Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 050535
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1035 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

Westerly winds aloft will be found over the area tonight through
Monday.  The winds over some of the mtns tonight and Monday are
expected to be fairly strong, with gusts of 50 to around 60 kts. The
lower slopes and some of the nearby lower elevations will also see
some breezy conditions.  The low temps forecast will be a bit
challenging in areas near the mtns where the winds are a little
breezy late tonight and Monday morning, as this will keep things
mixed and not as cold. It looks like many areas will see slightly
warmer than average lows tonight, except that portions of the San
Luis Valley will probably be a little below average.

The NAM and the GFS keep the forecast area dry thru 00Z Tue, while
the WRF and ECMWF bring some pcpn into the central CO mtns in the
afternoon.  Will keep some isold to scattered pops in the Sawatch
and Mosquito ranges Mon afternoon, but with little accumulation.
Highs on Monday wl be above average by at least 10 degrees across
the southeast plains, except in the San Luis Valley where readings
should be around average.  The winds should be breezy from the west
to northwest over the plains thru about late afternoon Mon, and then
they turn more northerly in the afternoon and evening as sfc high
pressure builds in from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

...Cold Air Headed to Southeast Colorado Tuesday through Thursday...

A broad upper level trof will remain over the northern plains Monday
night. A secondary shortwave moves into the Pacific NW coast.
Westerly mid level winds will continue across Colorado with a chance
of snow in the Central Mountains. Brisk winds are also possible in
the mountains. On the southeast plains, a cold front will move
through the area early in the evening. There will be little chance
of precipitation on the southeast plains behind this front with only
shallow cold air and limited moisture in place.

Tuesday through Thursday...the secondary shortwave digs south into
the Great Basin Tuesday with the jet setting up over southern
Colorado. Snow will increase over the Central Mountains Tuesday and
Tuesday night. On the plains, expect low level upslope flow to
increase Tuesday night with snow increasing over the central and
northeast portions of the state. Models have been fairly consistent
keeping large area of snow just to the north of our CWA. At this
point, it looks like the best chances for snow in southeast Colorado
will be across Teller, Northern El Paso, and Kiowa Counties. As the
trof shifts to the east Wednesday, may get some wraparound snow
along the Kansas border. Snow amounts from 6 to 10 inches are
possible in the high country with generally 1/2 to 2 inch amounts at
the lower elevations. The system moves out quickly on Wednesday with
snow ending from west to east across the area. Clearing skies will
lead to a very cold night Wednesday night with low temperatures from
-10 to the single digits across the area early Thursday morning. The
cold temperatures continue Thursday with highs only in the teens and
20s.

Previous model runs advertised a ridge moving into Colorado Friday,
while current runs favor northwest flow with a series of shortwaves
moving through the flow. Most of the energy stays north of our area
in this pattern. Friday still looks warmer and mainly dry with this
scenario. The pattern looks a little more active Saturday and Sunday
for the Continental Divide and western areas, but still mild on the
plains. Stark

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1029 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

A strong cold front will bring a major weather change to the
region tomorrow evening. In advance of this front, a lee trough
will develop over the area tomorrow morning and this will cause
gusty westerly winds to develop over KCOS and KPUB by late
morning or early afternoon. The strong cold front will move across
KCOS and then KPUB tomorrow early evening. Besides the gusty
winds...VFR conditions will occur at all 3 taf sited during the
next 24h.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...HODANISH



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