Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 302000 CCA AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 400 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY... A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT NOW EMERGING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE STORMS ARE IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT (INSTABILITY-WISE) RIGHT NOW WITH INSTABILITY TRENDING DOWN TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MOVING EAST OF I-95 AFTER 8PM. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE CELLS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CG LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESP ALONG/EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE DCAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA... PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...BEFORE ALL ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA AND ENDS AFTER 06-07Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FORECAST THINKING...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO PRECLUDE THE RISK FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER...SINCE EVEN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ERROR IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT/MOISTURE COULD MEAN A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS SAMPSON COUNTY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE REST OF CENTRAL NC EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME. ONLY A SMALL DROP IN THICKNESSES IS FORECAST...SO HIGHS WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL...89-94. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1200 PM THURSDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE UNDERGOING FURTHER AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DOWNSTREAM IN THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...PERSISTING TROUGHING /CYCLONIC FLOW/ ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THOUGH NUMEROUS SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES /SHORTWAVES/ WILL NO DOUBT BE PRESENT IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN... THE BULK OF NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/WEST THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR (OR PERHAPS INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT) DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXCEPT IN EASTERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN (RIDGE/TROUGH AXES) OVER THE LOWER 48 WOULD RESULT IN INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1... THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY... ISOLATED PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND MAY PRESENT A BRIEF AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD THEY PASS OVER ANY OF THE SITES. IMPACTS WOULD BE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBY...AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KT. THE RISK FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD OUR EASTERN TAF SITES LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO THE RISK FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD: THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT ANY NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PATTERN MAY RESULT IN WORSE CONDITIONS THAN ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...RAH

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