Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 160612 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 112 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A deep upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will lift offshore into the Atlantic tonight. An upper level ridge over the Mississippi river valley will amplify as it builds eastward over the Carolinas Friday into Friday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 100 AM Thursday... Clear skies and a breezy WNW wind (sustained ~15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph) are expected today in assoc/w synoptic subsidence on the western periphery of a powerful upper level low and attendant sfc cyclone lifting NE from New England into the Canadian Maritimes. Cold advection has deposited a cooler/drier airmass in central NC this morning. Although weak warm advection via westerly flow will develop late this afternoon, little airmass modification is expected by sunset. As a result, expect seasonably chilly highs in the upper 40s N/NE to low/mid 50s elsewhere, warmest in the Sandhills and SW Piedmont. Shortwave energy digging SE from the Great Lakes into VA via speedy NW flow aloft on the western periphery of the departing upper trough will result in increasing upper level cloud cover tonight. Overnight lows may vary considerably depending on the timing/amount of upper level cloud cover, lending a fair amount of uncertainty to the temperature forecast tonight. Expect cloud cover to increase after midnight as shortwave energy digs SE toward VA, with broken/overcast cirrus possible over the N/NW Piedmont given a synoptic pattern supportive of orographically enhanced cirrus (speedy NW flow aloft and upstream moisture). Expect lows ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. -Vincent
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 100 AM Thursday... Height rises are expected throughout Fri/Fri night as an amplifying shortwave ridge builds eastward from the MS river valley to the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic. Aside from cirrus during the morning, expect sunny skies with temps rebounding well into the 60s, coolest (lower 60s) in the NE Coastal Plain and warmest (upper 60s) in the SW Piedmont. Expect clear skies and a light SW wind Friday night, with lows ranging from the 30s (rural and low-lying areas where winds go calm) to lower 40s elsewhere. -Vincent
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Wednesday... A southern stream short wave will then quickly move across the region Saturday night and early Sunday, but noted that models are showing this wave shearing out and weakening during that time. With the upper energy and sfc pressure falls quickly shifting off the coast Sunday morning, our area may end up with very light rainfall. As far as rain timing, looks like light rain may move into our far SW zones as early as Sat evening, then the best chance for rain Saturday night, then rain chances quickly ending by mid-day Sun as the wave moves to our east. Given the origins of this system, not anticipating any major airmass changes, so above normal temps will continue on Sun. For early next week (Mon and Tue), dry, very warm conditions are expected as a well-amplified ridge builds over the Southeast. Highs well into the 70s are expected both days. Then temps may fall back several degrees on Wednesday as a northern storm short wave dips down across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 100 AM Thursday... 24-Hour TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. A WNW breeze at 5-10 kt this morning will increase to 10- 15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt between 15-21Z. Winds will decrease to 5-10 kt by sunset and become light/variable overnight. Clear skies will give way to increasing upper level ceilings (10+ KFT) tonight, with skies becoming clear again on Friday. Looking ahead: Aside from a small potential for isolated showers assoc/w an upper level disturbance crossing the area Sat night, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through early next week. -Vincent
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...Vincent SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Vincent

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