Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 110540
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1140 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Based on latest real/near-time trends, adjusted grids to drop all
counties from the Severe Thunderstorm Watch #446, except for Las
Animas and Baca counties.

UPDATE Issued at 352 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Updated to include severe thunderstorm watch for southeast
Colorado plains until 10 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...Active Evening Ahead with Severe Storms Possible on the Plains...

Boundary evident in satellite pictures this afternoon advancing
steadily south and westward toward the Palmer Divide.  A weak
boundary has already formed along the Palmer Divide in response to
normal upslope diurnal processes on each side of the divide.  The
bigger, more operative boundary will merge with it over the next
couple hours.  First round of convection associated with incoming
shortwave has fired over the mountains and is now working east onto
the plains.  Storms will gradually increase in intensity through the
afternoon, becoming strong to severe over the Pikes Peak Region by
late in the day.  From there, the severe potential will progress
southeastward across the plains through the evening following the
boundary.  Storms are moving right along this afternoon.  That is an
indication of the stronger winds aloft.  As the lower level winds
crank up from the east through the afternoon, behind the boundary,
shear values will increase to around at 50 knots.  This will
increase the potential for supercell storm development through the
evening. Most storms will be capable of locally heavy rain, wind
gusts to 50 mph, pea size hail and lightning.  However, the larger,
more organized, persistent supercells that develop will be capable
of hail an inch or more in diameter, wind gusts to 60 mph or more
and possibly even a tornado.  There is also a flash flood threat
this evening. The Hayden Pass scar probably has the lowest chance of
getting hit tonight.  High res models do not really have anything
too intense moving across the scar.  The Junkins scar may not get
hit much at first, but as the boundary backs into the mountains
later this evening, something more intense and long lasting could
develop.  Hi res models suggest this with late convective
development in the vicinity of the scar. The Waldo probably has the
greatest odds of getting hit this evening. This is where the models
suggest the most persistent and possibly recurring storm
development. Luckily, the Waldo is the most resilient of the 3
scars, having had both significant regrowth and mitigation. Another
area of flash flood concern will be out east across the plains.
There could be the local threat from supercells first. Then, later
in the evening, the more widespread and persistent flash flood
threat will start to materialize as convection merges into a complex
somewhere along the Kansas border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Will keep this brief due to ongoing active conditions. Primary
longer term meteorological issues include strong to marginally
severe storms at times(primarily into early next week), heavy
rain/localized flash flood potential, pops and temperatures

Recent longer range forecast model soundings, computer simulations
and PV analysis suggest that a relatively moist airmass will continue
over many portions of the forecast district into early next week
with some drying and warming then anticipated by later next week.

Projected capes/LI`s and 0-6km bulk shears values in the 1000+
J/KG, -5C and 40+ knots ranges respectively at times are expected
at times into Monday(favoring eastern sections), which will allow
for the potential of strong to possibly severe storms at times
during this time-frame.

In addition, storms capable of producing heavy precipitation(including
localized flash flooding potential at times) are also anticipated
into at least late this weekend/early this week. As always, WFO
Pueblo will issue hydro/severe products as needed.

Finally, maximum temperatures generally running near to below
mid-August climatological averages are anticipated into Monday,
with maximum temperatures then running near to above mid-August
climatological averages expected from Tuesday into next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Convection was starting to move out of the area as of 0530z, and
with easterly llvl flow for much of the plains, feel that areas of
fog are likely for plains areas along the Arkansas River reaching
as far west as KPUB. Look for a mixture of VFR to MVFR conditions
overnight for most areas, with IFR conditions probable where fog
develops.

Mountain convection then develops between 18-20z, with storms
spreading to lower elevations, including the three main TAF sites
of KCOS, KPUB and KALS in the late afternoon. Where storms do
develop, expect IFR conditions due to lowering cloud heights and
intermittent vsby restrictions under heavier rain showers.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOORE



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