Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 152228
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
328 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

...A cold night tonight...

Light snow over parts of the plains was continuing to decrease in
coverage this afternoon. Low clouds were still banked up against
the mountains and extended up to about ~9000 feet. OVer the
mountains it was, for the most part, clear. Not surprisingly, the
San Luis Valley (SLV) had the warmest temps this afternoon, with
readings in the mid 40s. Over the plains it was cold with readings
mainly in the 20s.

Tonight....

Precip should continue to decrease and expect it to end late this
afternoon or early evening. Main forecast issue tonight is low
temps. Guidance is quite cold with readings in the single digits,
with a few readings below zero over the far eastern plains generally
north of Lamar. However, guidance wants to keep clouds around and
this may tend to keep temps warmer than what I have in the NDFD. To
be consistent with surrounding wx offices, will keep temps on the
colder side. The overall best chance of clouds lingering will be
along the I-25 corridor, and have kept this region in clouds most of
the night. Although not much wind is anticipated tonight, wind chill
values will likely drop to below zero in many places across the
plains. Bundle up if you will be out tonight.

Tomorrow...

Generally a mostly clear and cool day.  Some clouds may still be
lingering along the I-25 corridor early but should dissipate rather
quickly. Max temps will likely not get above freezing across most of
the plains tomorrow, with the warmest temps at lower elevations
occurring west of I-25. The upper ark rvr valley and the SLV will
once again be the warmest locations as reading will reach into the
upper 30s to around 40F.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

...Gradual warming through the week, then another system over the
weekend...

Tuesday night through Friday...As high pressure at the surface moves
east away from Colorado, westerly flow aloft and an upper ridge over
the desert sw starts to move into the region. This will allow for
gradual warming and dry conditions both day and night through
Friday. An approaching trough of low pressure Fri will increase
winds and shift the flow aloft to a more southwest direction across
the Four Corners, boosting temps even more so on Fri. Look for high
temps in the 40s to around 50F for most areas on Wed, then 40s to
lower 50s for the high valleys and 50s to around 60F for the plains
on Thu. For Fri expect increasing west winds through the afternoon,
as well as highs in the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to near
70F for the plains.

Friday night through Sunday...The next incoming low pressure system
nears the region Fri night, with snow developing along the
Continental Divide Fri eve. Pcpn is forecast to remain over the mts
and high valleys through the first half of Sat, then as the sfc cold
front drops south across the e plains Sat aftn showers will then
spread across the plains. At the same time, the upper trough axis is
expected to begin moving across the state, finally clearing the
eastern border of Colorado late Sun afternoon. Pcpn will then
quickly taper off Sun eve. Temps are expected to warm into 40s for
the high valleys and mid 40s to lower 50s for the plains on Sat,
then upper 30s to mid 40s for most areas on Sun. The one thing to
keep an eye out for however will be the timing of the cold front and
of the upper trough. If both features slow down, Sat may end up
being far warmer with a small window for potential critical fire
weather conditions across the plains. stay tuned.

Monday...Temporary ridging across the state, with isolated snow
showers over the central mts likely. Temps are forecast to warm
slightly, with highs in the 40s to around 50F for most areas. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 328 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

Although precip will likely come to an end across the southeast CO
plains after sunset, clouds are likely going to linger at KCOS and
KPUB into the nighttime hours. The question is how low will they be.
ATTM, given the weak upslope southerly flow which is expected to
occur at KCOS tonight., believe cigs will remain rather low at this
TAF site, KPUB will also see clouds, but hi res guidance indicates
some drier air filtering in at the lowest levels which may keep
cigs up a bit. Any cigs should break at or after sunrise tomorrow.

KALS will be VFR next 24 hours with light winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH


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