Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 021004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...MAIN BAND OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SW MTS AND NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE
DROPPED POPS A BIT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL MID
AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL PUSH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO N BY MID DAY...AROUND 18Z FOR
OUR NRN ZONES...THEN VEERING TO THE E AND SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS EVE. THIS WILL YIELD CAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE. BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS. SO...SVR PARAMETERS WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EWD...BUT SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT HIGHS YESTERDAY EXCEEDED FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS...HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGH
TEMPS.

STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS OVER THE SE PLAINS
THIS EVE. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO WIND DOWN...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT
POPS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SE AND EXIT INTO THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY FRI
MORNING. IF THE EXPECTED MCS LINGERS NR THE ARKANSAS RIVER
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME RENEWED CONCERNS FOR AREAL
FLOODING. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO FIR
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...KEEPING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS PERSISTING AND A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR/SE PLAINS.
PLENTIFUL CAPE OF 1-2K J/KG AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...THOUGH LACK OF ANY
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LEE SURFACE
TROUGH RETURNING TO THE PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCT MTN/VALLEY CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH
COVERAGE MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUN AS HEIGHTS BUILD. CONVECTION
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS
CONCEPTUALLY...WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW WOULD EXPECT A
DOWNTURN IN TSRA CHANCES IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE KS BORDER.
STILL...WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY...TOUGH
TO ELIMINATE CONVECTION IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA...SO WILL KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUESSING SUN AFTERNOON WILL
SEE LOWEST CHANCE OF STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD FROM FRI
THROUGH SUN...WITH WARMEST READINGS MOST LOCATIONS OCCURRING SUN
AFTERNOON.

STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT...WITH RENEWED MOIST
UPSLOPE MON AND TUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL RAMP UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PLAINS AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SLOSH BACK WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. WESTERN MOUNTAINS/VALLEY WILL REMAIN MOIST AS WELL WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. AIR MASS DRIES
SOMEWHAT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED/THU AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY...THOUGH STILL NOT NEARLY ENOUGH DRYING TO
ELIMINATE DAILY TSRA FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER A
COUPLE RATHER COOL DAYS MON/TUE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TOWARD
SEASONAL AVERAGES MID- WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD TS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z...AS STORMS DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER
THE MTS AND SPREAD E AND SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME PERIODS
OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO
TS. STORMS ALONG I-25 WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
HAIL...POSSIBLY ONE INCH OR GREATER FOR THE STRONGEST CELLS. STORMS
SHOULD MOVE S OF HGWY 50 FROM 03-06Z TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO NM
AND TX LATE TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER OVER THE
SE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



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