Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 160624 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 225 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region this evening will give way to a cold front that will cross the area late tonight through Monday. This front will usher in much cooler air for Tuesday into Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will rebound back above normal late in the week, with continued dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 935 PM Sunday... Forecast is in pretty good agreement with observed trends and high res model output. The cold front has pushed into E TN and is on pace to jump into the NC Foothills by 06z before crossing the NC Piedmont by 12z. While blended TPW imagery shows values of 150-200% of normal along and behind the front, the moisture return both at the surface and mid levels is modest, and upstream rainfall amounts have generally ranged from a tenth to a quarter inch. High-end chance to low-end likely pops look like a good bet, and have nudged pops up slightly for later tonight through Mon morning. But it still appears that total amounts should be fairly small. Have made only minor adjustments to lows tonight, from around 60 NW to the mid 60s over the east and south. Still expect winds to veer to NNW and pick up post-front, most notable after 6 am, as the most dense air gets initially stalled by the mountains. -GIH Previous discussion as of 240 PM: High pressure across the area will shift offshore this afternoon in advance of a pair of shortwave troughs that will drive a cold front southeast through the area between 06 to 15z Monday. A hostile environment east of the mountains that features low-level downslope component and very weak instability with MLCAPE of only 100 to 200 J/Kg will result in very light/scattered rainfall along the front, with rainfall amounts expected to average a tenth or less, providing little to no relief to the growing D0 and D1 drought conditions across central NC. Lows overnight will be governed by the timing of the cold front into the area, with the bisecting front resulting in lows ranging from upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday... Cold front will quickly exit southern and eastern areas by 15z Monday. Hindered by the early diurnal timing, warm mid-level temperatures and poor lapse rates, showers will be limited along the front as it slips south of the area with rain chances largely over by 18z. There after, post-frontal dry cold air advection will lead to NW-SE clearing with occasional NWLY wind gusts into the teens. Much cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Continued cold air advection Monday night will result in chilly overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... As of 240 PM Sunday... We may see lingering high clouds across the southeast CWA early Tue along the mid level shear axis, but once that departs, rising heights aloft from the west and strong cool surface high pressure building in from the northwest will bring a dry, stable column. Apart from mostly scattered flat diurnal cumulus clouds, skies should be relatively cloud free during this period. The center of the surface high will move into the Mid Atlantic region Wed before stalling out over the central and southern Appalachians, where it will sit well into next weekend, anchored by a building mid level anticyclone over the Southeast. The high will modify late in the week, with the initially low thicknesses Tue (30-35 m below normal) recovering to near normal by Thu before rising to 10-15 m above normal Fri-Sun. Expect highs in the mid 60s to around 70 Tue, and we should see some gusty winds from the NE for at least the first half of the day. Tue night will be the chilliest, with outlying areas likely to drop into the mid-upper 30s, and some patchy frost not out of the question. Urban areas and locations across the southeast CWA should drop to around 40 to the lower 40s. Readings will then climb a couple degrees each day, with highs around 70 to the lower 70s Wed, mid 70s Thu, and upper 70s to around 80 Fri/Sat, with perhaps some lower 80s Sun. Lows Wed night in the 40s to around 50 will rise to be solidly in the 50s by Sun morning. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 AM Monday... A cold front moving across the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians at 06Z will push east across central NC this morning into the early afternoon hours bringing increasing and lowering clouds along with a broken band of showers and patchy light rain. MVFR ceilings with rain showers and areas of MVFR visibility restrictions are expected as the front moves through with conditions persisting for a few hours behind the front. A brief period of IFR conditions are possible in some embedded heavier rain showers. The most adverse aviation conditions are expected in the 09Z-13Z time range in the Triad and the 12Z-17Z time range in the Triangle, Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Winds will become northerly at around 12kts with gusts of 20 kts behind the front with a few gusts as high as 25kts. Conditions will improve to VFR between 13-15Z in the Triad and 16-20Z in the Triangle, Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Northeast winds of 8 to 12kts with mainly clear skies are expected this evening. Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...surface high pressure will build into the region tonight and Tuesday and persist through the end of the work week resulting in fair weather and VFR conditions. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Blaes is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.