Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 281448
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
848 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT ALONG THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR...RAP AND NAM
SHOWING A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
DURING THIS AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIOD. IF HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY IN LATER RUNS...WILL HAVE TO TWEAK
POPS UP HIGHER. /HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. OTHERWISE CALM
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING SLIGHTLY
DRIER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING.

TODAY...

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER UTAH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A PERIOD MTN TSTMS WITH HOT
AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE PLAINS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING
SHOWS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURE DROPPING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO
BETWEEN 18-21Z. THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL HELP DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS OVER THE PIKES PEAK MASSIF AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND 500-1000J OF CAPE WITH
MARGINAL SHEAR IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
WEAKER SIDE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.
HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LCLS AROUND 8 KFT AGL. MAIN CONCERN WITH TSTMS WILL BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. STEERING WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE MTN AREAS. EL PASO COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW TSTMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND DUE TO HIGH BASES.

TONIGHT...

AFTER 00Z THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SRN MTNS...WHERE
TSTMS WILL STILL LINGER...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING AS
RADIATIVE PROCESSES BECOME DOMINATE AND THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE EXITS
THE REGION. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MTN TSTMS BEGIN TOMORROW. -AL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

WESTERN UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
MON/TUE...LEADING TO A DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS
HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE. WILL STILL KEEP
SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS MODEST AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH UNFAVORABLE N-NE
STEERING CURRENTS KEEPING MOST STORMS WEST OF I-25. MAX TEMPS MON
SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN SUN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH FOLLOWING LATE SUN WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHILE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED. ON
TUE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND OVER THE PLAINS...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY WILL CREEP UPWARD TOWARD THE 100F MARK.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD BEGINNING WED...AS SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. FIRST WAVE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WED...THOUGH FRONT MAY
BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF
RATHER HOT TEMPS ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. AS POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE DEEPENS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE AREAS FARTHER WEST SEE A CONTINUATION OF
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS. FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST...WHILE LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW CONTINUES
BRING MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO CO. PATTERN WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE REGION...FAVORING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MOST
PLENTIFUL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE READINGS
THU AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COOLER AIR PUSHES SOUTH...WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE READINGS THEN CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. KCOS WILL LIKELY SEE TSTMS DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY
BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z AS CONVECTION GETS AN EARLIER START OVER THE
PIKES PEAK MASSIF. KALS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN
THE VCNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19-03Z. KPUB WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE VCNTY TSTMS AS CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...28



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