Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 150515
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1015 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 409 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

A shortwave trof bringing some light showers to portions of the
eastern plains this afternoon, will move out of the area this
evening and will bring an end to pcpn chances, and clouds will
decrease.  There is a chance that the San Luis Valley could see some
low clouds/fog develop later tonight, but not certain if that will
happen.  Many areas tonight will probably see lows that are close to
average.  It looks like the southeast plains and the Upper Arkansas
River Valley will mostly see teens for lows, with lows in the San
Luis Valley ranging from around zero in the center portion of the
Valley, to the teens near the mountains.

Dry and warmer conditions return to the area for Friday.  Highs are
expected to be in the 50s to near 60 acrs the southeast plains, in
the upper 40s to lower 50s in the Upper Arkansas River Valley, and
in the lower 40s in the San Luis Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 409 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Not many meteorological adjustments required from earlier
meteorological reasoning with primary issues during the longer
term relegated to temperatures, gusty winds and pops at times.

Latest PV/Precipitable Water analysis, forecast model soundings
and computer simulations still suggest that warmer and drier
conditions will be noted into Saturday as dry zonal to
southwesterly upper develops over the forecast district.

Then, next system impacting southern Colorado from Sunday into
Monday will provide cooler temperatures and increased
clouds/pops(with primary heavier precipitation focus remaining to
the north and south of the CWA during this time-frame, although
light precipitation will be possible at times).

Warmer and drier conditions are then expected from Monday
afternoon into next Wednesday as generally dry northwesterly to
zonal upper flow returns to southern Colorado.

Then, potentially longer duration unsettled conditions are
expected to develop over the forecast district beginning next
Thursday as vigorous upper system in combination with a healthy
northerly surface surge begins to impact southern Colorado.

The highest potential for stronger winds over the forecast
district during the longer term should be experienced from
later Wednesday into next Thursday.

Warmest temperatures during the longer term should be noted
Saturday, Tuesday and Wednesday, while coolest conditions are
expected Sunday and next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1008 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Some low clouds were noted along the I-25 corridor at 06 UTC. In
addition low clouds/fog have developed at KALS. Since some snow
occurred in the Alamosa area, low clouds and fog should last into
at least mid morning at KALS. Skies should then become VFR
thereafter.

For KPUB, low clouds were moving out and redevelopment is not
expected. Likewise VFR expected next 24 hours with light winds.

KCOS should see some low clouds until around 09-10 UTC then north
wind should develop and clear KCOS out. VFR expected thereafter
with light winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...HODANISH


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