Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 140530
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1130 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017

A weather disturbance will continue moving eastward acrs the area
thru the evening, helping to kick off some showers and
thunderstorms.  The HRRR shows an area of pcpn heading eastward acrs
the plains as the disturbance moves east, late this afternoon
through about 05Z.

Late tonight another weak disturbance is forecast to enter southwest
CO, which could lead to some late night and early Thu morning pcpn
chances over the Continental Divide.  On Thu, an upper low is
forecast to move from srn portions of CA, acrs srn NV and into srn
UT.  Ahead of this system, moisture will increase over the area and
scattered shower/tstm are expected over the mtns and high valleys in
the late morning and afternoon hours, with possibly some isolated
storms spreading out over the I-25 corridor and eastern Las Animas
county by late afternoon.  Temps on Thu will be above average again,
with highs mostly in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the plains, but
a little cooler in northern portions of El Paso county, and in the
70s in the high valley locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017

No changes to the forecast thinking through the extended period. A
big pattern change looks to occur by Friday, with the monsoonal
ridge shifting east, and several upper disturbances dropping south
out of the Pacific Northwest, much more like a fall or winter type
pattern across the western states.

Thursday night...the first upper shortwave trough will be moving
across Colorado Thursday night. Expect ongoing widespread showers
and thunderstorms across the mountains, spreading east across the
Plains through the overnight hours. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with stronger storms. Expect this activity to push east
into the Central Plains by late Thursday night into Friday
morning.

Friday through Saturday...broad southwest flow will set up across
Colorado with troughing over the western states. Energy will pass
by well to the north leaving most of Southern Colorado dry both
Friday and Saturday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may be
possible over the Central Mountains, but do not expect them to be
widespread or last more than the afternoon and early evening
hours. Friday will be hot with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the Plains. A cold front from the system passing to the
north will bring cooler temperature to the area on Saturday with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Sunday through Tuesday...the next upper disturbance will move
across Colorado by Sunday bringing with it another round of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Central
Mountains, northeast across the Palmer Divide into northeast
Colorado. Meanwhile, the GFS brings moisture associated with a
tropical disturbance from the East Pacific north across New
Mexico. This may bring showers and thunderstorms to our southern
border as it moves northeast into central Kansas Monday and
Tuesday. The ECMWF does not have this tropical disturbance early
next week, and keeps shower and thunderstorm activity pretty
isolated to scattered in nature over the mountain areas, while the
Plains remain dry and warm.

Wednesday...a strong storm system is forecast to drop south over
the Great Basin by mid week. This would increase shower and
thunderstorm activity over the mountains. Current temperature
profiles also indicate there could be early season snowfall on the
high Colorado peaks as well.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Overall, VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. winds tonight and into tomorrow
are expected to be relatively light and diurnally driven. However,
by late tomorrow and into tomorrow evening a disturbance will move
across the region and this will bring a chance of TSRA and then
SHRA into the evening hours. Brief periods of MVFR will be
possible along with gusty winds with any TSRA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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