Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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533 FXUS62 KRAH 210746 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 246 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will extend along the East Coast through early today. An upper-level disturbance will cross the Southeast states tonight into Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM Tuesday... North Carolina will be under the influence of ridging aloft and ridging at the surface from a high centered over the New England coast. A closed low aloft is expected to break away from the northern stream trough by 12Z this morning over the ARKLATEX region. The aforementioned low will slide southeast over the Gulf Coast through tonight as the weak remnants of the northern stream trough approach Central NC. The surface ridge will linger until late in the day/evening, with the southeasterly return flow increasing as the center of the high slides southeast off the Mid-Atlantic coast and the ridging over the area weakens. Much of the precipitation associated with this system will be displaced well south of the area and the northern stream energy won`t pass overhead until Wednesday. As a result, have kept the forecast dry through this evening, with a slight chance of showers developing over the far west late tonight. Temperatures will be largely dependent on the return flow around the high as it slides southward, but for now expect temperatures to top out in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees this afternoon. Lows should range from the mid 40s northeast to low 50s southwest.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 AM Tuesday... The closed low aloft will slide further southeast through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and over FL through Wednesday night, taking the best moisture with it. There is still a chance for some light rain to occur over Central NC on Wednesday as the weakened northern stream trough passes overhead, but exactly where the rain will fall is somewhat uncertain. Regardless, skies will be cloudy throughout the day and rainfall totals are not expected to be very high. The highs on Wednesday (like the temperatures the previous 24 hours) will depend on the return flow into the region from the high offshore. For now, expect a 10-15 degree temperature gradient from NW to SE (60 degrees NW to low-mid 70s SE). There will be enhanced east-southeasterly flow into the southeast U.S. to southern Mid- Atlantic coast Wednesday night as a result of being sandwiched between the Gulf low and the high over Bermuda. Though the best warm, moist advection will be south of the NC coast, expect a continuation of the above normal temps and overnight lows warmer than the previous night (low to mid 50s NW to SE).
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 247 PM Monday... The pattern begins to change for midweek and although we stay warm, a wetter pattern will bring more clouds and some chances for rain late in the week. That being said no day looks like a washout at this point and rainfall totals for the week look only to be about a half an inch at the most with some locations receiving very little rain. Temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s throughout the period. To break it down further, Wednesday will bring our fist chance for rain as a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico dives southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. As a surface high sinks southward, central NC will be on the northern fringes of this system and any rain that does occur will be a result of some isentropic lift and moisture advection from the south. Best chances will be in the western part of the forecast area. On Thursday a developing low pressure system to the west will establish a warm front along our northern border and begin to advect northward. As a result, best chances for any appreciable rain Thursday will be along the VA border counties. For the most part Friday looks dry as the low to the west tracks northeastward into the Great Lakes. As it does so frontogenesis will occur just west of the Appalachians as a cold front moves into North Carolina Saturday morning and across our area by Saturday late afternoon/evening. This may be our best chance for rain during the long term with a non-zero chance of some Thunder, especially in the southeast where some better instability may be allowed to develop. Behind the front, high pressure moves in for Sunday signaling a return to clear skies and dry weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH /... As of 1210 AM Tuesday... 24-Hour TAF period: Fairly high confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Low confidence in the development of a brief period of low stratus/fog around daybreak, thus will keep TAFs VFR. Broken to overcast cigs at 20-25 kft will persist through the period, with few to scattered clouds at 3-4 kft developing during the day Tuesday. Low stratus could develop at the very end of the TAF period, but will keep it out at this issuance. Winds will be calm to light and variable overnight, becoming predominantly southeasterly around 5 kts during the day/evening. -KC Looking ahead: We will see a chance for late-night and early-morning sub-VFR fog/stratus repeat areawide each day through the remainder of the week. MVFR to IFR conditions with a few showers are possible late Tue night through Wed as an upper trough crosses the region. A cold front will cross the area Sat, bringing a chance for showers and MVFR cigs. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...KC/Hartfield

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