Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 131455 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1055 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AS CENTRAL NC REMAINS BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DESPITE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY TODAY GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING...AS WELL AS REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOW A GOOD CAPPING INVERSION. THEREFORE...EXPECT TODAY TO BE A DRY DAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU. -KRD TONIGHT AND MONDAY: A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY HELPING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS TODAY... APPROACHING CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS ON MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON (AS MLCAPE MAY APPROACH UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG... BEST IN THE WEST AND SOUTH) INTO THE EVENING IN THE STRENGTHENING WAA AND POSSIBLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60S FOR TONIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 E.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY... THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM... CONSISTING OF A PROGRESSIVE BUT DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WAVY SURFACE BOUNDARY... IS STILL TARGETED BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION TUESDAY. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY. THE MAIN BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING (MAINLY EAST). POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH AND BEHIND THIS TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY SPELLED OUT QUITE WELL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AFTER THE WET PERIOD IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE FROST THREAT IN THE MIDDLE... THE END OF THE WEEK STILL HAS SOME CHANCE OF BEING WET AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY... AFTER THE WET PERIOD IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE FROST THREAT IN THE MIDDLE... THE END OF THE WEEK STILL HAS SOME CHANCE OF BEING WET AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY... ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC HAS ALLOWED SOME PATCHY IFR/LIFR FOG TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS. CURRENTLY KFAY IS THE ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED (ALL OTHERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR). EXPECT THE FOG SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE THROUGH 13Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME FLAT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 KFT RANGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE 10 TO 13 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON TIME FRAME OF UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLY MONDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM GENERALLY AROUND 09Z MONDAY ONWARD. OUTLOOK...A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR WED INTO FRI AS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/32 NEAR TERM...KRD/BSD SHORT TERM...32 LONG TERM...32 AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD

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