Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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230 FXUS62 KRAH 220618 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 157 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A mid to upper level trough will linger over the eastern Carolinas through the end of the week. Otherwise, surface high pressure will extend south across the middle Atlantic states through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 920 PM Thursday... Just an isolated shower or two remaining across the far southwest portion of the area, otherwise expect the rest of the night to be dry. With the scattered rain from earlier this aft/eve and dewpoint depressions decreasing to 4 degrees or less between midnight and daybreak, patchy fog will likely develop across much of Central NC tonight. Lows will likely bottom out in the mid 60s with light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 AM Friday... The upper ridge building to our NW is expected to edge SE to encompass the mid-Atlantic states and our region. Warm and dry weather expected with lows in the mid to upper 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s (near 90 in the Sandhills).
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 215 AM Friday... Most attention will be focused on TC Maria and the NHC official track. Currently, models and the NHC continue to suggest a northward movement, remaining well offshore of the Outer Banks mid week. This still can change, with the strong mid/upper trough expected to dive SE from Canada late week into the weekend - finally ending the threat for awhile. We will continue the dry and seasonably warm conditions for our region. Highs generally in the mid to upper 80s, lows in the mid 60s (with typical climatological variability) each day. There should be a large increase in POP by next weekend if the models advertised pattern change evolve as currently depicted. This strong developing trough from the Midwest to the Great Lakes and NE states would also bring a significant cool down next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 AM Friday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Surface high pressure will build/extend into the area today, while the mid/upper level trough is forecast to sink to the south and east of the area. This will lead VFR conditions, outside of any patchy pre-dawn sub-VFR visbys. Any pre-dawn sub-VFR visbys are expected to be MVFR at worst, except at fog prone KRWI, where MVFR to LIFR conditions will be possible. Any sub-VFR conditions will quickly end around sunrise (generally by 12Z). Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to mostly sunny to party sunny skies on Friday, with light and variable winds. Outlook: Patchy radiation fog will be possible each morning, mainly at RWI and FAY, with VFR conditions -under the influence of high pressure centered north of our region- otherwise anticipated through early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...BSD/MWS

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