Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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087
FXUS65 KPUB 262125
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
325 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

...Potential for heavy rain and mountain snows continues into
morning...

Severe potential will be shifting northward through the afternoon
as the front lifts northward...and may be largely done by 6 PM.
Wrap around spreads in tonight as the upper low slowly moves
eastward across Colorodo. This will put a steady rain/higher
elevation snow across the area...particularly for the Pikes Peak
region. For now...although rainfall could be moderate at times
tonight through Friday...think that rates are not as likely to
exceed flash flood thresholds on the Waldo burn scar as previously
thought. There certainly could be some enhanced runoff into
fountain creek...but this may end up being more steady rises
rather than a sudden one. The only caveat to this is if a strong
to severe cell hits the Waldo Burn scar this afternoon. If this
happens...then there would be a potential for flash flooding...with
greatest threat before 6 PM. Since cells will be hit or miss early
on...no plans to issue any flash flood watches at this point.

Should see a pretty good band of rain and higher elevation snow
take shape and move eastward across the plains on Friday as the
upper low pulls eastward with UVV associated with upper level
deformation, along with mid level north to northeast flow
impinging on the eastern mountains. Cooling aloft under the
passing low, with H7 temperatures progged between 0C and 4C across
the area into early tomorrow morning, supports snow levels down
to around 9000 feet before lifting back up to at or above 10K
through the day, with scattered showers and thunderstorms area
wide through the afternoon. Current winter weather highlights
still look good with total snow accumulations of over a foot on
top of Pikes Peak and 2 to 4 inches across the rest of Teller
County, with 4 to locally 8 inches across the higher elevations
of the Sawatch and Mosquito Ranges, and the Sangre de Cristo and
Wet Mountains. The passing system sends a cold front across the
Eastern Plains, with breezy north winds and temps below seasonal
averages expected across the area through the day tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Saturday-Sunday...Drier westerly flow aloft across the area Saturday
gives way to increasing southwest flow through the day on Sunday
ahead of an embedded disturbance translating across the southern
Rockies through Sunday night. There will be enough residual moisture
to support isolated to scattered showers and storms across the area
Saturday afternoon and evening, with the best coverage over and near
the higher terrain. There remains some model diffecences on
Sunday, through there looks to be a better chance of showers and
storms expected across the area through the afternoon and
evening, with stronger storms possible across the far SE Plains
with a dry line in the vicinity of western Kansas. Temperatures
look to be at or slightly below seasonal averages through the
weekend.

Monday-Thursday...A relatively cool and unsettled weather pattern
remains in the offing through early next week, as another embedded
disturbance translates across the northern and central Rockies
sends a front across the plains on Monday, with cool upslope flow
persisting across the area on Tuesday. This will keep generally
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms possible
through the period, with temperatures remaining at or slightly
below seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

VFR conditions will transition to to MVFR as thunderstorms develop
over the mountains and spread eastward onto the plains this
afternoon through tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon after 20-21z for KCOS and KPUB with
erratic wind gusts to 40 kts or higher along with hail...and heavy
rainfall. Winds will shift from the north after thunderstorms
roll through with gusts to 20-30 kts tonight. There may be a lull
in showers for the KCOS terminal before they increase again after
04z with more widespread MVFR CIGS and VIS due to rainfall. PUB
will see stratiform rain and MVFR conditions spread in after 09z.
Winds will increase again from the north at both KCOS and KPUB
Friday morning.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for COZ058-060.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ082.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Friday for COZ073-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT/MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT/MW



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