Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 150521 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 120 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY THEN DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY... THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE THAT DEVELOPED LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT...ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND DRAW THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HIGHS CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA FAIRLY CLOUDY. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT THE RETURN OF BETTER DEEP MOISTURE AND PW OVER 1.5 INCHES IS BRIEF MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS... A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROSPECTS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOOK LIMITED. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING TO A CHANCE MONDAY EVENING...THEN DECREASING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY... THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PERSISTING NEAR THE COASTLINE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INITIALLY AND THEN REINFORCED WITH A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK...WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME A STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST AND EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FL/GA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR A COOLER THAN AVERAGE PERIOD WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS BUT WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY RESULTING FROM SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A DISTURBANCE IN THE DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. BEYOND THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS INT THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. -BLAES && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 120 AM MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...AND MAY LAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. BETWEEN 12Z-16Z...MAY SEE POCKETS OF IFR CEILING. BETWEEN 19Z-21Z...EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN BY 00Z TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 10KTS)...AND SLOWLY VEER FROM THE CURRENT EAST-NORTHEAST TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY 22Z. A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILING ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHWEST. NE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 8K FT...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...WSS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.