Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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134
FXUS65 KPUB 050534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...

MAIN WX FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH CO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN UT AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SN SHOWERS IN ERN UT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW AMTS OUT
WEST HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS IN
LIQUID...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOME LEE SIDE COLUMN STRETCHING OCCURS. PV
ANALYSIS AND MODEL FORECASTS SHOW BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
OCCURRING IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST...SN PROBABILITIES LOOK
CONSIDERABLY LESS. THE LATEST HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO THIS POTENTIAL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER WRN PUEBLO COUNTY AROUND 09Z. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVE...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE REGARDLESS...STILL LOOKING AT
AROUND 1-3 INCHES FOR THE ERN MTS AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR
THE PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATING MORE LIKE 2-3 INCHES...BUT
FOR NOW WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT... SO DESPITE CONTINUED COLD
AIR ALOFT...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THEY WERE FOR LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...WILL SEE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY MID DAY. CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT
AND NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF AVERAGE. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW BELOW GUIDANCE AS MOS
VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO WARM FOR KPUB AND ESPECIALLY KCOS...WHERE
RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN THE HIGHS. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY 30S TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND 20S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IT
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK DESPITE THE COOLER THAN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE.  ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE STATE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WL STILL
BE DRY.  TEMPS ALOFT WL WARM ON SAT AND MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE WARMER
HIGH TEMPS.  MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS THAT ARE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH AREAS WITH LINGER SNOW COVER
MAY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE.  THE HIGH VALLEYS WL ALSO LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES...SENDING A FRONT INTO SERN CO.  AT THIS TIME...THE
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS.  IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ON SUN
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER.

AS THE UPR TROF OVR THE PLAINS STATES MOVES EASTWARD...AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES BY
MONDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THRU THE
COMING WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE
THAT SNOW...SOME ACCUMULATING...IS ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY...WITH LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO THREE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PRIMARILY AT KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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