Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 211914 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 313 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will drift south of our region today, then linger while weakening through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will extend south across the middle Atlantic states for the next several days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 313 PM Thursday... A weak upper low/concentric vort max across eastern NC will drift slowly eastward throughout the day and will eventually feed into the broad upper trough extending SW from TC Jose off of the southern New England Coast. The most concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms clustered around Johnston, Wilson and Wayne counties is coincident with the cold core low with H5 temps around -14C. Away from the upper core, coverage will remain isolated to widely scattered. Can`t rule out marginally severe hail ranging from dime to quarter size along with the potential for one or two trees down from the collapse of a core. Otherwise, convection will fade with loss of heating. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s, with the potential for patchy fog in areas that see any appreciable rainfall through the remainder of the evening. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 313 PM Thursday... Sheared remnants of the weak upper level low will linger across eastern NC as we begin to feel increasing influence of the strong mid-upper level ridge centered from the southern Plains to the Great Lake region. Can`t rule out an isolated shower/storm across the far SE zones. Otherwise, it will be dry on Friday with persistence in temperatures ranging from mid 80s NW to upper 80s SE. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... General troffing in the wake of Jose is pressed south as high pressure over the Great Lakes ridges south and drier air builds in for the upcoming weekend. This high pressure looks to remain over the area through the extended, pending any westward deviation in the forecast track of Maria, which is still progged to remain well offshore. Mid to high cloudiness will spread westward across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, with clearing by Thursday as Maria continues to recurve northeast. An airmass change is finally on the horizon, but slightly beyond this extended package...stay tuned as next weekend`s forecast comes into focus. In the meantime, highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with morning lows mostly in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 157 PM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Expect isolated to widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon, more clustered near KRDU, KRWI and KFAY. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any of the stronger storm cells. Otherwise, expect predominately VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Any storms will quickly diminish with loss of heating, leaving behind mostly clear skies overnight along with light to calm winds. MVFR fog will be possible area-wide, especially in areas that receive any substantial rainfall this afternoon. As always, fog prone KRWI will see visibilities fluctuate between IFR to MVFR between 06 to 12z. Dry VFR conditions are expected on Friday. Outlook: Aside from some patchy sub-VFR conditions from fog/stratus during the pre-dawn hours each morning, expected dry VFR conditions to persist through the weekend and into early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...CBL

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