Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 041728
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1028 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW SHIELD BLANKETING SOUTHEAST COLORADO FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND WET MTNS EASTWARD CONTINUES TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD AS
INDICATED BY SFC OBS...RADAR AND EVEN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
RETREAT SOUTHWARD IS HELPED ALONG BY N-NELY WINDS DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE MONUMENT RIDGE/PALMER DIVIDE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
CONFINED LARGELY TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER...WITH A POCKET OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS UP
AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE WET MTNS AND DOWN AROUND THE SANGRES
SW OF WALSENBURG AND W OF TRINIDAD. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE COLORADO SPRGS AREA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM.
IN ADDITION WILL MOST LIKELY CANCEL THE WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
PUEBLO AREA AT THE SAME TIME....BUT CONTINUE THE ADVISIORY ZONES
SOUTH OF THERE UNTIL 2 PM MST.  EVEN WITH THE ADVISORY ENDING FOR
THE COLORADO SPRGS AREA WITH SNOWFALL PRETTY MUCH DONE HERE...MAY
SEE A RESURGENCE IN LIGHT SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 7-14KT SELY/UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
LASTLY...SHOULD SEE LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT. OVERALL...ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE THE
MAIN CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 AM MST
WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE WSW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

...UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH LIGHT SNOW TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH LYING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND INTO THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATING TWO PIECES OF ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN PIECE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A SECONDARY PIECE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AT THIS TIME.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST MODELS SUPPORTING PREVIOUS GFS FORECASTS
WITH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO MOVE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE THE BAND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...KEEPING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ONGOING OVER THE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS...INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SNOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY HEAVY...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS
AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND
PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA CONTINUES...WITH GENERALLY AN INCH
OF LESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ON TOP OF ICY (UNTREATED ROADS) DUE TO AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN MTS...THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...WHICH
PARE OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE  NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE CONTDVD...THOUGH NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS
AND WILL LET CURRENT WARNINGS EXPIRE AT 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...SOME
25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...WITH DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT ANY
RATE...LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...WITH COLDEST READINGS AT MT TOPS EARLY AND ACROSS THE VALLEY
LOCALES LATE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. LATE
THIS WEEK...THEN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY
FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGE POSITION WILL KEEP
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY NEXT WEEK.
ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPS WARM UP
LATE THIS WEEK...AND HOW WARM WILL THEY GET EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
FLOW TURNS MORE DOWNSLOPE. EXPECT RESIDUAL SNOW COVER AND COLD
EARLY MORNING TEMPS TO HOLD MAXES BACK A BIT THU...THOUGH MOST
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS
BY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND 700 MB WARM
ADVECTION SUGGEST FRI WILL BE WARMER...WITH MAXES BACK NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES MANY SPOTS. WEAK WAVE AND SOME VERY MINOR COLD
ADVECTION WILL TEMPORARILY STALL THE WARM-UP SAT...BEFORE
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW LEADS TO WARMER TEMPS FROM SUN INTO
WED...WITH MAXES DEEP INTO THE 60S OVER THE PLAINS BOTH TUE AND
WED AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE AT KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE VFR CONDITIONS ALREADY EXIST
AT KALS. FOR THE REMAINDER OT THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS SHOULD
TREND TO VFR AT KPUB BY 21Z IF NOT SOONER AS SFC WINDS TREND TO A
LIGHTER AND DRIER SELY COMPONENT. WHEREAS THIS SAME SELY WIND
COMPONENT MAY PRODUCE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MVFR CEILING IN
THE VICINITY OF KCOS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY. BUT NO NEW ACCUMULATION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ083-
086>088-094-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ072>075-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ081-
082-084-085.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER...WFO BOULDER
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...BAKER WFO BOULDER


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