Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 010225 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1024 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE... A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY... A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY- CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS... ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS 69-72. -GIH && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 900 PM MONDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: INT/GSO: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (09-13Z). OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. RDU/FAY/RWI: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM WINDS...MOIST AIRMASS...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT EITHER LOW CEILINGS OR LOW VISBYS IN DENSE DOG...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: THE RDU TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. -VINCENT LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...VINCENT

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