Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 180922
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
322 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

CURRENTLY...

LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW
STRATUS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THE LOW CIGS WERE NOTED
OVER THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER
AREAS WERE CLEAR.

TODAY...

WE WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED TO YDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE 700 MB FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC CONVERGENCE
LINE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LYING FROM EADS TO KIM BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC CONVERGENCE...AND REMNANT LLVL
MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
FORM ON THE PLAINS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING TIME PERIOD. MSTR IS NOT ALL THAT ABUNDANT...SO MOST
RAIN WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN OVER THE WALDO BURN SCAR WILL BE DURING
THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE ISSUES OVER
THIS BURN SCAR.

OVER THE MTNS TODAY...WE WILL SEE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME PDS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WARMING UP ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY AROUND
90 ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLAINS...80 VALLEYS AND 60S AND
70S MTNS.

TONIGHT...

WE WILL SEE MAINLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. /HODANISH


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...HEAT WAVE BEGINS THIS WEEKEND...

LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THIS SUMMER WILL BEGIN
ON SATURDAY AND LIKELY RUN THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE 4 CORNERS
REGION...WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING NR 600 DM IN THE TUE-THU PERIOD.
THAT STRETCH WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST OF THE PERIOD...WITH 100
DEGREE OR GREATER HIGHS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. WILL
CONTINUE TO STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH HIGH
TEMPS...STICKING CLOSER TO THE EC MOS GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE
HOTTER GFS MOS NUMBERS...SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINS AND CONSEQUENTIAL INCREASED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
POTENTIAL WILL HAVE ON THE MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...IT
SHOULD BE A SCORCHER WITH AT LEAST UPPER 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WISE...THIS WEEKEND SHOULD STILL SEE SCT AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOP AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES
TO A DIMINISHED EXTENT OVER OUR AREA. THEN...DRY SWRLY FLOW
RAMPS UP AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
MON-WED SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY WITH JUST ISOLD MT CONVECTION.
FIRST CHANCE FOR ANY RELIEF SHOULD COME LATE IN THE WEEK AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SRN CANADA...WHICH SHOULD BRING
A FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND USHER IN SOME
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR. ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER THE KCOS AREA THIS MORNING.
SOUNDING GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE VERY SHALLOW AND WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB..KALS AND KCOS. WE WILL SEE ISOLD TSRA AT ALL 3 SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PD...WITH BEST CHANCE A KCOS. A WIND SHIFT
WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE 20-22 Z TIME FRAME AT KCOS AND KPUB
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A NW COMPONENT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY NEARBY TSRA

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH


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