Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251123 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 720 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 156 AM MONDAY... DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MS AND OH VALLEYS....UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN WILL FURTHER/AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE AREA...KEEPING SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AROUND FOR ONE LAST DAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH A STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECTED 8 TO 11 METER RISE IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS A CATEGORY(~3 DEGREES)WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 80S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... FORMIDABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY OWING TO THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY...AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION INSTABILITY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FTHLS...FUELED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER THE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA ATTENDANT TO A SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUSTIFIES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND QUITE POSSIBLY INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF THE OVER-ZEALOUS GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF US 1. WHILE IT FEEL WARMER DUE TO RISING HUMIDITY...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. HIGHS 83-87...WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM MONDAY... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL STAGNATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE WAVERING WITH JUST HOW FAR EAST PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT WITH THE FAVORED SOLUTIONS CENTERING AROUND THE ENSEMBLES AND A NOD TO THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS IS A WET OUTLIER...DUE TO FURTHER EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ANY LACK OF FORCING OR JET SUPPORT...WHICH WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THEREFORE HAVE BEEN HESITANT TO REALLY UP THE POPS AND QPF FORECASTS TOO MUCH. THAT BEING SAID...THE BEST POPS WILL BE IN THE WEST EACH DAY WITH WED...THU...AND FRI...ALL HAVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE WEEKEND THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO REALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND THUS A DECREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN. HAVE BACKED THE FORECAST OFF TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FURTHER EAST. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 720 AM MONDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...EXPECT DRY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST....INCREASING AFTER DAYBREAK INTO THE 8 TO 12 KT RANGE... WITH A POSSIBLY A FEW RANDOM GUSTS INTO THE TEENS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT... SUPPORTING AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY. LOOKING AHEAD: A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW A RETURN IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY...BRINGING INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS TUESDAY-THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...CBL

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