Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 201723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN CENTERED OVR CO TODAY.  THIS MORNING A FRONT
WL BE MOVING THROUGH SERN CO...BRINGING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
THAT TURN EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS DRY ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA THRU MIDDAY...BUT IN THE AFTERNOON SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN AREAS.  THE NAM AND GFS
KEEP THE PCPN TIED TO THE HYR TERRAIN THRU 00Z. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THE NAM HAS PCPN SPREADING OUT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...
MAINLY FROM PUEBLO COUNTY AND NORTHWARD...WITH THE REST OF THE SERN
PLAINS REMAINING DRY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY OVR THE SERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
THEY WL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.  IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WHICH IS ABOVE AVERAGE BY
NEARLY 10 DEGREES.

TONIGHT THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA...BUT AN UPR TROF MOVES
INTO WRN NV...WHICH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO WRN CO. IN THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS THE NAM SHOWS PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EXCEPTION IN THE NAM IS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS...
HOWEVER THE ARW FOCUSES PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS OVR THOSE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. WL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AND WL GO WITH ISOLD TO SCT POPS ACRS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE IS SHUNTED SOUTH AND
EAST BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO BECOMES ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
FLOW ALOFT. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING OROGRAPHICS AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CONTDVD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE EXPECTED TO KEEP STRATUS AND A FEW
POSSIBLE SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR...IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEVELOPING WAA.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY AS UPPER LOW WEAKENS WITH A BROAD TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WAA. COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH INCREASING BULK
SHEARS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND EXPECTED AS UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS WEST COAST BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT GENERALLY ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST KALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. KCOS SHOULD HAVE VCTS AFTER 00Z...THEN SHOWERS INCREASING
AFTER 02Z WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 10Z. KPUB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
VCTS AFTER 06Z...THEN PCPN MOVES IN AND MVFR CIGS BY 09Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE



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