Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 281741 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 140 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 935 AM TUESDAY... OVERVIEW: DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. TODAY: LINGERING DRY AIR RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME OVERWHELMED BY STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WHICH IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...EVIDENT BY THE BANK OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. RAP SOUNDINGS AND HRR GUIDANCE OVERCAST INDICATE THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT/DISPERSE (NOT UNTIL BETWEEN 15-17Z) OWING TO A STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSION FROM LAST NIGHTS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE SLOW TO WARM IN THE AREAS WHERE THE FOG/STRATUS LINGER LONGEST...MAKING FOR A HODGEPODGE OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER FROM 18Z ONWARD...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A LATE SURGE...BUT LIKELY A LITTLE TOO LATE TO MAKE A RUN AT RECORD HIGHS AT FAY AND RDU. HIGHS 79 TO 84. TONIGHT: AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY LATE...WITH MILDER LOWS AMIDST SSW STIRRING IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL STEADILY FALL OVER CENTRAL NC...ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 50 METERS/12 HR THROUGH THE DAY WED...DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH ALOFT THAT SPANS BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL US THIS MORNING. WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY WED...THE NORTHERN ONE...AND PRECEDING DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A BROKEN BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION...THOUGH AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60S DURING FROPA NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING OVER THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODULATED BY BOTH MULTI- LAYERED...MOSTLY CLOUDINESS...AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS ON AVERAGE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLEARING AND COOLER AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EAST AND POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA SPREAD EAST INTO NC. LOWS 45 TO 55. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 252 AM TUESDAY... TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY... BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW... AND LIMITED ANTECEDENT MOISTURE... POINT TO A DRY PASSAGE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A 1032 MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY TO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY... BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FROST LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING... WITH A PROBABLE FREEZE ACROSS TEH PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST... AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA. && .CLIMATE... RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28TH: MAX HI-MIN RDU 86/1919 69/1984 GSO 86/1919 64/1919 FAY 87/1919 65/2010 && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SWLY WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES SHOWING BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WED 18Z-THU 00Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION CROSSES THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SE INTO THE AREA MAY BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH STRONG/BLUSTERY NWLY WINDS.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...SEC CLIMATE...CBL AVIATION...CBL

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