Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 200841 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 340 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the area today will shift offshore late tonight and into the day on Tuesday. A weak low pressure will develop off the Florida coast on Tuesday, and then track quickly northeastward along the Southeast coast Tuesday night. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 340 AM Wednesday... High pressure and a deep dry air column will dominate today with nary a cloud in the sky until the arrival of some thin cirrus clouds late this afternoon/early evening. It will be a chilly start this morning, with 12z low-level thicknesses averaging around 20 to 23 meters below normal, more typical of late December as oppose to mid/late November. Highs today a good 5 to 7 degrees below normal, ranging from mid 50s north to upper 50s/near 60 south. Aforementioned thin cirrus Monday evening will spread north and possibly thicken tonight within the increasing SWLY flow aloft, in response to a southern stream shortwave trough advancing east across the western and central GOM. Meanwhile, high pressure over the area, will quickly scoot east and offshore. The NAM is quicker with the onset of southerly low-level moisture return late tonight, advecting a stratus cloud deck into southern/southeastern portions of the forecast area during predawn hours. Lows in the lower to mid 30s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 340 AM Wednesday... The aforementioned southern stream shortwave trough over the GOM will progress eastward across the Florida peninsula during the day on Tuesday, and then lift northeast along the SE Coast Tuesday evening/night. The associated weak spin-up of surface low pressure area over the eastern GOM will quickly track NE up the SE coast, remaining offshore. This wave will support yet another quick hitting- light precip event across the area late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, with bulk of measurable precip expected to remain along and east of US 1, where low-level moisture transport will be strongest. Expect QPF amounts to range from a trace across the western Piedmont a tenth of an inch across the Coastal Plain counties. Under a thickening cloud cover, temperatures will range from lower to mid 50s across the NW Piedmont to lower/mid 60s SE. Much warmer overnight lows in the lower 40s NW to near 50 SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 PM Sunday... The medium range portion of the forecast will be dominated by a trough across the eastern portion of the country, with a series of disturbances tracking across both the northern tier of the country and the Gulf Coast States/Southeastern U.S. Temps on Tuesday will be highly dependent on how much clouds and if we see any precip. For now will keep temps near to slightly below normal, generally ranging from the mid to upper 50s NW to the mid 60s SE. The best chance for rain is expected to be on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, albeit a low chance pop for some light rain. Quick moving northern stream disturbance is expected to move through the area on Wednesday morning ending any threat for precip, with surface high pressure building back into the area. However, another disturbance is expected to lift northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico and track along the baroclinic zone off the Southeast U.S Thursday into Friday. Medium range have trended further eastward with the track, resulting in dry conditions across central NC. However, given the lack of good run to run consistency will hold onto a slight chance of rain across the southeastern half of the area on Thursday into Thursday night, with temps turning colder by Thursday, with highs in the 50s, with some upper 40s. High are expected to rebound to near seasonal norms by Saturday, generally in the upper 50s to 60s. Yet another northern stream trough is expected to move across the area Saturday, resulting in another cool down for Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 AM Monday... VFR parameters across central NC will persist through Tuesday as an area of high pressure will be in control of our weather. Sfc winds tonight through Tuesday will be variable at less than 10 kts. VFR parameters appear highly probable through the majority of the upcoming week. The exception will be a chance for MVFR ceilings Tuesday night through early Wednesday as an area of low pressure skirts northeastward up the Southeast U.S. coast. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...WSS/CBL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.