Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 210210 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1009 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ALONG WITH A PRECEDING SURFACE COLD FRONT...THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM MONDAY... S/W ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... ALONG WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT FOR THIE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (MOST SITES ONLY WITH TRACE AMOUNTS THOUGH... THUS... KEEPING POPS LOW THOUGH). THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY AROUND DAYBREAK... YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THEN. GIVEN THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT... AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THE REGION... WE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 PM MONDAY... A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN. WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID 40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 225 PM MONDAY... THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC...THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...RESULTING IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SSE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRAVERSES THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 723 PM MONDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 18KTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT KGSO AND KINT. BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...CBL/WSS

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