions are then projected from
Monday into next Wednesday as basically dry northwesterly to zonal
upper flow redevelops over the CWA.

At this time, the highest potential for stronger winds over the
forecast district during the longer term should be experienced
from Thursday night into Friday morning(favoring far eastern
portions).

Finally, warmest conditions should be realized Friday and Saturday
and then again by next Wednesday with coolest temperatures
anticipated from Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 333 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

Cloud bases will be lowering tonight. Late tonight KCOS will
probably see snow at or in the vicinity, and conditions should be
MVFR or IFR, through about midday.  In the afternoon conditions are
expected to improve at KCOS.    KPUB will probably see snow in the
vicinity late tonight or early Thu morning, with ceilings becoming
MVFR or IFR after about 09Z.  Chances for snow at KPUB will likely
end in the early afternoon and conditions should improve to VFR by
late afternoon.  KALS will probably see conditions become MVFR or
IFR after 11Z, when there will be chances for snow in the area.
Chances for snow at KALS will probably end in the early afternoon
hours on Thu with conditions becoming VFR by late afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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