Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221908 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 207 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 UPDATED FOR FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. DCVA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MARGINAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 18Z-23Z IN THE TRIAD AND 20-01Z IN THE TRIANGLE AND COASTAL PLAIN...SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS THE HRW-NMM INDICATE. ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THE POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT IS STABLE AND BRINGING IN LOW DEW POINTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT THE AREA AND SUPPRESS ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DRY AIR IS MIXED FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT SOON AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. -SSR/VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY... ...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. STRONG COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS DRYING PROCESS ALONG WITH THE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BECOMES POSITIONED OVERHEAD LATE. A RATHER QUICK RETURN SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY (BUT WITH MUCH LESS VELOCITY 8-12 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON). THIS INFORMATION WILL BE COLLABORATED WITH THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE 30 YEAR NORMALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER... SUNNY AND WINDY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (SE). CLEAR AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NE TO MID 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY... TRAILING END OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...BUT DIURNAL TIMING WILL BE FAVORABLE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80...TO PRODUCE RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY (CAPES >1000J) WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION. FRONT REACHES THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MINS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S. SATURDAY WE WILL REMAIN MILD...NEAR 80 AGAIN...DUE TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONGER...BUT DRY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE PRESSED SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SETTLES SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STALL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION AND DETAILS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHETHER WE LOCK IN THE COOL AIR AND GET SOME OVERRUNNING OR WHETHER ITS SCOURED OUT AND WE WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL INTRODUCE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND LET THE FORECAST EVOLVE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1145 AM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOC/W ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH A POTENTIAL. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOC/W SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THU NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SAT. -VINCENT && .FIRE WEATHER /WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...
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AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY... ...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR 900 AM THROUGH 700 PM... NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 30 BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT. IN COORDINATION WITH WAKEFIELD AND BLACKSBURG - AND THE FORESTERY OFFICIALS... WE WILL ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY. .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM... MLM AVIATION...VINCENT FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT

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