Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 291726
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
PLAINS...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT EAST OF A LINE FROM LA
JUNTA TO KIM...A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...

...TEMPS BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT...

CURRENTLY...

A DEEP 500 MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NEVADA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIF. CLOSER TO HOME OVER THE
CWA...PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW WERE CONTINUING OVER THE SW SAN JUANS
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS NOTED ON THE PX1000 RADAR. OCCNL CG STRIKES
WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND EVEN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE EVEN CREPT ONTO THE PLAINS IN EL PASO
COUNTY. LOW CIGS WERE NOTED ON TOP OF THE PALMER DVD PER THE ELBERT
(KMNH) OB.

TODAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS LIKELY TODAY. AS SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE
DEEP TROUGH...EXPECT SYSTEM TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. 50+ DWPTS
ARE ALREADY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WHEN THE STRONG
KINEMATICS REACH THE INSTABILITY (~1000 J/KG OF CAPE) THIS
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THE
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE PLAINS MAY SEE SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...THE BEST SHEAR IS GOING TO OCCUR OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT AND BACA COUNTIES.
THE SIG TORNADO PARAMETER WAS RATHER HIGH...SO ROTATING STORMS...AND
A TORNADO OR TWO...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
FORCING...I DO EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP...AND
THE SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION.

EXPECT THE STRONGER CONVECTION TO GET GOING AROUND 20 UTC JUST ALONG
OR EAST OF I-25...WITH THE LINE ADVANCING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. THE CONVECTION MAY GO SEVERE RATHER RAPIDLY GIVEN THE
SHEAR AND FORCING. BY 00Z...EXPECT THE LINE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
FAR E PLAINS. I DO EXPECT WE WILL SEE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR THE
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

RESIDENTS IN ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND ESPECIALLY
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP WHILE SCHOOL IS STILL IN SESSION.

TONIGHT...

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS....AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KS DURING THE 02-04Z TIME
FRAME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER...COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH OR GO BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT. TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 28 AND 32F WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR THIS REGION FOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW
SPREADS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TO BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWER AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM GOING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH 60S TO 70S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH INTO COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CLEARING SOUTH AND EAST
BY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATING PRETTY COLD AIR MOVING INTO
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 9 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 60S TO 70S FOR THE PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...LOCATIONS OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH FROST AND
FREEZES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS WITH NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD ACROSS
THE WHOLE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE WITH 70S TO 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EACH AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING OVER ALS THROUGH 00Z
AND OVER COS AND PUB THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH 06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...23


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