Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151042
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

Currently...

Skies clear over the region. Cold front has passed the region and
was located well into New Mexico. Temps at 3 am were generally in
the 30s across th plains and teens and 20s in the mtns/valleys.

Today...

A much cooler day expected as compared to yesterday. Max temps
expected to reach into the 55-60F range most regions with cooler
temps in El Paso county. Over the higher terrain expect highs in the
50s, with 30s in the mtns. Except for some passing cirrus, skies
will be clear.

Tonight...

Dry weather along with mostly clear skies anticipated. The only
change will be winds in the mtns, especially across the central
mountains vicinity Monarch Pass, will be on the increase. Otherwise
expect low temps by Thu morning to be  in the  U20s to M30s across the
plains with teens in the San Luis valley. Areas just east of the
mtns, especially the Wets and Sawatch range, will see the warmest
temps due to the increasing downslope winds. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

...Snow and Blowing Snow in the Mountains...Wind and Elevated Fire
Danger Elsewhere...

A potent upper level disturbance will track across the forecast area
from later Thursday through Friday Night.  This disturbance will
bring a prolonged period of snow and blowing snow to the Continental
Divide beginning late Thursday night and continuing through Friday
evening.  Precipitation will be much more scattered over the eastern
mountain ranges.  Only isolated rain and snow showers are expected
over the lower elevations.  The central mountain portion of the
Continental Divide, from Monarch Pass up to Fremont Pass, could see
6-12 inches with locally higher amounts.  Even Leadville could see 6
or more inches of snow.  The southwest mountain portion of the
Divide, south of Monarch Pass, could see 4-8 inches with locally
higher amounts.  All along the Divide, winds gusting to around 60
mph will cause widespread blowing snow and poor visibilities.  No
winter weather highlights yet because it is a bit too early but they
will be coming out soon.  The Continental Divide will see the brunt
of this storm, leaving just a few leftovers for the eastern
mountains where local accumulations of 1-3 inches will be possible.
The snow in the mountains should be just about over by midnight
Friday night, although the winds will likely continue through the
night.

For the lower elevations, the concerns with this weather system are
winds and elevated fire danger.  The winds will begin to increase
Thursday and Thursday night but they will really be howling Friday
and Friday night.  With a strong disturbance, upper jet and cold
advection bearing down on southern Colorado, gusts to 60 mph look
possible just about anywhere, with the potential for even stronger
gusts in the high country.  May even need high wind highlights at
some point.  Of course, with the high winds, comes fire concerns.
Right now, it doesn`t appear that humidities will be low enough to
require fire weather highlights.  However, with such strong winds,
dry fuels and little to no precipitation expected at the lower
elevations with this event, the fire danger will still be elevated,
especially on Friday.  Outdoor burning or any other activity that
could start a wildfire should be postponed during the Thursday
through Friday time frame.

After the Thursday/Friday system, the weather gets pretty quiet
again through at least Monday.  The next system that could impact
the area could arrive Tuesday afternoon if current model projections
are correct. However, this is a long way off so forecast confidence
is very low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 340 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be diurnally driven by this
afternoon and be relatively light.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...HODANISH


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