Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 211034 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 635 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level trough will drift south of our region today, then linger while weakening through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will extend south across the middle Atlantic states for the next several days.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Thursday... A weak mid/upper level trough/low is slowly sinking south and eastward across the area this morning, helping to support of few lingering showers/storms across mainly western portions of the area (with a few new showers/storms trying to develop across our NE). The weak mid/upper level trough/low will continue to sink south and eastward across the area today, helping to support the development of isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms, with the great threat of showers and storms across southern/southeastern portions of the area. Temps are expected to be similar to today, though low level thickness values are expected to be slightly lower than yesterday. This will yield temps generally a degree or two lower than yesterday. Expect highs will range from the mid 80s NW to near 90 across the S/SE. Convection is expected to wane late evening into the overnight/drift to the south of the area as the mid/upper trough/low sinks to the southeast of the area. Expect Low temps will be in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Thursday... A large ridge, centered over the Midwest, is expected to extend over our region Friday and Saturday. With the low level flow from the NNE and the main front well south, dry weather along with slightly above normal temperatures can be expected. Lows generally 60-65 north, mid to upper 60s south. Highs lower to mid 80s north, and mid to upper 80s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 AM Thursday... Obviously, most attention will be focused on TC Maria and the NHC official track. Currently, models and the NHC suggest a northward movement, remaining well offshore of the Outer Banks early to mid week. Plenty of time to watch. For now, dry and seasonably warm conditions expected for our region under high pressure. Highs generally in the mid to upper 80s, lows in the mid 60s (with typical climatological variability) each day. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 635 AM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are generally expected to continue through the 24 hour TAF period. However, another round of patchy sub-VFR visbys (mainly MVFR) will be possible this morning during the pre-dawn hours. Fog prone KRWI will stand the greatest chance of seeing any IFR/LIFR visbys. Any sub-VFR visbys are expected to quickly dissipate with sunrise. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible again this afternoon across central NC, primarily across southern portions of the region as a slow moving mid to upper level trough crosses the region. However, confidence is too low to include any mention the the TAFs at this time. Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected to continue late week through early next week across the area. However, patchy sub-VFR conditions in the pre-dawn hours may be possible each morning.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/Badgett NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...BSD

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