Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 012143 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 543 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY... A QUIET EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE REGION. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING HOLDS OVER CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST... THE POTENT VORTEX NOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS TN/KY/WV WILL HOLD IN PLACE TONIGHT... WITH VERY WEAK AND DIFFUSE TROUGHING OVER ERN NC HAVING LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELD. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE SE CWA INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CU FIELD IS PRONOUNCED HERE... BUT EXPECT VERY LITTLE COVERAGE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LOW SHEAR WITHOUT A CONVECTIVE FOCUS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT... TRENDING TOWARD THE LATTER LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH AND WEST CWA WHERE BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OFF THE TX/LA COAST MAY SPREAD IN... AS SUGGESTED BY THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS THIS MORNING BUT THE EASTERN SECTIONS (WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL STAY ELEVATED) COULD STILL SEE LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH ANY DENSE FOG ISOLATED IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED LOW- LYING AREAS OVER THE NE CWA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH GENERALLY CALM WINDS. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY... THE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND DROP TO THE SE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTS 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RISING TO AROUND 25 KTS LATE WED AFTERNOON... NOT GREAT BUT BETTER THAN WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE AT OTHER TIMES THIS WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A TAD TOO HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. WITH AN OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELD... LACK OF HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FEATURES... BARELY-NEAR-NORMAL PW... AND VERY LITTLE NEAR-SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE... DON`T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE`S PASSAGE. FOLLOWING THE TIMING AMONG THE NAM/GFS/SREF/NCAR ENSEMBLE OUTPUT... WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FAR NW CWA AFTER 18Z... SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER 21Z AND INCREASING TO 20-30%... THEN PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE ENDING AS MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE CWA LATE WED NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE SUBSIDENT AREA POST-WAVE ON THU... WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED OVER THE SRN NC BORDER AREA... SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION COVERAGE AT MOST. THICKNESSES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 BOTH DAYS... IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. LOWS WED NIGHT NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY... A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY. AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 545 PM TUESDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR VISBYS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (08-12Z) WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD: A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL TERMINALS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CENTERED NEAR THE IN/OH BORDER AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON) TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL EVEN DEVELOP DUE TO POOR DIURNAL TIMING. A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FRI INTO SAT. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...VINCENT

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