Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 281451 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1045 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY... MORNING UPDATE...LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE DIMINISHING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. MEANWHILE...MORNING STRATUS/FOG HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE HEART OF THE AREA INTO LATE MORNING...AND COULD HAVE A SUPPRESSIVE AFFECT ON CONVECTION DUE TO THE HOUR OR TWO LAG IN HEATING IT WILL CAUSE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT RAPID WARMING AND TEMPS WILL CATCH UP ONCE BREAKS OCCUR...SO WE SHOULD STILL APPROACH ONGOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. LOW CHANCE POP CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AS INSTABILITY CLIMBS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE ABOUT NIL...A WEAK WESTERN PIEDMONT TROF TO PERHAPS ELEVATE POPS A BIT IN THE TRIAD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 258 AM THURSDAY... GENERALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAP OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS DESTABILIZATION...GENERALLY 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OR LESS. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ISOLATED-SLIGHT CHANCE(10 TO 20 PERCENT) AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY... A SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS APPARENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE NEAR THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER WITH A RIDGE ALOFT NEAR THE TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH POSITION. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS SETUP SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT DIURNAL CONVECTION. HAVE ACCORDINGLY CUT BACK POPS WITH JUST A LIMITED AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS INHIBITIVE AND BOTH THE GFS/EC SUGGEST A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAVANAH RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 85 AND 88 DEGREES. THE WESTERLIES SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND THE NC/VA BORDER AREA...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD BE DRY. CHANCES OF CONVECTION INCREASE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD A BIT AND THE UPPER TOUGH AXIS SLIPS EASTWARD. WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE 5-10M. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 87 TO 91 RANGE. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGHS ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH AND MAY REACH INTO NORTHERN NC. THE AIRMASS WILL COOL NOTICEABLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE RAH CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR HENDERSON NC HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM 70 TO 86 ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80 AT THE VA BORDER TO 88 AT THE SC BORDER. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TN VALLEY CLOSES OFF AND BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT LINGERS IN THE REGION BUT MOST LIKELY PERSISTS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL INCLUDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. EXPECT NEAR SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. -BLAES && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY... AREAS OF SUB-VFR FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR 15-16Z. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK: THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLM NEAR TERM...MLM SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...MLM

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