Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 192345 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 645 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build overhead late tonight and Monday. The high pressure will shift offshore Tuesday. Low pressure may develop off the Florida coast late Tuesday, and track northeastward along the Southeast coast during mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 PM Sunday... Only adjustment required to the near term forecast was to tweak hourly temperatures this evening to capture the observed trend. High pressure over the southern Plains will continue to build/extend east tonight. This weather system will be centered just to our west by morning, and over our region Monday afternoon. The high building into our region tonight should lead to a decoupling of the sfc winds later tonight. The cool dry air mass in place along with a near calm sfc wind will allow temperatures to tumble into the 30-35 degree range, and the upper 20s over portions of the western/southern Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Sunday... High pressure is expected to be overhead Monday into Monday night with very dry air in place to the surface. Low level thicknesses do increase some over the western Piedmont, with a light southerly return flow late Monday night. Most of this return flow will likely remain above the near surface layer given the expected near surface temperature inversion. Sunny skies are expected Monday with highs of 55-60. Clear skies are expected Monday night with lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s NE ranging into the mid 30s SW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 PM Sunday... The medium range portion of the forecast will be dominated by a trough across the eastern portion of the country, with a series of disturbances tracking across both the northern tier of the country and the Gulf Coast States/Southeastern U.S. Temps on Tuesday will be highly dependent on how much clouds and if we see any precip. For now will keep temps near to slightly below normal, generally ranging from the mid to upper 50s NW to the mid 60s SE. The best chance for rain is expected to be on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, albeit a low chance pop for some light rain. Quick moving northern stream disturbance is expected to move through the area on Wednesday morning ending any threat for precip, with surface high pressure building back into the area. However, another disturbance is expected to lift northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico and track along the baroclinic zone off the Southeast U.S Thursday into Friday. Medium range have trended further eastward with the track, resulting in dry conditions across central NC. However, given the lack of good run to run consistency will hold onto a slight chance of rain across the southeastern half of the area on Thursday into Thursday night, with temps turning colder by Thursday, with highs in the 50s, with some upper 40s. High are expected to rebound to near seasonal norms by Saturday, generally in the upper 50s to 60s. Yet another northern stream trough is expected to move across the area Saturday, resulting in another cool down for Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 645 PM Sunday... VFR parameters across central NC will persist through Tuesday as an area of high pressure will be in control of our weather. Sfc winds tonight through Tuesday will be variable at less than 10 kts. VFR parameters appear highly probable through the majority of the upcoming week. The exception will be a chance for MVFR ceilings Tuesday night through early Wednesday as an area of low pressure skirts northeastward up the Southeast U.S. coast. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...WSS

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