Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211815
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SFC-H7 FLOW BECOMING MORE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS VORT
MAX ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST
INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH SECONDARY ENERGY TRANSLATING
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WITH THAT
SAID...SHOULD SEE ECHOES ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
AND WEST WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. WITH THE DEEPER
EASTERN FLOW...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL EXPECTED ON THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY...

CURRENTLY...SHORT WAVE ENTERING SRN ID AND UPPER LOW MOVING THRU SRN
CA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD TODAY...BEFORE PHASING AND DROPPING
TO THE SOUTH SE TONIGHT OVER NM. DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW HAS SET UP
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS MAINLY ALONG AND N OF HGWY 50...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. MAY SEE A BIT OF A
LULL OVER EL PASO COUNTY A BIT LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ANY BREAK
SHOULD BE BRIEF AS UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG AND JUST E OF THE ERN
MT RANGES TODAY...AND OVER THE RATON MESA AND SPANISH PEAKS
REGION...EWD TO PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. MODELS STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A FOOT...POSSIBLY MORE...OF SNOW IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

EARLIER SHIFTS LEFT THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE SO MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING PACKAGE. REMAINING CONCERNS FOCUS MAINLY
ON SOME OF THE ZONES CURRENTLY UNDER ADVISORIES...EL PASO
COUNTY...PUEBLO...OTERO AND BENT COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL OVER WRN EL PASO...SRN
AND WRN PUEBLO...AND SRN OTERO AND BENT COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A GOOD
PORTION OF THESE ZONES MAY STAY IN THE ADVISORY RANGE.
ALSO...ABSENCE OF STRONG WINDS WILL MITIGATE DRIFTING AND BLOWING
SNOW CONCERNS. SO...CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK ON TARGET AND CAN BE
ADJUSTED LATER IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...THE PHASED UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF NR THE 4 CORNERS
REGION...THEN TRACK SWD THROUGH NM ON THU. BEST FORCING AND LIFT
WILL SHIFT SWD AS WELL...SO WILL SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS FROM N TO S
OVER OUR AREA. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF
HGWY 50...BUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SERN
ZONES CURRENTLY UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING. H7 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL...TO AROUND MINUS 14 OR 15 OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME PRETTY LOW OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS
OVER THE MORE NRN ZONES. BUT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LINGERING INTO THU MORNING...WILL KEEP
MIN TEMPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY DURING THIS FCST PERIOD.

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STORM
THAT IS LIKELY GOING TO BRING QUITE A BIT OF BENEFICIAL SNOW TO THE
REGION WILL BE EXITING THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FCST TIME
PERIOD...12Z THU. ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING THU SUNRISE SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE MORNING THU.

TEMPS THU AND THU NITE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY
FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE SNOW ON
THE GROUND THU...KEPT MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U20S TO L30S ON THE PLAINS THU AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES THU
NITE...WE SHOULD GET QUITE COLD WITH MANY POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS AS
LOWS BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FROM FRIDAY ON...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY ON THE PLAINS...WITH
40S FRI...L50S SAT...M50S SUN...AND 60S RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR THE MTNS...CANT RULE OUT A PASSING SNOW
SHOWER...ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT ACROSS THE C MTNS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT COS AND PUB THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS. FOCUS OF
SNOWFALL TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR FOG
IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK.

SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSISTY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL. SHOULD SEE SOME
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULUATIONS AT ALS
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WITH VFR OR LOCAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR
COZ076>078-083>086-089-093-095>098.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR
COZ058>063.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ074-075-079-
080-087-088-094-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ065>073.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ081-082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE


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