Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 221923 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 325 PM EDT Sun MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong upper-level low pressure area will settle over the area through Monday, producing unsettled weather. Warmer and drier weather will follow from Tuesday through late week as the upper low moves offshore and high pressure builds across the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 325 PM Sunday... Little change required to the near term forecast. 12Z model guidance in good agreement with the movement of the upper level low dropping southward from the northern Mid-Atlantic to the VA/central NC border region by late tonight-early Monday. Spokes of vorticity pivoting around this feature will cross our region this evening into the first par of the overnight. Loss of heating will limit coverage but still expect 30-40 percent coverage over the far northern piedmont-northern coastal plain. Cooler air associated with the upper level low will result in min temps several degrees cooler than last night with min temps generally in the mid 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /Monday and Monday Night/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 325 PM Sunday... Upper level low begins to pull away from our region by Monday afternoon, and exits offshore Monday night. Perturbations rotating around this feature will trigger scattered showers...mainly across the ne half of central NC, with a few thunderstorms possible during peak heating. With loss of heating, shower coverage expected to diminish with bulk of showers dissipated prior to midnight. High temp Monday highly dependent upon cloud coverage. With peeks of sun this afternoon, temps responded by climbing quickly into the mid 70s. May see a similar scenario Monday though presence of 850mb thermal trough over the region may dampen recovery a tad. Currently forecast temps near 70 far northeast to the mid 70s southwest. If clouds and showers more extensive than current thinking, then max temps may end up being 3-4 degrees cooler across the ne piedmont/northern coastal plain. Subsidence behind the exiting low and advection of a drier air mass should cause clouds to diminish over central NC, departing last over the ne counties. Residual low level moisture may allow areas of fog to develop, though confidence not high enough to mention in the forecast at this time. Min temps comparable to tonight in the mid 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... As of 235 PM Sunday... Conditions are expected to dry out on Tuesday as the upper low pulls further away and shortwave ridging builds over the region. As the low pulls away, the building ridge will keep the main storm track to our north and west, resulting in mostly dry conditions through the majority of the long term period. There are indications that the ridge may weaken some towards the end of the forecast period, allowing an uptick in mostly diurnal type convection. However, given the model disagreement (the GFS, which is known the break ridges down too quickly, breaks down the ridge, while the ECMWF holds strong), will just show a little increase in cloud cover and will bring in a slight chance of precip at the very end of the forecast period. Otherwise, temps will gradually warm up to above normal, from mostly lower 80s on Tuesday to mid/upper 80s for the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Friday/... As of 135 pm Sunday... Ceilings varying between MVFR and low end VFR will persist across central NC through Monday as an upper level low drifts southward from the northern Mid-Atlantic to a position over southern Virginia/central NC by Monday. Bands of scattered showers will pivot around this mid/upper level feature, though occurrence at any of the TAF sites is small. These conditions expected to persist through Monday evening. Aviation conditions expected to improve by Tuesday as the upper level low pulls northeast away from our region. A drier air mass will overspread central NC, leading to a period of vfr through the rest of the work week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...WSS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.