Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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904 FXUS62 KRAH 171735 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 135 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure centered over the Northeast will extend south down the Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic through Monday. Hurricane Jose will pass well offshore of the NC coast on Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Sunday... Fog has begun to burn off and in its place some IFR stratus still exists across the east. While there are some signs of scattering in the Satellite, it appears that this could remain in place for another hour or two before returning to VFR. Previous discussion follows. -Ellis Otherwise, an area of high pressure to our west and Hurricane Jose` drifting northward well off the South carolina coast will maintain a nely low level flow, strongest over the coastal plain. The gradual tightening of the sfc pressure pattern will result in steady north northeast winds 8-10kts in the coastal plain with infrequent gusts 15-18kts. Weaker winds expected across the piedmont. Similar to Saturday, an isolated shower or two possible east of highway 1 though bulk of communities over the east will remain dry. Temperatures this afternoon expected to be comparable to Saturday, generally in the mid 80s with a few upper 80s in the far south- southwest. Tonight, more of the same with partly cloudy skies west and variably cloudy skies east as the cloud shield associated with Jose` begins to skirt our eastern periphery. Min temps generally in the mid 60s. -WSS && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Tuesday Night/... As of 335 AM Sunday... Monday and Monday night, expect little change in our weather pattern as the sfc ridge maintains a position to our west and Jose meanders northward well offshore. This set up will maintain a low level nely flow. Expect more clouds than sun over our coastal plain, with a mixture of sun and clouds across the west. Afternoon temperatures expected to remain warm, generally in the mid 80s. Isolated showers possible Monday afternoon, primarily along and east of I-95, though forcing appears rather weak. Jose` makes its closest approach to the NC coast Monday night. This will lead tom a steady nely flow across our eastern counties though sustained wind speeds should remain less than 10kts. Expect a decent cloud coverage over our eastern counties though forcing remains weak/non-existent, so showers, if any, should be few and far between. Will begin to see improving sky conditions across the east Tuesday afternoon as Jose` pulls away from the NC coast. This will lead to increasing sunshine and a lighter sfc wind. Afternoon temperatures once again in the mid 80s with a minimal chance for a shower along our eastern periphery. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 AM Sunday... Latest guidance suggests our forecast area will remain between several large-scale systems right through the long term period, with either neutral or subsident vertical motion and limited opportunities for precip during the period. Temps will remain above normal Wed and Thu given the lack of any significant airmass change, then perhaps cooling back to normal Fri and Sat with some suggestion in the models that ridging to our north will advect slightly cooler air into our area. Another system we`re closely watching is Jose and its eventual track. The ECMWF has been very consistent the past several runs showing Jose making a cyclonic loop Wed-Fri offshore south of the New England region, before drifting west and coming ashore across the Mid-Atlantic region late in the weekend. Should that happen, our area will be on the southern periphery of Jose remnants, with the main impact perhaps being some light rain across our northern zones late in the weekend. Of course we`re also closely watching Maria, and while the latest ECMWF looks interesting in the 8 to 10 day time-frame, inevitably a lot will change in the models during the next 8 to 10 days! && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 135 PM Sunday... 24 hour TAF period: Almost a mirror image to yesterday so far today as stratus has taken a long time but has finally scattered out in the east. A sprinkle or brief shower is possible along the I-95 corridor this afternoon but otherwise dry conditions should prevail. After sunset another round of fog and low stratus will move in from the northeast and cover the eastern and northern portions of the forecast area. Have kept it out of the Triad and KFAY for now but it is possible they could see at least some MVFR conditions overnight. Tomorrow expect some wind gusts in the afternoon of 15-20 kts as Hurricane Jose passes by the Carolina coast. Looking Ahead: Not much weather for the next several days as an upper level ridge remains north of the area. The usual fog/low stratus will be possible each morning.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...Ellis/WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Ellis

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