Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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000
FXUS62 KRAH 150011
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
811 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region Friday night and then stall
out along the coastline during the weekend. A stronger cold front
moving through the area Sunday will bring noticeably cooler air for
the beginning of next week, bringing frost and freeze potential
Monday night.
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.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Thursday...
Low pressure is currently near Chicago with a stationary front
extending to the east and a cold front extending to the southwest.
The low will shift east into western New England, with the front
extending along the Appalachian Mountains overnight. While there
will be a slight increase in high clouds overnight, there is no
chance of rain. A light southwesterly wind will allow for much
warmer temperatures overnight than last night - lows will only fall
into the 50s.
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Thursday...
As the New England low pressure system moves over the Atlantic
Ocean, the cold front will shift to the east. While the synoptic
models show precipitation continuing along the front as it crosses
the Appalachians, CAMs show a substantial decrease in shower
coverage as the front moves east. Did not change the forecast too
much from what was inherited, generally keeping chance pops west of
I-95 during the day and slight chance pops by late afternoon east of
I-95. Highs will likely be slightly cooler Friday than today due to
the additional cloud cover, and will range from the mid 70s in the
Triad to the lower 80s in the east.
The cold front will likely be bisecting the forecast area from
northeast to southwest at sunset. The trend of the synoptic models
showing much more precipitation than the high resolution models
continues into the overnight hours, and have gone with chance pops
decreasing from west to east overnight instead of bumping up pops to
likely. Despite the front moving through Friday night, it will take
some time for colder air to move into the region, and after another
warm day on Friday, Friday night`s lows should be similar to
tonight`s values or even a touch warmer, ranging from the mid 50s to
the lower 60s.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...
Zonal flow will result aloft across central NC Saturday, with
ridging along the PAC NW, a cut off low across the Desert Southwest
and a broad trough stretching from the Midwest to the Northeast. A
stalled front near the NC/SC border will keep chances for showers
elevated Saturday across the southern half of the region before the
front washes out. Isolated to scattered showers are possible during
the day, with light accumulations less than one-tenth of an inch
expected. Northwesterly surface flow will quickly switch back
southerly, helping highs to range from the upper 60s N to mid-70s S.
A cold front will dig southeast across the region on Sunday, but
with limited moisture available (PWs around 0.50"), only isolated
showers are possible in the afternoon across most areas and across
the Coastal Plain in the evening. Temperatures ahead of the front
will remain mild, with highs still in the low to upper 70s Sunday.
The cooler air will arrive Monday behind the front and ahead of a
deep upper trough digging across the Mid-Atlantic late Monday. Dry
weather is expected with the passage of the trough due to limiting
moisture, however windy conditions may develop. Northwesterly wind
gusts of 20 to 25 mph are possible late Monday through Tuesday.
These winds, combined with low relative humidity from 20-30 percent,
could generate elevated fire weather conditions on Tuesday.
The ridge across the West will begin to relax by the middle of next
week, and with the departing upper trough, mostly zonal flow will
develop across the region, yet again. Surface high pressure building
into the Southeast will develop west to southwesterly flow through
mid-week, helping highs in the 50s on Tuesday to rebound into the
60s by Wednesday. Sub-freezing temps are also expected across many
areas Tue morning, and with the frost/freeze program beginning
across portions of the south/east on Match 17th, a frost advisory or
freeze warning may be needed for some areas. Lows will rise slightly
Wednesday morning, but could remain frosty through Thursday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 810 PM Thursday...
TAF period: Skies will stay mostly clear across central NC through
late tonight, with only a few passing high clouds. The only aviation
concern overnight will be the threat for low-level wind shear, as a
35-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet develops. However, it should be
marginal given there will likely be some continued light winds (~5-8
kts) at the surface. The best chance is across the northern sites,
though it can`t be entirely ruled out at FAY either. Any threat of
shear will end after sunrise and these winds start to mix to the
surface, with gusts of 15-25 kts possible during the day. Meanwhile,
mid and high level cloud ceilings will begin to move in from NW to
SE during the morning and afternoon. As a cold front approaches, a
line of showers and isolated storms may move through from west to
east from early afternoon into the early evening. High-res models
show it diminishing as it heads east, so the best chance for a
period of sub-VFR conditions is around INT and GSO.
Outlook: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may persist on
Friday night, with a better chance of sub-VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. A slight chance of showers will continue at FAY Saturday, and
again at RDU/FAY/RWI Sunday afternoon/evening. The rest of the
outlook period should be dry. Winds could gust to 30 mph Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...JJT
AVIATION...Danco/Green