Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 290535 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 135 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 912 PM FRIDAY... SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PATCHY AREAS OF CUMULUS WERE DISSIPATING AND SPREADING OUT INTO STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE REGION WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THERE WAS ALSO A STREAM OF CIRRUS RIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. MID EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM PA/MD ACROSS NC INTO SC. WINDS WERE LIGHT. OVERNIGHT... NO MAJOR ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE CIRRUS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT AT TIMES REVEALING FAIR SKIES. LOWS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S (INCREDIBLY COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST) AND ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY... SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE). REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY... THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 7-10KTS. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...WSS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.