Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190544 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 145 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT... THEN SLOWLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY... RAIN STARTING TO SET IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIP SHIELD AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF...WITHIN THE FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. THIS NORTHWARD EXPANSION IS LITTLE FASTER THAN WHAT PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SHOWN AND THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE BY 06Z AS LOW AND MID- LEVEL FGEN REALLY RAMPS UP ON COOL SIDE OF THE SHARPENING COASTAL FRONT AND STILL DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...WITH STRONG INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.2-1.4". EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...RANGING FROM A ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO 1.25-1.5" ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS TONIGHT 45-50.-CBL SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAW AND CHILLY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND A STEADY NE FLOW AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE HIGH FORECAST TO THE NORTH... AND THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CLOUDINESS SATURDAY... THE THOUGHT IS TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS BACK TO A FEW DEGREES OF THE FORECAST WET BULB TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD YIELD READINGS THAT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE NORTH... AND 50S ELSEWHERE SATURDAY. A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (SOUND FAMILIAR??). && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY... MODELS GENERALLY TAKE THE MID/UPPER LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST ON AN EASTWARD TRACK... BUT SLOWLY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PROLONGED NE FLOW IS PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING CLEARING. CURRENT POPS SHOW THIS TREND. THE STEADY RAINFALL SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER WITH TIME EVENTUALLY TAPERING TO OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. LOWS WITH A BREEZY NE WIND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. IT APPEARS THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING IN THE NW ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY STILL FAVOR LOW CLOUDINESS TO LINGER ELSEWHERE MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT: THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WITH IT. THUS LOOK FOR SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT FOR SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR NORMAL...UPPER 40S. DURING THE DAY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FACILITATE FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKE FOR US WILL BE A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY PROGS SUGGEST SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR PROGS...AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JET...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RISK FOR INTENSE CONVECTIN IS LIMITED...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID- UPR 70S. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY... AN EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED ON THE FL GULF COAST WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY... DESPITE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAY... VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE WITH MOST VSBYS AOA 6SM AND CIGS AOA 4 000 FT... WHILE FAY HAS SEEN A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN BRINGING IN IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. THESE IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO FAY THROUGH 12Z... AND MAY CREEP INTO THE VICINITY OF RWI. AT INT/GSO/RDU... VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z... ALTHOUGH VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. AFTER 12Z... RDU/RWI SHOULD FALL TO MAINLY MVFR... LASTING UNTIL AROUND 19-21Z... WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. INT/GSO SHOULD REMAIN VFR... ALTHOUGH A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING IS POSSIBLE. FAY IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. AT INT/GSO/RWI/RDU... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 21Z AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR NOSES IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH... WITH JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE AT MOST FROM 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (06Z SUN). LOOKING BEYOND 06Z SUN... EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT FAY 06Z-09Z THEN TO VFR BY 12Z... AND MAINLY VFR CIGS AT ALL OTHER SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MON NIGHT. PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NW WILL BRING A RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUE/TUE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...CBL/BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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