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000
FXUS62 KRAH 230634
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
234 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build overhead this morning, then shift to our SE
this afternoon and tonight. A dry cold front will approach from the
NW late tonight, then shift across the region Wednesday. High
pressure to our north will follow the front Wednesday night and
Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 232 AM Tuesday...

Frost Advisory through 800 AM today. Scattered frost is expected in
the rural areas away from town centers.

High pressure will be overhead this morning with clear skies and
light wind. Temperatures will dip into the mid 30s with scattered
frost in outlying areas. The high pressure will shift to our SE this
afternoon allowing a return SW flow at 10 to 15 mph. Highs will
moderate to around 70 for all areas.

A dry front will approach from the NW late tonight. There will be
some increase in clouds tonight, with a period of mostly cloudy
skies expected late tonight over the Piedmont. Lows will be in the
upper 40s and lower 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 232 AM Tuesday...

The dry cold front will move across the area on Wednesday. It will
actually be warmer on Wednesday with a pre-dominantly westerly
flow becoming northwest. The CAA will be delayed until Wednesday night.
A period of cloudy skies will likely accompany the front during the
morning into the early afternoon. A sprinkle can not be ruled out
although no QFP is currently advertised. Otherwise, the skies are
expected to become partly sunny Wednesday afternoon. Highs should
range in the 70s. It will be cooler Wednesday night with the flow
becoming more NE. Models and soundings suggest partly to mostly
cloudy periods on Wednesday night. Lows in the 40s to lower 50s SE.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 241 PM Monday...

An upper level trough will swing across the Northeast Wednesday
morning followed by a weak shortwave swinging across the northern
Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday night. By Friday, upper level ridging
will take over through the weekend  resulting in fair weather for
the latter half of the long term period. At the surface, a low
pressure system centered over the southern portions of Quebec early
Wednesday morning will trail a cold front south along the
Appalachian Mountains. While showers will be persistent west and
north of the mountains latest model guidance is showing much of the
forcing loosing energy east of the mountain range thus limiting the
chance for rain across Central NC. Expect some passing sprinkles
Wednesday afternoon as the front moves across the region. As the
front moves offshore overnight, a cool dry high pressure will build
into the region with northeasterly winds taking over. If conditions
clear out early enough Thursday morning, light NE winds could help
result in some patchy fog across portions of the NE Piedmont and
Coastal Plain. Thursday and Friday are expected to be fair weather
days with mostly sunny skies and temps in the upper 60s north, to
low/mid 70s across the south. As high pressure and upper level
ridging strengthens across our region over the weekend and early
next week temperatures are expected to increase quickly with highs
in the mid/upper 70s Saturday, low to mid 80s Sunday, then by Monday
mid 80s across the entire region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. Expect clear skies and calm to light winds
overnight, with continued clear skies and winds increasing from NW
to SE through the afternoon Tuesday.

Outlook: Largely VFR conditions are expected through Sat. There are
two possible exceptions. First would be a small chance for a brief
period of light showers/sprinkles and/or borderline VFR/MVFR cigs as
a weak cold front moves into/through the area on Wednesday. The
other would be a possible brief period of borderline VFR/MVFR cigs
Thu morn/early aft. However, confidence in both occurrences of
restrictions remains low at this time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-
023>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC/pwb