Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 291519 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1115 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1115 AM MONDAY... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STILL LINGERING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WITH A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE FEAR. THE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC REMAINS UNSEASONABLY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST FORCING FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. EVEN WITH THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ON THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT TO THE RAH CWA OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCE CUMULUS CLOUDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT MID/UPPER 60S. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 145 AM MONDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SSE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFT/EVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN (AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS) AND COOLING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD AID IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC BY LATE TUE AFT/EVE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AFTER SUNSET (00-06Z WED)... INDICATING THAT A DISCONNECT MAY EXIST BETWEEN THE BEST DESTABILIZATION/FORCING...LENDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING. AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS (30-40%)...HIGHEST BETWEEN 21-06Z...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE IN THE TRIAD WHERE CONVECTION COULD PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE BETTER FORCING (IN CLOSER VICINITY TO PEAK HEATING). EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST S/SE. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH GRADUALLY RELAXES AND FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING FROM 584DM ON TUESDAY TO 590DM BY EARLY MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY SCATTERED...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS SHOULD KEEP THE FRONTS CONFINED TO OUR NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT THE FAY TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING (10-14Z). AN ISOLD SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE FAY TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK...EXCEPT DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS TUE-THU WHEN CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. -VINCENT && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...PWB/BLAES AVIATION...VINCENT

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