Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190405

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1005 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

...Thunderstorms Continue Mainly in and near the Mountains...

Monsoon remains over the region.  Current satellite estimates of
Total Precipitable Water values range from 110-130% of average along
the Continental Divide to 90-110% across the eastern plains. This
distribution of water in the atmosphere will favor more storms over
and near the mountains and fewer storms across the plains. This is
what we are seeing so far.  According to hourly high res model runs,
this is what is likely to continue this evening. Consequently,
scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue this evening over
and near the mountains with some isolated activity out across the
plains, including the the Pikes Peak Region, El Paso County and the
I-25 corridor.  Primary risks this evening will be similar to past
evenings. Flash flooding on burn scars and urban areas will be the
main concerns. Other concerns will include lightning, gusty winds to
around 50 mph and spotty hail, possibly up to the size of nickles.
Activity may continue a while longer into the evening than last. But
most activity should still diminish after midnight. Little change in
the weather pattern for tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Broad upper ridge across  the central US will be quasi-stationary
through tomorrow, and then slowly migrate south and east into the
southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
into early next week.

Somewhat drier air and subsidence within the upper high will
suppress convection some through tomorrow.  However, there is enough
moisture in place, especially across western sections, to bring
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms, most numerous
over the higher terrain. With the high repositioning southeastward,
flow aloft becomes more southwest and allows moisture plume to move
across the central Rockies for the weekend and into early next week.
This will bring more widespread coverage of afternoon and evening
storms through early next week. Models also continue to show cooler
air moving into the eastern plains on Saturday, leading to
increasing low level moisture and the potential for stronger storms
across the eastern plains both Saturday and Sunday.

Generally weak flow aloft will allow for the storms to move slowly,
bringing the potential for locally heavy rainfall, and a daily risk
of flash flooding, especially across area burn scars and urban
areas. Warm air aloft and less convection will lead to generally
above seasonal temperatures through the week, with temperatures then
cooling to slightly below seasonal levels into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

In general, VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS
thru the next 24 hrs. With all the rain that fell in the KCOS area
this evening, it is possible that some low stratus could develop
late tonight. KALS could continue to see some showers in the
vicinity through about 08z tonight. Wed afternoon there could be
some showers/tstms in the vicinity of KCOS.




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