Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251346
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
746 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

EXPANDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN VIEW OF MORNING MODEL DATA. ALSO
ADDED SOME FOG TO LAMAR AREA THIS MORNING IN VIEW OF WEB CAMERAS
AND SATELLITE. FINALLY...LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END
OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SLIGHT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...

UPPER HIGH CENTER THAT WAS OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION YESTERDAY WILL
DRIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY...ENDING UP OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF COLORADO BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW JUST A BIT
MORE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE STORMS WILL STILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGH...THERE WILL BE
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL TEND TO DROP OFF AS YOU HEAD EAST OF THE
CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRAY STORMS THAT MANAGE
TO SURVIVE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST CONVECTION WILL TEND
TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS
TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
HOT AGAIN...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...ACTIVE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL GREATEST ALONG THE CONTDVD ON WEDNESDAY...

DISTURBANCE WITHIN MONSOON PLUME ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO SOUTHERN COLORADO...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE CONTDVD. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE FROM
UNDER .50 FOR MOST AREAS ON MON...TO AROUND .75 TO 1.0 BY WED
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WHICH WILL INCREASE FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS
MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE THREAT AT LEAST SOME.
MEANWHILE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY DOESN`T BRING IN GOOD
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH SFC DEW POINTS STILL ONLY
IN THE 40S AT BEST...SO WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS HOT AND MAINLY DRY.

DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AGAIN...WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...SO THINK
GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SPOTTY MODERATE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS.

FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BUT ONLY MARGINALLY SO...WHILE PRECIPITABLE
WATERS START TO DROP BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CAPE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH ON THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH
FRONT MAY HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS THURSDAY...BEST UPPER FORCING APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO KS BY AFTERNOON. KEPT GENERALLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT WITH
NOTHING TO FOCUS THESE IN ANY GIVEN SPOT FOR ANY GREAT LENGTH OF
TIME...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR MUCH OF A CONCERN
AT THIS POINT.

UPPER TROF PUSHES EASTWARD AND ANOTHER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE CAUGHT WITHIN THE RIDGE TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

NEXT UPPER TROF LOOKS A TAD SLOWER NOW TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. WHICH DELAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SPREAD
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH AT LEAST SOME RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS..GRIDS WILL CARRY ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT FROM OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THIS EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW A BIT MORE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND ALLOW IT TO SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TO THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  CONSEQUENTLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. FOR THE PORTION OF
THE FLIGHT AREA EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...STORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY STORM OR TWO COULD MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  GENERALLY VFR TODAY...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...GENERALLY VFR NEXT 24
HOURS.  HOWEVER...KCOS COULD SEE VCTS BY LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL ADD
TO THE TAF WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.  TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR KPUB AND KALS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...LW


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