Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 210527 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 128 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring dry and seasonably hot weather to the region for the start of the work week. A strong cold front will bring increasing rain chances for the middle of the week, then move east and off the coast by Friday, with cooler drier weather in its wake. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 925 PM Sunday... Small cluster of convection over the south and west sections of Stanly County producing locally heavy rainfall due to the showers/storms remaining nearly stationary. radar estimates of 2-3 inches nay have fallen southwest of Albemarle between Oakboro and Locust. Weak convergence along an inverted sfc trough with added moisture influx of tropical air mass triggered this small area of convection this evening. Near term model guidance suggest the moisture influx weakening through the evening hours, so should see this cluster gradually diminish in coverage/intensity through 03Z. Otherwise weak high pressure to our north coupled with an expanding area of high pressure aloft should maintain warm and dry conditions across the remainder of central NC overnight. Patchy fog will develop after 06Z, becoming most prominent by 10Z then quickly burn off by 12Z. Overnight temperatures primarily in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 PM Sunday... The forecast looks fairly good for Monday and the eclipse time, thanks to ridging both sfc and aloft. While the pattern suggests dry fair weather, forecast soundings suggest that some mostly- shallow cu may form as the afternoon progresses, with a notable increase in H8-H7 moisture west of the Triangle region, while areas from Raleigh south and east remain drier in that layer. That would suggest the greatest coverage of cu clouds west of the Triangle and lesser cu coverage east, and best sky conditions from Raleigh south and east. With similar airmass as today, look for afternoon highs in lower 90s along with heat index readings in the mid to upper 90s. Lows Monday night 70 to 75. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 PM Sunday... Tue/Tue Night: High pressure will shift offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast and a cold front will progresses southeast through the Ohio valley Tue/Tue night as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens in advance of an upper level low progressing across southern Ontario. As a result, rich low-level moisture will return to the Carolinas via southerly return flow and isold convection will be possible invof a pre-frontal trough in the lee of the Appalachians Tue aft/eve. Expect above normal highs 90-94F, warmest Sandhills, with lows Tue night in the lower/mid 70s. Wed-Thu Night: The aforementioned cold front will progress slowly SE through NC Wed/Wed night. The front may stall invof the Carolina coast Wed Night/Thu as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens over the region, however, high pressure should build southeastward into central NC Thu night as troughing aloft shifts to the eastern seaboard. Expect near normal temperatures Wed/Wed night, followed by below normal temperatures Thu/Thu night. Expect above normal chances for convection in assoc/w the front Wed/Wed night. Uncertainty increases w/regard to the position of the stalled front on Thu. Above normal chances for convection should persist in far E/SE portions of the state, including portions of the SE Coastal Plain. Lingering precipitation should exit from NW-SE or W-E Thu night. Fri-Sun: At this time, expect below normal temperatures and dry conditions Fri through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds eastward from the Great Lakes into New England and a pronounced surface ridge extends southward into the Carolinas, maintaining a cool/dry airmass over central portions of the state. -Vincent && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 127 AM Monday... Will follow persistence forecast with fog/stratus expected again at eastern terminals(KRWI and KFAY) between 06 to 12z, where higher sfc dewpoints in the mid 70s continue to reside. There is a bit more high level cloudiness than last night, which that could impede dense fog development. For now will carry IFR at KFAY and LIFR at fog-prone KRWI. Some marginal MVFR ground fog is also possible at KRDU. Any fog/stratus should lift between 12 to 14z, with generally dry VFR conditions for the afternoon and evening. Outlook: Diurnal showers and thunderstorms as well as morning fog/low stratus return for Tuesday. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday and settle near the coast on Thursday providing an opportunity for adverse conditions during this time period before returning to VFR for the end of the week and into the weekend.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...CBL/Ellis

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