Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 262328 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 328 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge will extend across the region through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Friday... Tonight, low level moisture and instability axis extends roughly sw- ne in vicinity of the highway 1 corridor. With the core of the mid/upper level anti-cyclone covering the northern piedmont and foothills, subsidence over our northern counties will likely inhibit any convective development. Thus, best shot of isolated convection will remain over our southern piedmont counties and possibly the sandhills. This convective threat will end around sunset. Otherwise, expect clear-partly cloudy skies with overnight temperatures in the low-mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Friday... Core of mid/upper level ridge drifts northward into central Appalachians/northern Mid-Atlantic during this period. Resultant easterly flow over central NC Saturday will yield in modest moisture advection. Still, this added moisture coupled with strong heating will lead to a slight/moderately unstable atmosphere, supportive of isolated-scattered convection in the afternoon-evening hours. Based on position of a weak sfc trough, and the weak upslope flow, expect highest threat for convection to occur over the coastal plain (associated mainly with the inland moving sea breeze), and the western piedmont. With the core of the hot air to our north, should see afternoon temps lower a couple of degrees from this afternoon values. Highs Saturday low-mid 90s (still a solid 5-8 degrees above normal). Bulk of convection will dissipate within an hour or two of sunset. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies with overnight temps in the low- mid 70s. Sunday, a relatively moist and unstable atmosphere will persist over central NC. However, lack of a trigger aloft will limit convective development with most of the convection confined to the south and east sections of the forecast area. Similar to Saturday, bulk of convection will dissipate with loss of heating. Slow weakening of mid/upper level ridge will result in high temps near 90-lower 90s. Low temps Sunday night generally in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 310 PM Friday... Medium range models appear to be coming into a bit better agreement on showing the weak tropical low located between the northeastern coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas shifting west-northwestward across FL and into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico/near the western FL coast this weekend into early next week before slowly lifting north and eventually northeastward. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty with regard to the timing of this system and timing of a s/w trough approaching/amplifying in the northern stream mid to late week (which will play a key role in our precip chances mid to late week). Further northward across our latitude, a weak mid/upper level low is forecast to move westward late Sunday into Monday and into eastern portions of the Carolinas. This will provide eastern/southeastern portions of the area with a chance of mostly diurnal showers and storms on at least Monday. The mid level low is forecast to linger across eastern portions of the area on Tuesday, before being suppressed by a approaching northern stream s/w trough. However, with still a significant spread in some of the models and ensembles with regard to the track and timing of the possible tropical system and potential moisture possibly pulled northward and across eastern portions of our area we will keep a chance of showers and storms across eastern portions of the area through midweek. As the northern trough further amplifies and shifts eastward across our area an associated cold front will move through the area on Thursday into Friday (with a possibly some showers and storms areawide accompanying the front). High temps are expected to generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with mid to upper 80s on Friday. Lows are expected to be near 70 to the mid 70s. However, if the track and/or intensity were to change with the aforementioned tropical system, then High temps may be lower midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions prevailing across the area and should continue to do so overnight. Models indicate some brief drops into the MVFR range are possible closer to sunrise but confidence is fairly low at this time and have left any restrictions out of the TAFs at this time. Some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible at all locations on Saturday afternoon. Most of these storms should remain sub-severe. Winds will remain northeasterly on Saturday at 5-10 kts. Some scattered to broken ceilings around 4 kft will be prevalent during the afternoon hours. Long Term: Low rain and thunder chances will prevail for the next several days keeping conditions mostly dry with some isolated to scattered convection during the afternoon hours, particularly across the east. Otherwise mostly VFR conditions are expected.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...ELLIS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.