Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190642 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 145 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross central North Carolina early this morning. High pressure will build over the region today through Monday, before moving off the Carolina coast on Tuesday. Low pressure will form near Florida and track northeastward along the Southeast coast during mid week. && .NEAR TERM /Today through tonight/...
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As of 145 AM Sunday... The band of showers is making its way through central NC early this morning, ahead of a potent cold front. As anticipated, the SW winds within a shallow but well-mixed boundary layer ahead of the front have tapped into even stronger winds just a couple thousand feet up, which showed up well in last evening`s observed 925 mb plots where winds were 35-50 kts. Periodic gusts of 25-35 kts will remain common until frontal passage around 08z-13z. Downslope drying and deep subsidence and stabilization post-front will swiftly clear skies out by mid to late morning areawide. The tight MSLP gradient behind the front and observations of 25-40 kts at 1000-2000 ft AGL support gusty NW winds (12-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph) for much of the day. Despite morning thicknesses bottoming out around 30 m below normal, insolation should offset the cold air advection a bit, and expect daytime highs of 53-61 (although most places are seeing their calendar day "highs" right now). Clear skies and diminishing winds are expected tonight as the surface high center draws closer. Taking a degree or so off statistical guidance based on good radiational cooling favors highs of 27-34. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM / /...
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As of 301 PM Saturday... To be updated shortly.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 205 PM Saturday... Mid level ridging will keep the area rain-free for Monday into early part of Tuesday. From later Tuesday into Friday a trough will dominate the pattern over the eastern US bringing a chance for some rain to the local area. Best chances for rain will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and again Thursday into Thursday night as waves of low pressure move from the Gulf of Mexico across Florida to off the southeast coast. Temperatures Thursday night will drop into the 30s but confidence is very low for frozen precipitation to mix in with any rainfall. A rather flat west to east flow develops Friday night and Saturday with dry and seasonable weather for central North Carolina. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Thursday/... As of 1250 AM Sunday... Adverse aviation conditions are expected early this morning, in the first 4-6 hours of the TAF valid period, but will be followed by high-confidence VFR conditions from mid morning onward. A band of showers and gusty winds from the SW will cross the area quickly early this morning ahead of a cold front. A short period of MVFR cigs but mostly VFR (perhaps briefly MVFR) vsbys in showers is possible at all sites from west to east 06z-12z. Low level wind shear remains possible areawide as a 45-55 kt jet from the SW at around 1800-2000 ft AGL moves over the area. Cold frontal passage will feature an abrupt shift of winds from SW to NW, still gusty behind the front but winds will be reduced. After 12z (except after 14z at RWI), skies will clear out, with gusty winds from the NW persisting through the day. Winds will diminish after nightfall, with continued clear skies and unrestricted vsbys. Looking beyond 06z Mon, VFR conditions are likely through Tue as high pressure dominates at the surface. MVFR cigs are possible Tue night as low level moisture streams up and over a frontal zone sitting along the NC coast. Low pressure tracking NE along this front through Wed may bring sub-VFR conditions to RWI/FAY, while locations further inland are more likely to stay VFR. VFR conditions are likely areawide Thanksgiving Day as cool high pressure noses into central NC from the NW and the frontal zone shifts further SE away from NC. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Franklin AVIATION...Hartfield

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