Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261039 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 639 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NC TODAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY... A 1018 MB MODIFIED CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH OFF THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY. ALREADY-LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT UP TO A FEW MORE DEGREES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THE RELATIVE DRYNESS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CONTINUED VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT --OBSERVED AT GSO AT LESS THAN 5 C/KM AT 00Z/SUN-- WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...SO ANOTHER DRY DAY IS FORECAST. PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS...OR ABOUT 5 TO 10 METERS HIGHER THAN THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY...SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES WARMER ON AVERAGE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS - MAINLY LOWER 90S. A VORT MAX OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...TO NEAR THE NJ COAST BY 12 MON. THE APPROACH OF THAT FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY MID-LEVEL MOISTENING MAY SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND/OR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MON. NOT AS (UNSEASONABLY) COOL...WITH LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY... A DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT AIDED BY THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES MONDAY. A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS... HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME. HIGHS 90-95. LOWS GENERALLY 70-73 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY... STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GENERATE HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST... THEN POTENTIALLY STALLS OVER THE REGION. BEFORE THEN... SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BUT A MAIN KICKER SHOULD BE LACKING. HOWEVER... ANY DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EITHER MAINTAIN OR KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY APPROACH. WE MAY HAVE TO RAISE POP IN LATER FORECASTS. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY... ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT RWI AND FAY...THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC. INCREASINGLY MOIST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST CHANCE (~30 PERCENT) ON MONDAY.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...PWB LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...26

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