Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 170224 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 920 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 920 PM TUESDAY... THE LAST SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEPARTED THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COLD FRONT IS ESSENTIALLY EAST OF THE RAH CWA. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS PRETTY WEAK AND THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE H85-H7 LATER FOR SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THESE ARE DIMINISHING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN WITH THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST UNDER THE CLEARING....ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBS IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAVE BEEN INDICATING LESS FOG AS A LIGHT WIND HAS PICKED UP. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME POCKETS OF FOG AROUND GIVEN THAT THE DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DROP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND TEMPS MAY SIMPLY FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET UNDER CLEAR SKIES..WITH GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY... UPPER TROF SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS WE TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL BE BUILDING EASTWARD WITH NEAR NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CONCURRING WITH MOS TRENDS FOR MID 50S UNDER FULL SUN. SOUTHERN TIER COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 60. AN ACTIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST WILL REINVIGORATE THE PACIFIC JET THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AN OPAQUE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL BE RACING EAST IN THE FAST FLOW...AND COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER ALL OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAMPER OVERNIGHT CRASH...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 242 PM TUESDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA... WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW... AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE GOM... AND THEN MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY WINTRY PTYPES WOULD BE IN THE TYPICAL NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT/TRIAD AREA... WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THIS TIME... THE HIGH IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG (1025-1030 MB) AND IS RATHER TRANSIENT... AND RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE FOR THIS EVENT. WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW STILL UNCERTAIN... WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF RAIN ON SATURDAY... TAPERING OFF INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE EAST COAST BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM... AND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING...IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT AND LOW CEILINGS/FOG SCATTER OUT FROM WEST-EAST AS A DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES /VFR CONDITIONS/ AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY SAT/SUN AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLM NEAR TERM...MLM/BLS SHORT TERM...MLM LONG TERM...SEC AVIATION...VINCENT

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