Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 080550 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1245 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY... IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE FEAR LIFTING EAST-NE. WHILE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEPART THAN EXPECTED...THIS MAY BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE. SLOWER CLEARING WILL AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP LONGER...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM REACHING FREEZING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. THIS ADDITIONAL TIME WILL ALSO ALLOW ADDITIONAL DRYING ON AREA ROADWAYS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE. MIN TEMPS BY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 WEST TO THE LOWER 30S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY... THERE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ITS KICKER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAVE TO A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SOUTHERLY WIND...GUSTING TO 20-25KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING AND MOISTEN...YIELDING STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LOOSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL KEEP THIS ALL LIQUID DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES AND A PATTERN THAT OFTEN FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN THAT CHANGES TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST VA (PER A LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS). THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SECOND BAND IS LOW AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE VALUES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AND COLD ADVECTION STARTS TO KICK IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY... COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION (NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST... ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/ FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE. OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU AND AGAIN ON SUN. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1245 AM MONDAY... FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...2 AVIATION...BADGETT

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