Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 222120
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
320 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

At 2 pm, GOES-16 imagery shows departing shortwave into southwest
Kansas and modest CU across the higher terrain of southern Colorado.
Next shortwave seen moving into southern Wyoming.  Radar shows light
echoes across the higher terrain, migrating into the adjacent lower
elevations.  Pinpoint isolated showers across the plains probably
managing no more than very light passing showers/sprinkles.

Tonight, by late afternoon and early evening, upward motion
increases with the next shortwave moving rapidly south along the
front range.  Models shows another round of scattered or numerous
showers and storms moving north to south starting around 00Z and
lasting into the overnight.  The cold front will feature a burst of
strong winds from the north gusting to around 40 mph. Model CAPE
values do not exceed 500 j/kg, so any storms will likely be sub
severe. The storms and showers are scheduled to exit southeast
Colorado before 12Z.

There will be some more mixed snow and rain across the higher
elevations, although any accumulating snow will probably be above
8000 or 9000 feet.

In northern El Paso County, there will be a brief time around the
Monument and Black Forest area when the temperatures settle to near
freezing early morning, but not worthy of a freeze highlight.

Tuesday, north to south all all levels on the back side of an upper
low across the Mississippi Valley.  Mid level temperatures are a few
degrees lower than Monday`s values, so it will be a brisk late May
day with highs in the 60s across the plains.  50s and 60s will occur
across the high valleys and 30s and 40s across the higher
elevations.  The air mass will be fairly dry, so it will be
difficult to squeeze a few showers out across the higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Active weather looks to remain in place across southern Colorado
through the extended period. Several disturbances and a couple of
cold fronts will lead to enhanced periods of rain and higher
elevation snow, primarily Thursday evening and again on Saturday.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...a few showers are possible
Tuesday evening as an upper disturbance move southeast into the
Southern Plains. Once showers dissipate, expect dry conditions for
the later half of the night, and all day on Wednesday as high
pressure moves across Colorado. Flow will transition more westerly
Wednesday afternoon, with the next energy moving into the
Continental Divide Wednesday night with isolated shower activity.

Thursday through Monday...as the ridge axis propagates to the
East, the region will begin to be affected by a complex of upper
level low pressure systems. The mountains will be the first to be
affected, with moisture originating from the Pacific likely
bringing light snowfall accumulation to mountain peaks above 9000
feet.

The SE plains will begin to have diurnal thunderstorms starting
Thursday afternoon, as the upper level low from the Pacific
Northwest begins propagates closer to SE Colorado. Friday
afternoon surface winds will be from the Northeast, bringing the
best chance for showers and thunderstorms over the northern
regions of our CWA. Saturday afternoon, on the other hand, lee
cyclogenesis develops south of the region, enabling the surface
winds will be from the south and southeast, bringing favorable
moisture over the region, as well as upslope flow up the Palmer
Divide and Arkansas River Basin, meaning that storms will be more
favorable to develop across most of the Eastern reaches of our
CWA.

Sunday, during the early morning hours, the cyclone is located over
the Oklahoma and Kansas border, bringing wrap around precipitation
across Southeastern Colorado. Uncertainty is quite high, in
regards to the placement and strength of the cyclone. The GFS has
an impressive surface low developing during this time period,
whereas the Euro has a weaker low developing.

Continued showers will remain possible, especially along the
Eastern Mountains with northerly wrap around flow from the low off
to the east, however, coverage will continue to decrease
throughout the day. Mozley/Skelly

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

At KALS...VFR tonight and Tuesday with a low chance of brief MVFR
with passing showers, so have a VCSH in TAF.

At KPUB and KCOS...generally, expect VFR at both TAF sites, but
showers and thunder may bring back brief MVFR conditions along and
east of the mountains from 00z- 08z. VFR conditions expected for
Tuesday.

Mountains will likely be obscured as next round of precip moves
through this evening and overnight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...MOZLEY/SKELLY
AVIATION...TM



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