Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 061851 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 230 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST VA LIFTING NORTHEAST. MORNING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIATION OF CUMULIFORM CLOUDINESS IS UNDERWAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AREA ARE IN RESPONSE TO DPVA AND ARE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE TRIAD. SCT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INCREASES AND LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVEN BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 86 TO 92 RANGE LOOK GREAT. CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AN END LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BLAES && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY... AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. MODELS DO SHOW A VERY SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 150 PM MONDAY... GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40) POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 240 PM MONDAY... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW... WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z. A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES
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&& ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22 NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION..BLAES

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