-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
686
FXUS62 KRAH 280118
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
915 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure off the mid-Atlantic states settles south over the
next several days, southwesterly flow will bring an extended period
of above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As 915 PM Saturday...

Skies remain mostly cloud across the area this evening. However,
models indicate possible thinning in both the mid and high level
clouds by daybreak as the better moisture shifts offshore. Light
southeasterly winds will result in milder overnight temps. Lows
generally 55-60.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Saturday...

The offshore surface high pressure will drift south on Sunday,
aiding to shift low level winds from the south to the southwest. The
westerly component will reduce the marine influence, although
overall dewpoints will be on the increase. However, no chance of
rain is in the forecast for tomorrow. Sunday will be the first in a
string of warm days, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to the
lower 80s. Overnight lows should be about a category warmer than
last night, varying from 55 to 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 222 PM Saturday...

Monday will see continued ridging aloft while surface high pressure
remains off the Southeast coast. This will yield another dry day
with highs in the low to mid 80s, while lows will be mild in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Upstream from NC however, a developing
southern stream trough is likely to produce showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the Deep South on Monday, the
remnants of which are likely to make Tuesday`s forecast particularly
challenging.

The trough will shift eastward Tuesday morning and is likely to
cross the mountains into the Piedmont late Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Warm/moist advection ahead of the trough will
likely allow for MLCAPEs to climb into the 250-500 J/KG range, but
there are model scenarios which also bring considerable remnant
cloudiness into the area during the day which would limit the amount
of instability present. Similarly, other scenarios develop
convection along the mountains but show it struggling to maintain
itself as it downslopes into the Piedmont. NBM guidance still
suggests 20-30 PoPs across the western Piedmont, with lower values
to the east, and that fits well with today`s 00Z/12Z ensemble data.
Temperatures will be a challenge but even with the potential for
increasing clouds throughout the day, highs should easily reach the
mid 80s (possibly upper 80s in the southeast).

Weak upper ridging will follow the departing trough across the
western Piedmont on Wednesday, although the upper low will be slow
to move off the coast and there is the potential for at least some
scattered showers across the eastern half of the forecast area
during the day Wednesday. Temps remaining above normal in the
mid/upper 80s.

Forecast confidence begins to decrease for the Thursday - Saturday
period as an upper low ejects from the Central Rockies and broad
southwesterly flow takes hold over the southeastern CONUS. A series
of weak waves embedded within the flow are likely to move through
the area Thursday and Friday, ahead of a sharper longwave trough
axis on Saturday. Ensemble solutions with respect to rainfall timing
vary quite a bit, but all generally agree that amounts will be
light. 20-40 PoPs will be maintained primarily during diurnally
favored time periods Thursday through Saturday, along with above
normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 740 PM Saturday...


VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. OVC/BKN ceilings
tonight will become BKN/SCT as mid/high clouds move over the region
overnight and early morning. Light S/SE winds this evening will
become S/SW winds by morning with SW winds of 5-10kts by the
afternoon. A brief period of low stratus/fog could develop between
early morning across portions of the Sandhills as low level moisture
moves in from the south, but did not include with the 00z TAF as
confidence is too low.

Outlook: As is usual, the NAM soundings are a little more aggressive
showing low VFR clouds Monday and Tuesday mornings than the GFS
soundings, but do not think this will amount to any ceilings. The
primary chance for showers/thunderstorms in the extended forecast
will be on Tuesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...ca/Green