Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 261928
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high
pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Near term forecast on track with just minor adjustments to
temperature/dewpoints/sky coverage.

Wly flow aloft a result of central NC being in the base of broad
upper level trough will maintain fair and dry conditions tonight.
The approach of a minor s/w will sharpen the trough overnight,
lowering heights 30-40m. This flow will eventually usher in areas of
mid-high level cloudiness overnight, primarily over the Piedmont
counties. Min temps generally in the 60-65 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

The s/w cross central NC late Tuesday/early Tuesday evening. Lift
associated with the system, coupled with afternoon heating and
available moisture should spark the development of a few showers by
mid day across the Piedmont. This convective threat will spread into
the Sandhills and coastal plain where coverage may be enhanced due
to timing and slightly better low level moisture. Current CAM
solutions are a little too robust considering current coverage
across the lower Great Lakes/mid-MS Valley. Capped PoP at 30 percent
east of highway 1 Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday evening.

Variably cloudy skies and patchy showers will yield temperatures
several degrees below normal for late June. High temps Tuesday upper
70s NW to the low-mid 80s southeast.

The system will exit our eastern periphery early Tuesday evening
with rain chances decreasing shortly after sunset. Subsidence in the
wake of the system will lead to decreasing cloudiness with mostly
clear skies anticipated after midnight. Where showers do occur
Tuesday, residual moisture left in their wake under clearing skies
may lead to the formation of patchy fog. Min temps generally 55-60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

A mid level trough will continue moving east on Wednesday with a
general west-to-east flow Thursday into early next week.  At the
surface, high pressure will crest over the region Wednesday, then
settle offshore into early next week. Return flow around the high
will yield gradually increasing temperatures and humidity levels.
Scattered afternoon and evening convection will develop Saturday
through Monday as instability and low level moisture reach
sufficient levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday through Saturday/...
As of 140 PM Monday...

VFR parameters expected across central NC through Tuesday. The
approach of a mid-upper level disturbance will result in patchy mid-
high level cloudiness later tonight through Tuesday. Enough lift may
exists to cause a few showers to develop late Tuesday morning
through Tuesday afternoon. However, occurrence at any one TAF sites
appears minimal at this time, so will omit from forecast. Sfc winds
through Tuesday afternoon will be less than 8 kts. In addition,
ceilings will be at or above 6000 ft.

High pressure will settle in behind the exiting disturbance Tuesday
night into Wednesday, then linger overhead through Thursday night.
As this high exits offshore Friday, the return sly flow will advect
a moist unstable air mass into our region, setting the stage for
scattered afternoon-evening convection, and early morning low clouds
and fog. Thus, the potential for periods of MVFR/IFR parameters will
increase, beginning Friday morning and continuing into the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS/Franklin
AVIATION...WSS



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