Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261633 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A surface front will stall over SC through this afternoon, then retreat north through NC as a warm front later tonight and Thu. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1020 AM Wednesday... Little change to the near term forecast. 12Z upper air analysis depicts a weak, narrow ridge of sfc high pressure nosing southwestward across central NC. This weather system has helped to shunt a stalled sfc front well south into SC. Low level ely flow around this high has resulted in a with the boundary n upslope component across western NC. This flow has aided in the development of a deck of stratus which has spread east into the western fringe of the western Piedmont. In our region, this deck of clouds is more prominent across sections of the Triad. As the day wears on, mixing of drier air from aloft will aid to gradually erode this cloud deck, yielding mostly-partly sunny skies this afternoon. The low level easterly flow will maintain a slightly cooler than normal air mass over central NC. Afternoon temperatures in the mid- upper 80s anticipated. With dewpoints generally in the low-mid 60s, it should feel tolerable for late July. Convective chances still appear minimal, though a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out across the southern Piedmont where the atmosphere will be a tad wetter/better instability compared to the rest of the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... High pressure aloft over south-central U.S. will try to ridge eastward into the region, however an upper low over GA/FL and the amplifying trough over the Northeast will largely inhibit it. The previous surface front will have fully retreated northward and eastward out of the region, with warm, moist southerly flow and a lee-trough taking it`s place over the region. The next frontal system out west will continue to approach and impinge on the area through Thursday night. As a result, much of the day Thursday should be dry, however there will be increasing clouds and chances for convection through the overnight period. Best chances for showers and storms overnight should be restricted to the north and northwest. Expect highs in the upper 80s NW to low 90s south and overnight lows again returning to the low to mid 70s. && The temperature & dew point sensor at site KFAY, located at the Fayetteville Regional Airport, is malfunctioning. NWS technicians have turned the sensor off and ordered parts to repair it. At this time, we expect the sensor to be returned to service early next week. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 430 AM Wednesday... A vigorous mid-level shortwave trough/compact upper low will dive SEWD through the Ohio Valley on Friday, and then through the the Mid-Atlantic region Friday night and into the day on Saturday before moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Saturday evening/night. A surface low will undergo modest deepening over the northern Mid- Atlantic states as it comes under the increasing influence of the strong 80 to 100 meter synoptic scale height falls attendant to the digging mid-level trough. As the surface low shifts off the Mid- Atlantic Coast late Friday night, it will drag a cold front SE through the area late Friday night. There remains much uncertainty with the evolution (timing/location) of strong to severe convection across central NC, particularly given the potential for lead shortwave energy/disturbances ejecting east well ahead of the primary shortwave trough to support upstream convection/MCS into the region as early as Thursday night/Friday morning and the subsequent effects on heating/destabilization across the area later Friday afternoon. For now, will carry chance pops Friday through the first half of the day on Friday, increasing to likely pops Friday afternoon and into the evening with the arrival of the better forcing. If sufficient instability can develop, strengthening low-level kinematic winds in the 925-850mb layer of 30- 35kts could support a threat for severe storms across the area Friday afternoon and evening, with damaging straight-line winds the greatest threat. Stay tuned. Can`t rule out an isolated shower across the area on Saturday as the upper trough/vort max swings through the area. Otherwise skies will be clearing with a noticeably cooler and drier airmass in place through the weekend. Highs Saturday through Monday will top out mostly in the mid 80s...3-5 degrees below normal, with morning lows in the mid to upper 60s. The front, meanwhile, will be stalled along the coast, with potential for development of a surface low along the front that could pull moisture back into at least the eastern sections of the state by midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1230 PM Wednesday... An area of high pressure extending across central NC this afternoon will provide VFR conditions through Thursday. The exception will be pockets of MVFR/IFR visibility due to fog overnight tonight through daybreak Thursday or patches of MVFR ceilings. The fog appears most probable in vicinity of of KFAY and KRWI between 09Z-12Z Thu. While VFR parameters anticipated for much of Thursday, an approaching cold front will increase the risk of scattered convection across the northern counties late Thursday but more so Thursday night. At this time, it appears scattered convection may be in the vicinity of the Triad terminals and KRDU after 02Z Friday, persisting into Friday morning. Additional scattered convection and associated MVFR parameters appear probable across central NC Friday through Friday night as the sfc cold front drifts southward. A drier, more stable atmosphere and attendant VFR parameters expected Saturday through Monday.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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Technicians have completed the bulk of the first phase of the Service Life Extension Project (SLEP) upgrade and the data quality is sufficient for the radar to return to service. Additional radar adjustments resulting in brief outages are still possible through Thursday.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...CBL/mlm AVIATION...WSS EQUIPMENT...RAH

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