Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 011636
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS
ALONG WITH LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW MOVING STRONG
VORTICITY MAX MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SPREADING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS REMAINING DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
LOWER PROBABILITIES OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER
CORES MOVE OVER BURN SCARS OR ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE NEAR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MONSOON CONTINUES FIRST HALF OF WEEK THEN DRIER LAST HALF...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SUMMER MONSOON
PATTERN WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DURING THIS PERIOD...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OVER NEW MEXICO...ALLOWING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO BECOME PREVALENT OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS
THE MONSOON TO THE SOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS...LEAVING COLORADO WITH A
MUCH DRIER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. DUE TO THE DRIER AND HIGHER
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...ANY STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL TEND
TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PRIMARY
STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z...AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  REDUCED
CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THE TERMINAL SEES
RAIN...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FOG HEADING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY AFTER 22Z.  IF THEY DO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS
THEY WILL BRING REDUCED VIS AND CIGS TO THE TERMINALS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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