Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 101910 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 209 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A dry cold front will cross the Carolinas early Tuesday, followed by much colder temperatures for the midweek period.
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&& .NEAR TERM /today through tonight/...
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As of 209 PM Sunday... High clouds currently seen on satellite over IL and IN are progged to continue drifting toward the SE on the back side of the longwave trough over the East. Those high clouds will drift across our area late this evening or overnight. Aside from these high clouds, fair weather is expected tonight with our area under the influence of dry westerly flow and high pressure building in from the west. With low level thicknesses staying the same or slowly increasing, tonight`s lows will be mainly a function of radiational cooling, temporarily slowed by the aforementioned clouds as they pass by. With current dwpts in the low-mid 20s, expect low temps tonight generally in the mid 20s. Unless we hear of reports otherwise, we`re not planning to issue a WSW for black ice since today`s sunshine and breezy winds have dried most if not all of the roads.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/...
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As of 209 PM Sunday... A short wave dropping SE across the western Great Lakes region will back the flow over our area, thus allowing for warming. Low level thicknesses will increase nearly 50m over the next 24-30 hours. Thus highs tomorrow will range from around 50 across the Triad, to low 50s Triangle, to mid 50s around Fayetteville. Otherwise, look for another day with plenty of sunshine, and perhaps some passing mid and high clouds Monday evening ahead of the aforementioned short wave. Passing mid and high clouds will continue overnight as the short wave and its attendant cold front crosses the Ohio Valley. Lows Monday night will fall to around freezing...a little warmer than previous nights thanks to the aforementioned clouds and an overall warming trend ahead of the front.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday... A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday which will put a damper on our brief warmup. Highs will reach the upper 40s to low 50s but it isn`t until later in the evening when the colder airmass begins to really filter in. Lows Tuesday night in the low to mid 20s. Continued cold air advection on Wednesday will see highs only reaching the mid 30s to lower 40s as this will be the coldest day of the long term. Lows Wednesday night again in the low to mid 20s. For the end of the week, a warming trend will gradually push high temperatures up to the 50 degree mark across central NC as high pressure builds over the deep south and moves south of the Carolinas and off of the east coast. There is some uncertainty between the GFS and the ECMWF in the handling of a low pressure system that forms in the Gulf of Mexico and moves northeastward over the Carolinas. The current EC scenario has the low well to the east and staying offshore, while the GFS has a much later timing with a westward track that would bring us some precipitation late in the weekend. With uncertainty so high will keep the forecast dry through Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Friday/... As of 1217 PM Sunday... VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period, thanks to mainly clear skies as high pressure builds in from the west. W to NW winds 10+ kts attm will diminish to SW 5kt or less this evening. After 11/18Z: Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the week with high pressure and dry airmass for most of this time period. The exceptions will be associated with cold front passages Tuesday, and another one late Thursday or early Friday. However, right now these systems are expected to pass by without any precip or reduced cig/vsby. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...np

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