Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 200702 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front across the eastern Carolinas will linger overnight, then dissipate on Sunday. A strong cold front will approach the area on Wednesday and reach the coast on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1010 PM Saturday... Little if any changes required to the near term forecast. At the surface, a stalled, weak sfc front was wavering across the eastern counties of central NC. With the setting sun, sfc dewpoints have recovered as dewpoints at or above 70 degrees were observed over all but the northwest Piedmont. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, a trough was exiting our region, leaving a drier air mass in its wake. Overnight, expect tranquil weather conditions under mostly clear skies. Could see a few pockets of fog or low clouds by daybreak in the Sandhills or coastal plain but most locations will have clear skies. Overnight, the stalled sfc front will gradually wash out as the mid/upper level trough lifts east-newd. This will allow a weak high pressure system to nose into our region by Sunday. Under mostly clear skies, overnight temperatures will generally be in the 70-75 degree range. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Saturday... A shearing short wave trough at 500 hPa shifts across the eastern Carolinas on Sunday morning with increasing heights on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. The cold front that stalled near the coast will retreat inland and washout during the day. The light and variable low-level flow to start the day becomes southeasterly on Sunday afternoon and southerly on Sunday night. A drier atmosphere, ridging aloft, and limited forcing for ascent should keep central NC generally convection free on Sunday. It`s worth noting that the exception will be some isolated convection that develops across the higher elevations of NC that drifts east, weakens and likely dissipates as it approaches the NW Piedmont late in the afternoon/early evening. An isolated shower or storm is possible across the southern and southeastern tier in proximity to the cold front. Feel that warm mid-levels and ridging aloft will keep coverage very limited and will not include a PoP at this time. Low- level thickness values increase a few meters over Saturday and would support highs between 90 and 95. Dew points in the mid 60s to around 70 will result in heat index values less than 100 degrees. The southerly flow will allow nocturnal dew points to creep up and result in lows in the 69 to 75 range. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday... Relative dry but warm weather continues through Tuesday in return flow regime ahead of our next frontal system which will be passing through the area on Wednesday. Chance of rain will ramp up ahead of the front on Wednesday, with chances lingering into Thursday in the east. Highs will peak both days in the low to mid 90s, with some upper 80s across the north behind the front on Thursday. The drier and cooler airmass behind the front will settle down the east coast Thursday into the weekend, with highs mostly in the low and mid 80s each day after morning lows in the low and mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 244 PM Friday... Relatively dry but hot weather continues through Tuesday in a return flow regime ahead of our next frontal system which will be passing through the area on Wednesday. Chance of rain will ramp up ahead of the front on Wednesday, with chances lingering into Thursday in the east. Highs will peak both days in the low to mid 90s, with some upper 80s across the north behind the front on Thursday. The drier and cooler airmass behind the front will settle down the east coast Thursday into the weekend, with highs mostly in the low and mid 80s each day after morning lows in the low and mid 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 115 AM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Clear skies and calm winds will support the development of fog between 06 to 12z, mainly across eastern portions of the forecast where very moist low-level air remains pooled along the stalled frontal zone. The latest HRRR suggest visibility restrictions could fall as low as LIFR in dense fog at our eastern most TAF sites (KRWI and KFAY). Will introduce predominate IFR ceilings at KRWI and KFAY beginning at 08 to 09z, with a tempo group for LIFR conditions at these locations between 09 to 13z. Any fog that develops should lift and dissipate by 14z, with VFR conditions and dry weather are expected for Sunday afternoon. Outlook: The threat of mainly afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms and late night/early morning fog/stratus is expected to increase a bit on Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front is expected to approach the area on Wednesday and reach the coast on Thursdays bringing a greater chance of adverse aviation conditions in showers and thunderstorms. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...CBL/BLAES

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