Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
633 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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