Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241354 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 955 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A dry cold front will cross central North Carolina later this afternoon. High pressure will build over the area tonight and remain through the mid-week period.
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As of 955 AM Monday... The cold front expected to drop south-southeastward through NC later today is currently analyzed just south of the Ohio River and Mason- Dixon line, denoted by little more than a shift in surface winds and perhaps a slight cooling (the notably cooler/drier air is still back over WI/MI, behind a diffuse reinforcing front). The air mass preceding and along the front is quite dry, noted on both WV imagery and upstream upper air data, with stable mid levels, and model projections of no precip with this front -- and only some high thin clouds -- appears validated. Winds just aloft at 850 mb have been rather brisk from the WNW at 25-35 kts overnight, especially across our north, and this deep flow from the WNW to NW has contributed to the overall drying. The presence of some high level moisture in tandem with the also-favorable vertical thermal and kinematic structure has fostered orographically enhanced cirrus clouds, although these should be on the decline as winds aloft weaken a bit with increasing lapse rates aloft with heating/mixing. Based on warm thicknesses around 15 m above normal and good insolation today, have nudged up highs to 74-79. -GIH Previous discussion from 623 AM: A cold front over the Ohio Valley ATTM will drop SE this morning and uneventfully move across central NC during the mid-day or afternoon hours. With dry conditions prevailing both pre-and post-fropa, look for mostly sunny conditions with temps climbing into the mid 70s before fropa. For tonight, high pressure will begin building into our area from the NW in the wake of the front. Clear skies and cool temps with lows in the lower to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Monday... High pressure and dry conditions will provide fair weather during this time. Temps will run a few deg below normal in the wake of Monday`s front. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 340 AM Monday... Dry and slightly unseasonably cool high pressure ridged down the Atlantic coast lingers but begins to weaken on Wednesday. Meanwhile...a rather low amplitude upper trof moves east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley with its associated surface frontal system approaching on Thursday. Low level flow veers around southerly ahead of the front, with associated moisture and warm air advection conspiring to produce showers in the west early Thursday and across central NC during afternoon and evening. The strongest upper forcing remains north of the area as we remain on the wrong side of the upper jet, but do see low level wind directional convergence focusing rather narrowly over the eastern CWFA late day... coincident with the best...albeit nearly-anemic instability. Will refrain from mention of rumbles amidst the showers, but will modestly increase PoPs in the east. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to upper 60s...with some lower 70s south on Thursday due to longer duration of the warm air advection. Heights build a bit for Friday and Saturday, with highs mostly from 70 to 75 ahead of a reinforcing short wave approaching Sunday which will produce a weak shot of cool air advection and keep highs mostly in the upper 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 623 AM Monday... Latest KRAX VWP shows llws relaxing, and expect this to further improve after sunrise, thus will remove it from our 12z tafs. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period under mostly clear skies. Westerly SFC winds will gust between 15 to 20kt in advance of a dry cold front passage this afternoon, then becoming north to northeast tonight and gradually diminishing. Beyond 12z Tuesday through Friday...the next chance for sub-vfr conditions will be Thursday, assoc with the passage of the next cold front, which will have more moisture and better chance for rain. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hartfield/np SHORT LONG TERM...mlm is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.